Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by magentaflame »

I wonder if they have factored in the super spreaders? We've recently found young people are spreading it, and they are speaking of the super spreaders that show no symtoms.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by magentaflame »

magentaflame wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:50 pm I wonder if they have factored in the super spreaders? We've recently found young people are spreading it, and they are speaking of the super spreaders that show no symtoms.
I have a question.....if it's just a flu, do 65,000 people die of the flu in Brazil every flu season?
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

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The 'radical' left just wants everyone to have food, shelter, healthcare, education and a living wage. Man that's radical!....ooooohhhh Scary!
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by spot »

magentaflame wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:55 pm I have a question.....if it's just a flu, do 65,000 people die of the flu in Brazil every flu season?
You would need to believe that a reliable count of hospital cases and outcomes, or of death statistics in general, exists in Brazil. It seems unlikely. The place is more comparable with the Wild West than with a civilized post-industrial nation.

If you reckon that the rate people die of Influenza is at least roughly comparable between countries in a given year, much like the average height of waves in a storm or calm weather, and that the figure is generally up-or-down within a half-or-double range of its own average, then the US CDC figures might be illustrative. They're at https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

Influenza results in one death per thousand symptomatic cases involving a tenth of the population, annually, give or take a wide margin.

Brazil has two thirds of the population of the US, so Brazil might average 25,000 deaths a year from Influenza. In a very bad year they could have got to 65,000 deaths, maybe two or three times a century, unless it's an entirely new strain such as the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.

It needs to be in perspective. If a country loses 1% of its population to death in a year from all causes then it had a very good year. If it loses 3% then it's been a catastrophically lethal year, that's a bad figure even in wartime. These Covid-19 deaths are killing, so far, well under 0.1% of the population of even the worst affected country on earth, it isn't adding even a tenth to the normal annual background death count. The worst affected country on earth is the UK if you ignore small insignificant nations like Belgium, not the US or Brazil. There is so far not one country on earth where Covid-19 has made a visible impression on a graph of overall deaths, it's not noticeable.

There are two things to note. Firstly, in countries like the US and Brazil, the totals might easily go 20 times higher than they are at the moment and then it would have become significant. India might end up with the most deaths of all and break 10 million if they bother to keep count which seems improbable. But all of that is mere speculation, you need to ask again in 2022 and then we'll know.

And secondly, Covid-19 is a totally trivial pandemic compared with what might happen in the next one, and if it acts as a wake-up call and stimulates an effective prevention of the next then it might be well worth the cost in lives this year. Nobody was ever going to spend significant money on worldwide pandemic prevention until this happened. We are very lucky. The world dodged a bullet this time.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by spot »

Looking at this week's UK case count I think we can see that the recent low is as low as we're going to get and the curve has turned. You can't say it's going back up, yet. The real question is whether it can be kept to a very slow rise with local flares dealt with promptly.

Meanwhile...

Image


To be fair, by the time they arrive in the post they'd not be infectious. Free enterprise is clearly to be applauded and it's a sort of recycling.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by spot »

Oh dear. One had hoped otherwise.
Immunity to Covid-19 could be lost in months, UK study suggests

Exclusive: King’s College London team found steep drops in patients’ antibody levels three months after infection

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... y-suggests

That's going to fuel the Autumn figures then. Slightly. It would mean the extent of the asymptomatic cases becomes less relevant.

It would be logical if it also applies to vaccine-created immunity as well but that's just me, easily mistaken and uninformed.

If anyone can think how to create a once-a-month tablet, now's the time.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

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spot wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:38 pm Oh dear. One had hoped otherwise.
Immunity to Covid-19 could be lost in months, UK study suggests

Exclusive: King’s College London team found steep drops in patients’ antibody levels three months after infection

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... y-suggests

That's going to fuel the Autumn figures then. Slightly. It would mean the extent of the asymptomatic cases becomes less relevant.

It would be logical if it also applies to vaccine-created immunity as well but that's just me, easily mistaken and uninformed.

If anyone can think how to create a once-a-month tablet, now's the time.
Interesting Kings collage has come out with that . The surgeon general came out with much the same . He went through the number of organs it effects even though people have recovered.
The 'radical' left just wants everyone to have food, shelter, healthcare, education and a living wage. Man that's radical!....ooooohhhh Scary!
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by magentaflame »

well the army is now in charge of our border crossings. We've become a nation of 'checkpoint charlies' . Yet people keep getting waved through because if you checked everyone it would take half a day to get through one checkpoint. People are not happy chappies. Meanwhile we're seeing triple figures a day again.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by spot »

magentaflame wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:50 pm well the army is now in charge of our border crossings. We've become a nation of 'checkpoint charlies' . Yet people keep getting waved through because if you checked everyone it would take half a day to get through one checkpoint. People are not happy chappies. Meanwhile we're seeing triple figures a day again.
I'm sure you'll flatten your minor flare though. Over-reacting is better than under-reacting.

[two paragraphs posted in the wrong thread, I'm moving them]
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by spot »

Ignore this post, false alarm.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by magentaflame »

Barstards!
I realise that there will always be people who either don't care, think they're better than everyone else, or too stupid for words ....but $4000 lesson later? We've been warned. No warnings this time around.



https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-13/ ... FZwM_xU_AA
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by Bryn Mawr »

magentaflame wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:16 pm Barstards!
I realise that there will always be people who either don't care, think they're better than everyone else, or too stupid for words ....but $4000 lesson later? We've been warned. No warnings this time around.



https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-13/ ... FZwM_xU_AA
They deserved every cent of it
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by spot »

The Chicken Liberation Front must be delighted too.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

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magentaflame wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:32 pm
spot wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:38 pm Oh dear. One had hoped otherwise.
Immunity to Covid-19 could be lost in months, UK study suggests

Exclusive: King’s College London team found steep drops in patients’ antibody levels three months after infection

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... y-suggests

That's going to fuel the Autumn figures then. Slightly. It would mean the extent of the asymptomatic cases becomes less relevant.

It would be logical if it also applies to vaccine-created immunity as well but that's just me, easily mistaken and uninformed.

If anyone can think how to create a once-a-month tablet, now's the time.
Interesting Kings collage has come out with that . The surgeon general came out with much the same . He went through the number of organs it effects even though people have recovered.


By contrast, one of the Oxford researchers says:
In order to dispel concerns about re-infections, Gilbert said that the Oxford vaccine should be able to provide ‘a good duration of immunity’ and she is optimistic about it. She also said a vaccine might provide better results than natural immunity acquired when individuals recover from the virus.

"Vaccines have a different way of engaging with the immune system, and we follow people in our studies using the same type of technology to make the vaccines for several years, and we still see strong immune responses," said Gilbert.

"It’s something we have to test and follow over time – we can’t know until we actually have the data – but we’re optimistic based on earlier studies that we will see a good duration of immunity, for several years at least, and probably better than naturally-acquired immunity."

https://www.firstpost.com/tech/science/ ... 56311.html
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by spot »

Is nobody going to say the new comet is a harbinger of doom?

There's too much cloud to see it from here this week.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

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spot wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 5:49 pm Is nobody going to say the new comet is a harbinger of doom?

There's too much cloud to see it from here this week.
Comets are so "last Millennium"
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by spot »

Video of drunken Brits maskless in Magaluf appals Spaniards

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -spaniards
Why is it the Home Office Gestapo can implement their masters' Hostile Environment policy on the one hand, but turn a blind eye to these senseless flag-waving imbeciles once they return from their adventures abroad. Is it impossible to deny them and their reprobate parents the use of passports for the remainder of their worthless lives?
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by spot »

magentaflame wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:50 pm well the army is now in charge of our border crossings. We've become a nation of 'checkpoint charlies' . Yet people keep getting waved through because if you checked everyone it would take half a day to get through one checkpoint. People are not happy chappies. Meanwhile we're seeing triple figures a day again.
Here's a view from the New Scientist this week:
Australia’s border has been closed to non-nationals since 20 March, while Australian citizens and permanent residents have been allowed back in on the condition that they stay in supervised quarantine hotels for two weeks. Most states and territories have deployed police and defence personnel to manage these facilities, but Victoria employed private security contractors.

Several private security contractors have since caught the virus from quarantined individuals, allegedly due to breaches in infection control measures, and then spread it to the wider community. Genomic sequencing has linked a significant number of the state’s new infections back to these security guards, prompting the Victorian government to launch a judicial inquiry.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... t-it-back/
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

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We're in our first wave. Melbourne at the moment, but Sydney will be next. Masks will become mandatory in Melbourne from Wednesday onwards. Second wave will happen when the borders open again apparently. We will be going a couple of years with this bloody thing.

And the 'informing on people' has begun. An interesting topic has arisen in the news. A pizza shop owner called police when someone ordered nine pizzas. In his mind that order was going to a gathering/party so he informed police. Took their money first though. How many pizzas do you order at any one time? I live on my own but I order two slabs every few months to put in the freezer. One garlic and cheese and one tropical.i also do similar when ordering chinese. Will I have police knocking on my door? Someone else informed police that a trainer "seemed" to be training four people out of doors rather than the two allowed. Do you think we'll soon have a taskforce walking the streets and knocking on peoples doors because their kids are playing in the front garden?
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

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spot wrote: Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:13 pm
magentaflame wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:50 pm well the army is now in charge of our border crossings. We've become a nation of 'checkpoint charlies' . Yet people keep getting waved through because if you checked everyone it would take half a day to get through one checkpoint. People are not happy chappies. Meanwhile we're seeing triple figures a day again.
Here's a view from the New Scientist this week:
Australia’s border has been closed to non-nationals since 20 March, while Australian citizens and permanent residents have been allowed back in on the condition that they stay in supervised quarantine hotels for two weeks. Most states and territories have deployed police and defence personnel to manage these facilities, but Victoria employed private security contractors.

Several private security contractors have since caught the virus from quarantined individuals, allegedly due to breaches in infection control measures, and then spread it to the wider community. Genomic sequencing has linked a significant number of the state’s new infections back to these security guards, prompting the Victorian government to launch a judicial inquiry.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... t-it-back/
They still have private contractors who are doing a good job. In that instance it was one security officer from a New Zealand company (they won't say which one ) who had sex with one of the lockdowns. He in turn spread it to other security guards.
So it was just one fuckknuckle . But it goes to show how infectious this virus is. All states and territories did not deploy police or defence personell but they are now.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by spot »

The world lockdowns started in March, and most countries have now taken so much of a financial hit that they can't afford to keep them going or to restart them. We're getting into a phase of selective zoned lockdown around hotspots, where countries maintain any lockdown at all. The exceptions are the countries which achieved tracking, tracing and isolating by a combination of social cooperation and central government order.

The consequence is that for many countries the foothill phase of the pandemic is ending, and the long haul up the mountain is about to start. There was a plateau when China got to grips with their outbreak and most other countries had minimal cases. There was another plateau where most countries managed some form of lockdown. We're back to a slower exponential rise, slower in part because of the zoned lockdown approach but mostly, I think, because large numbers of people are still staying as safe as their circumstance permits - even in America where a significant fraction have just stopped paying any attention. The brakes are still on everywhere but numbers are getting steeper.

Places like India have simply stopped counting deaths entirely as far as I can see. The current US administration is trying very hard to make national statistics uncertain and questionable. The UK figures are still credible. There are parts of the world where the next six months will be nastier than what has happened so far. I don't expect to go to a pub, restaurant or theatre again this year but a lot of people will.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by LarsMac »

I have been reading some papers on studies of the bug, and the immune response.

They seem to be close to figuring out why this has such a huge variation depending on age of patient. They also have made some progress on vaccine development.
Nothing that will solve the problem in the next month or so, but any progress, at all, is good news, these days.

Colorado is seeing a rise in numbers, too. We are pretty much in our own lockdown. I venture out when necessary, but avoid as many people as possible.

We are moving out to the eastern Plains this weekend, where isolation is a way of life. [sigh]
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

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If that's the sort of area where the Ponderosa was then it's very scenic, though I still think the oddest part was Lorne Greene singing Big Bad John quite so effectively.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

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spot wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 12:34 pm If that's the sort of area where the Ponderosa was then it's very scenic, though I still think the oddest part was Lorne Greene singing Big Bad John quite so effectively.
Well, no. The Ponderosa was in the high country near Lake Tahoe and Carson City, Nevada, though much of the scenery was was actually shot on the California side of the Sierras.
Where we will be is damned near Nebraska. It was once a seabed, and that fact is rather obvious, looking at the terrain.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

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LarsMac wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 3:22 pm Where we will be is damned near Nebraska. It was once a seabed, and that fact is rather obvious, looking at the terrain.

Bruce Dern made a film about it. He's an actor I've long admired. The scene in the bar might give a taste of the locale, I approve of bars like that.







I've browsed for a look at the scenery. I ought not hotlink really but it's not as bad as copying images, so here's some views...

Image

Image

Image

What do you do if you come across a fence in the countryside? Can you just jump it and carry on, or would you get shot. There's a fence in that last photo.

Outdoor temperatures vary between 118°F and -47°F, put a rug in your trunk.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by magentaflame »

You can here. Trespass is only after being directed to leave. Even if they have warnings on a gate or fence. That's why farmers have caught on to putting "Bio hazard" signs on their gates. Basically it stops animal rights activists from coming onto farm property and taking pictures etc before they are told to leave.
I never jump a fence without permission but for one reason only. When i was a kid and out with my brother and sister and dad rabbiting....we went through a paddock i don't remember much about it except for having my sister and I yelled at to get across the fence again and dad in full gait throwing my brother bodily over the fence .....then we saw the bull. Dad's can fly you know. Once he knew he had his little ducklings all safe around him again he stared at the bull now on the fence line and laughed his head off at it. ( i don't think he found it funny generally. I think it was a mixture of fear, relief, and the fact he managed to out run a bull. ) lol lol lol
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

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but....getting back to covid.... Ya gotta love humans eh?
As of Sunday night the entire state is under mandatory wearing of masks. I can't help get the feeling that the whole class has detention because of what the bad kids did down the back of the class. Along with my job at the base (in which there has already been one scare I'm now taking tempertures in a bank..
Don't get me wrong I'm thankful to have the work (and it's good to be out of uniform and in the old white shirt and tie, which I look rather dapper in)....but I am bracing myself for the oncoming idiots who believe it's either all a conspiricy or think the word "mandatory" doesn't apply to them, as we've seen on the news so far. .....I"m a bit of a femmo at the best of times but even I don't understand how a woman used her "rights as a woman" in this whole debacle against a Bunnings manager.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

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hilarious...in the style of Banjo Patterson. and this is why.

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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by spot »

In years to com Bunnings will be remembered the world over.

I saw Mr McMillan some months ago bemoaning shortages on the shelves and I thought then that he had caught the tone of Australia's Poet perfectly.

I do hope people go back to mocking men a bit more, there's a spate of picking on entitled women with phone cameras lately.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by magentaflame »

Oh goodie!............Melbourne is now in a 'State of Disaster'. regional Victoria is back in stage three and masks are mandatory. I've been directed to get a test before I can go back to work because I've had possible contact. The stores are out of fresh food (how that works I don't get, considering we grow the food in Vic) and although I was wearing a mask voluntarily, the fact that it's now compulsory I'm feeling a bit pissy about it. I learnt this morning that it's spreading down this way again, which now makes me angry because we've done pretty much all you can do to not have another case.....but alas.
The 'radical' left just wants everyone to have food, shelter, healthcare, education and a living wage. Man that's radical!....ooooohhhh Scary!
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by LarsMac »

spot wrote: Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:56 am
LarsMac wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 3:22 pm Where we will be is damned near Nebraska. It was once a seabed, and that fact is rather obvious, looking at the terrain.

Bruce Dern made a film about it. He's an actor I've long admired. The scene in the bar might give a taste of the locale, I approve of bars like that.







I've browsed for a look at the scenery. I ought not hotlink really but it's not as bad as copying images, so here's some views...

Image

Image

Image

What do you do if you come across a fence in the countryside? Can you just jump it and carry on, or would you get shot. There's a fence in that last photo.

Outdoor temperatures vary between 118°F and -47°F, put a rug in your trunk.
That last pic is closer to what our neighborhood looks like, except we are on flatter country. That looks to be the Sand Hills, a couple hours north of us.
We are finally to finally settled in, a bit, and I should be able to get out and explore.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by spot »

That was a major undertaking, I'm sure you'll enjoy exploring your surroundings before the snows arrive.

What height above sea level is it?

Does the local hypermarket make deliveries?

Are there bears or neighbors within half a mile?

Is it too late to plant out herbs and vegetables and tether a goat?
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by spot »

Here we are, the article that had to be written. It's in The Atlantic, in a free COVID section, it's 8,500 words long and it will take you for ever to reed. It says what needs saying. It's the definitive State of the Union address for 2020.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... re/614191/
This article appears in the September 2020 print edition with the headline “Anatomy of an American Failure.”
Ed Yong is a staff writer at The Atlantic, where he covers science.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by spot »

If anyone's watching the Johns Hopkins statistics, two thirds of all registered deaths worldwide have been happening in five countries this month and there's no drift suggesting this will change soon. It's roughly a thousand a day in the US, Brazil and India, and roughly 500 a day in Mexico and Colombia with roughly six thousand deaths a day worldwide.

Is it the intention that America reduce its present static death rate before the election, and if so what steps will that involve? As an instance, Spain just ordered its brothels to close.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by spot »

I'm becoming moderately annoyed with this constant government mantra -
Yesterday teachers and their unions launched new attacks on Williamson after his department issued last-minute guidance to schools on how to cope with Covid-19 outbreaks, giving them just days to react, having asked for months for such guidance and been dismissed.

In an open letter to all parents, Williamson insists there is a firm consensus among medical experts and scientists that schools will be safe for pupils and staff.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... shock-poll
That may well be exactly as they say, but they invariably leave out the third strand. The one thing it cannot possibly be is "safe", as they put it, for parents. Perhaps Speaking As A Mother Leadsom would like to voice concern and finally validate her existence.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by cars »

And so it continues:
For the past week on the news here, each day it has been reported that various large numbers of kids and teachers that were the first ones to start school two weeks ago are now being quarantined due to testing positive for the virus!

Total is in the hundreds already.









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Cars :)
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by spot »

Are they quarantined for testing positive, or because others near them have tested positive?

I'd have hoped contacts were also immediately quarantined, at least until they've been confirmed negative after the incubation period.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by cars »

spot wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 7:16 am Are they quarantined for testing positive, or because others near them have tested positive?

I'd have hoped contacts were also immediately quarantined, at least until they've been confirmed negative after the incubation period.

Both, children and teachers in the schools tested positive, thus, all that were in contact with them have been quarantined, and rightly so.
Cars :)
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by Hope6 »

Well hello everyone. I hope all are still staying healthy. We've had an increase in cases here in the area but thankfully my son's school has decided to go all distance learning until at least the first 9 weeks.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by LarsMac »

Glad to hear that you are safe, Hope.
Our granddaughter and her child, and her SO all packed up from Virginia and came back to Colorado. They are now quarantined in the Mobile Home the Daughter bought and had moved to our farm. They even brought SO's mother along.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by Hope6 »

Hi Lars glad your doing well too. Did your daughter leave Virginia because of the virus?
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by LarsMac »

Hope6 wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:18 pm Hi Lars glad your doing well too. Did your daughter leave Virginia because of the virus?
The virus was part of it, with all of the people, and she could never adapt to the humidity in the East.

Getting away from so many people will help her Son, who is severely Autistic, too.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by LarsMac »

So, I came across the following article in FB, this AM.
Rather interesting read.
They may be drawing a bead on this thing, finally.

Still looks like we're in for a bumpy ride for a while, though.

A Supercomputer Analyzed Covid-19 — and an Interesting New Theory Has Emerged
"Earlier this summer, the Summit supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Lab in Tennessee set about crunching data on more than 40,000 genes from 17,000 genetic samples in an effort to better understand Covid-19. Summit is the second-fastest computer in the world, but the process — which involved analyzing 2.5 billion genetic combinations — still took more than a week."
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by spot »

I went through that a couple of times yesterday, there was a link to it on Medium. It's very persuasive and I'm pleased there's a team that's digging that deep, finally.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by Hope6 »

LarsMac wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:35 pm
Hope6 wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:18 pm Hi Lars glad your doing well too. Did your daughter leave Virginia because of the virus?
The virus was part of it, with all of the people, and she could never adapt to the humidity in the East.

Getting away from so many people will help her Son, who is severely Autistic, too.
Yes the humidity here is quite something. The entire month of July was over 90 degrees but the humidity made it feel like 100. Since this virus I have never been so glad in my life that I live out in the middle of the woods! :D
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by spot »

For anyone who's not been watching, China has reported 94 additional Covid-related deaths in the past 143 days, taking its cumulative total to 4,730. The total is symptomatic - well, fairly obviously... - and might only refer to domestic transmission and exclude people recently arrived from abroad.

The reason for this is testing, contact tracing and isolation. Why anyone would think it's impossible to achieve, or too expensive to implement, I have no idea.

If anyone would like to suggest China is lying about the total, I'd merely point out the extent that people are safely getting on with life, huge trade fairs are operating, the country is normal. Fox News, if I understand correctly, has speculated that 21 million people have died of Covid-19 in China this year based on cancelled extrapolated phone contracts with one phone company. Presumably the people who watch the channel want to believe it's true.

I would not be at all surprised if China-America trade hits a political embargo in the near future, though why America thinks that will be in their own national interest I've no idea. One can only watch and see what happens.


Image
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by spot »

spot wrote: Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:05 pm Looking at this week's UK case count I think we can see that the recent low is as low as we're going to get and the curve has turned. You can't say it's going back up, yet. The real question is whether it can be kept to a very slow rise with local flares dealt with promptly.

For anyone wondering how that turned out, this is the UK daily cases plot from Johns Hopkins this morning.

Image

And two months from now? The government will have its back to the wall and the daily case total will be past 5,000. And we'll all be staying up watching Donald Trump get himself re-elected. After which you can rename me Mystic Meg and I'll be running out of tea-leaves.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by Betty Boop »

None of the pubs are taking contact details. Hardly anyone is distancing on the pavements.

That graph looks worrying to me.

Track and trace is a joke and I forgot, we're to call it NHS track and trace. Boris said so.


Coffee grounds work well too but when they run out too I have some tarot cards here you may borrow.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by FourPart »

spot wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 12:08 am
spot wrote: Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:05 pm Looking at this week's UK case count I think we can see that the recent low is as low as we're going to get and the curve has turned. You can't say it's going back up, yet. The real question is whether it can be kept to a very slow rise with local flares dealt with promptly.

For anyone wondering how that turned out, this is the UK daily cases plot from Johns Hopkins this morning.

Image

And two months from now? The government will have its back to the wall and the daily case total will be past 5,000. And we'll all be staying up watching Donald Trump get himself re-elected. After which you can rename me Mystic Meg and I'll be running out of tea-leaves.
Of course one must be careful to differentiate between Cases & Recorded Cases. With so much more Testing happening now there's obviously going to be far more Recorded Cases.
The only real Consistent is the Death Rate, and that appears to be static or even still decreasing - although I expect to see the rate begin to inrcease again shortly.
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Re: Covid-19 is spiking . . . .

Post by spot »

FourPart wrote: Sun Sep 13, 2020 5:21 am Of course one must be careful to differentiate between Cases & Recorded Cases. With so much more Testing happening now there's obviously going to be far more Recorded Cases.
The only real Consistent is the Death Rate, and that appears to be static or even still decreasing - although I expect to see the rate begin to inrcease again shortly.
A case count estimate is made by the Office for National Statistics based on random testing of large populations. The result closely matches the ZOE-Imperial College mass reporting app real-time estimate for how many infectious people there are in Britain and their location.

Recorded cases is a fudge count left over from when no random sampling of large populations existed, early on in the pandemic. It was originally of symptomatic people testing positive since only symptomatic people were being tested. Now it includes some, but not all, asymptomatic infected people as well. It was, and is, lower than the ONS estimate (currently by about 50% I think, but I may be wrong).

There are three published sets of death counts. The government definition of a Covid-19 death is everyone dying within 28 days of a first positive test. Then there's the count of death certificates which include Covid/Coronavirus as text and running around 25% higher than the government figure. There's also the deaths above the five-year average, which is nearer 50% higher than the government figure. They are consistent in that they go up together very roughly in lock-step. Graphing any one of them shows the trend, but none of them are a only reality as far as "deaths from the pandemic" go.

The reason people look at the case graphs is that they have so far led the death graphs by about a month. Until now you needed to time-shift the deaths back a month to get the peaks and troughs to even roughly align, and you couldn't do that until a month has passed. If you wanted to see current trends, the cases showed where things were.

The death count, as a proportion of the case count, involves choosing one of the nine available perms. Whichever proportion you choose it's going down, because the age distribution of all three sets of case count data has shifted from wow look at all those pensioners to wow look at all those delinquent hooligans, back-to-workers, schoolkids and university students. The hooligans and bad working practices are making the case figures go up at the moment, some time in the future the parents of all those categories will get it passed to them and the three death counts will rise too. The gap for that will be even longer than the month delay we've been seeing so far.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
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