Ukraine and Russia

User avatar
LarsMac
Posts: 13701
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:11 pm
Location: on the open road
Contact:

Ukraine and Russia

Post by LarsMac »

Well, looks like the shit is about to start in Ukraine.
Word is that separatists in Ukraine have started shelling Ukraine troops, and Russia may use Ukraine's actions in response to step over the border.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... e60fac4fe1

and, of course Biden will have to step up and get us involved somehow.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 4b957c63f1

This can't end well.
The home of the soul is the Open Road.
- DH Lawrence
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

These Russian chaps do seem to have gone further than they might. Some of them seem quite pleased with themselves:
Margarita Simonyan, the newly-sanctioned head of RT, tweeted. “This is a standard parade rehearsal,” she wrote. “Except this year we have decided to hold the parade in Kyiv.”
Nobody here - in Poland - is allowed to enter Ukraine at the moment. Ryanair, on the other hand, invited me to buy a ticket to Kiev for £4.99 yesterday. Michael O'Leary is more interested in cashflow than in common sense. He was a dog, he remains a dog, no doubt he will continue to be a dog.

Presumably Americans in general see no parallel between today's events and Dubya's "Shock and Awe" performance in Baghdad a while ago.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

“Putin has just launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” said Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba. “Peaceful Ukrainian cities are under strikes. This is a war of aggression. Ukraine will defend itself and will win. The world can and must stop Putin. The time to act is now.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... n-invasion
"Faltering forces of infidels cannot just enter a country of 26 million people and lay besiege to them! They are the ones who will find themselves under siege. Therefore, in reality, whatever this miserable Rumsfeld has been saying, he was talking about his own forces. Now even the American command is under siege."

Baghdad Bob.

I'm not sure Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba is walking the wisest of paths there.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

We have a position today where either of the Presidents could have stopped the Russian attack on Ukraine with the stroke of a pen.

President Putin could have called it off and didn't.

President Biden could have guaranteed that Ukraine would be refused admission to NATO and he didn't.

The invasion provides the guarantee President Putin wanted. President Biden gets what he wanted too, a bogeyman to point at for the rest of his term and name an Enemy of America.

The people squashed in the centre, Ukrainians, didn't get much of a say in things. Neither did the Afghans or the Iraqis if it comes to that. The major powers call the shots.


The Ukraine government is asking for the gift of air supremacy from anyone who might be listening. As if.
Ukraine is calling on the European Union and its member states to urgently provide air-defence and anti-missile systems, as well as use “all means” to jam Russian satellite signals.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... iv-kharkiv
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
LarsMac
Posts: 13701
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:11 pm
Location: on the open road
Contact:

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by LarsMac »

Well, this has been an on and off discussion for a while.
Near as I can tell, the NATO thing is a straw dog.

LINK:Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Is Essentially Not About NATO
The home of the soul is the Open Road.
- DH Lawrence
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

LarsMac wrote: Thu Feb 24, 2022 12:04 pm Well, this has been an on and off discussion for a while.
Near as I can tell, the NATO thing is a straw dog.

LINK:Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Is Essentially Not About NATO
That's an interesting article. From where we are now it's hypothetical. It could have been easily tested - the Western guarantee could have been given and then we'd have had proof positive of whether the Russian offer to leave it at that was true or not.

As for the article's comparison of now with the late 90s and the beginning of the 2000's, Russia was sufficiently weaker back then that letting matters ride was their sole option. That seems not to be so any longer.

The West has demonstrated that if it can station heavyweight equipment right up to Russia's border then it will and it has. America certainly wouldn't stand for a comparable threat, I can't see why anyone should expect Russia to. Russia insisted after World War Two that it must have defense in depth, and that's what it got. Circumstances are no different now than they were then.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
LarsMac
Posts: 13701
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:11 pm
Location: on the open road
Contact:

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by LarsMac »

So, I am hoping that our pres does not decide to send troops to "Rescue" Ukraine from Russia.
The last thing we need is another Korea/Vietnam/Iraq/Afghanistan adventure.
At this point, I do not see the point in trying to extract Russia from Ukraine.
The logistics alone would be a nightmare.

And most interesting to me is, what the hell do the Russians want with Chernobyl?

Russian forces seize control of Chernobyl nuclear plant, Ukrainian official says
The home of the soul is the Open Road.
- DH Lawrence
User avatar
LarsMac
Posts: 13701
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:11 pm
Location: on the open road
Contact:

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by LarsMac »

LarsMac wrote: Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:32 pm So, I am hoping that our pres does not decide to send troops to "Rescue" Ukraine from Russia.
The last thing we need is another Korea/Vietnam/Iraq/Afghanistan adventure.
At this point, I do not see the point in trying to extract Russia from Ukraine.
The logistics alone would be a nightmare.

And most interesting to me is, what the hell do the Russians want with Chernobyl?

Russian forces seize control of Chernobyl nuclear plant, Ukrainian official says
So, apparently, the simple answer on the Chernobyl attack was that it was on the road to Kiev.

And it seems that Puitn is simply following the long line of Russians who have never accepted the idea that Ukraine has not always been a part of Russia. From the late 17th century, that seems to have been the case. And old Vlad couldn't stand the idea that they took a hike on his watch. (Yes, I know that he actually was just a budding politician when they split, but it was probably a big piece of his own identity that Ukraine was Russia, and he set out to fix that problem.)
The home of the soul is the Open Road.
- DH Lawrence
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

Providing a corridor into the Ukraine sounds by far the likeliest reason, yes, I agree. The BBC article carries hysterical notes though.
"Our defenders are giving their lives so that the tragedy of 1986 will not be repeated," President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote earlier on Twitter.

[...] Chernobyl's "exclusion zone" - a 32 km (19 mile) radius around the plant - remains largely devoid of life 36 years after a faulty reactor caused a major explosion at the plant.

[...] The White House says it has received reports that staff are being held hostage at the site by Russian soldiers.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60514228
There, for instance. I've not seen a credible word suggesting any shots were fired to take the exclusion zone or the nuclear plant; life around the plant has thrived ever since it was evacuated in 1986; the reactor wasn't "faulty"; and I'm quite sure the radioactive remediation work is being protected. What reason has anyone to think otherwise? The bad-mouthing parts of the story are just a waste of space.

Clearly the thread will benefit if I'm shown to be wrong as the story unfolds. Extra information will be welcome whenever as it becomes available. Are the staff "hostages", for instance? Has the radioactive security of the site been prejudiced?
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says he is "convinced" that Russian president Vladimir Putin will try to overthrow the Ukrainian government.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60517447
One can only hope Mr Blinken has been taken out of context - who on earth has suggested otherwise. What alternative might be intended.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
LarsMac
Posts: 13701
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:11 pm
Location: on the open road
Contact:

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by LarsMac »

I am fairly certain that Putin does, indeed, wish to "overthrow" the current Ukraine gummint.
He apparently believes, as a number of Russians do, that Ukraine is just a region of Mother Russia, and must be returned to the fold, to be protected from those evil influences of the outer world.
He's become quite paranoid in his later years.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/worl ... peech.html
The home of the soul is the Open Road.
- DH Lawrence
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

I'd not want to come to a conclusion on paranoia. Any national politician will legitimately think others are out to get him or her, it's what others do. Who would it not apply to?

I'm interested to know when and for how long Ukraine's foreign policy was independent of Russia before the Orange Revolution. When would you go back to for the last significant period? 1667? 1943?
Occupied by Russian troops since the 1654 Treaty of Pereyaslav, Kyiv became a part of the Tsardom of Russia from 1667 on the Truce of Andrusovo and enjoyed a degree of autonomy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv#History

So - which is the normal state of affairs? Which works and which doesn't? Which poses a threat to Russian interests? That's longer than Scotland has been part of the UK, it predates the founding of the US by a hundred years. It was a continuous union until 1991 and a cooperative relationship until ten years ago.

I'd pay more attention to sovereign rights of nation states if the US and its Coalition of the Willing - essentially the UK and Honduras at the last count - hadn't trampled on so many sovereign nations throughout my adult life. Far more than Russia ever did. Maybe we could draw up a comparative list to be helpful.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
LarsMac
Posts: 13701
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:11 pm
Location: on the open road
Contact:

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by LarsMac »

spot wrote: Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:58 am I'd not want to come to a conclusion on paranoia. Any national politician will legitimately think others are out to get him or her, it's what others do. Who would it not apply to?

I'm interested to know when and for how long Ukraine's foreign policy was independent of Russia before the Orange Revolution. When would you go back to for the last significant period? 1667? 1943?
Occupied by Russian troops since the 1654 Treaty of Pereyaslav, Kyiv became a part of the Tsardom of Russia from 1667 on the Truce of Andrusovo and enjoyed a degree of autonomy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv#History

So - which is the normal state of affairs? Which works and which doesn't? Which poses a threat to Russian interests? That's longer than Scotland has been part of the UK, it predates the founding of the US by a hundred years. It was a continuous union until 1991 and a cooperative relationship until ten years ago.

I'd pay more attention to sovereign rights of nation states if the US and its Coalition of the Willing - essentially the UK and Honduras at the last count - hadn't trampled on so many sovereign nations throughout my adult life. Far more than Russia ever did. Maybe we could draw up a comparative list to be helpful.
I am well, and painfully aware of the sins of the Good Ol' US of A in the colonialism of the Americas.
I guess that in the wise view, any nation who cannot adequately defend their borders probably doesn't deserve them. I dunno. Eat or be eaten, right?
Or, perhaps, "If your friends can't keep you safe, you have the wrong friends." ? International Politics pretty much sucks for the little guys.
But, alas, Putin is just another Asshat.
But nothing the US, or UK have done justifies the Russians invading Ukraine.
What amazes me now is the reaction in the US from the Rethuglicans, that the Ukraine is the property of Russia, and deserved to be invaded.
What's next?
The home of the soul is the Open Road.
- DH Lawrence
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

I'm now back at my normal desk, unpacking from the travel. I'm surprised the Russian attack hasn't involved air or missile attacks on populated areas. That shows restraint at high levels, don't you think? Once the land forces reach cities it gets a lot more lethal for civilians and that's beginning now at Kharkiv. I'm sure that used to be Kharkov when I was growing up.

Starting this war wasn't a sensible move at all on the part of the Kremlin, it will harden resentment and opposition in Russia as well as in surrounding countries.

The person missing from all the discussion is Julia Timoschenko, she should have been President of Ukraine by now and a great deal more influential internationally than the current chap. I'm sure he's doing his best but doesn't seem much from here.


Chelsea FC has described the situation in Ukraine as "horrific and devastating".

In a short statement the club said: "Chelsea FC’s thoughts are with everyone in Ukraine. Everyone at the club is praying for peace."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877
That has no place in any newspaper of record, that is just trivial inanity. "Everyone at the club is praying for peace" is plainly untrue, could not possibly under any circumstance be true and even if it were true I would be unimpressed, uninterested and annoyed at being told.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

And this morning, UK Foriegn Secretary Liz Truss said if British people chose individually to head to Ukraine to join the fight, she would support them "absolutely if that is what they want to do".

Previously the UK has prosecuted people who travelled to the Middle East to fight for or against IS.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877
That is an astoundingly inept decision and announcement by the Foreign Office then. There were prosecutions over people going to fight in Libya too, and Bosnia, if I remember right. There's been long-standing ban since the end of the Spanish Civil War and it's not for the light-weight political shoulders of some ex-opinion-writer like Liz Truss to expose her tory bias and overturn it.


And then we have
Republican governor of New Hampshire, Chris Sununu, announcing on Saturday the removal of “Russian-made and Russian-branded spirits from our liquor and wine outlets until further notice”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... now-so-far
The US used to rely on Strategic Air Command, now it gets by with drink choice? What sort of world is that.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
LarsMac
Posts: 13701
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:11 pm
Location: on the open road
Contact:

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by LarsMac »

Thee is now and official ban in Colorado on selling Russian Vodkas.
That'll show them Russkies.

Though the latest here is that Ol' Vlad has put all his missile sites on "High Alert"
BOOM!
I guess he's hoping we will all shut up, now and let him have his way.

The guy has lost his marbles, I fear.
The home of the soul is the Open Road.
- DH Lawrence
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

He's certainly made a shocking misjudgement.

The Russians found, when they went into Afghanistan, that other countries paid insurgents to fight a proxy war which they lost. The Americans and British found exactly the same thing when they very stupidly did the same thing in turn. The Russians are now about to find out a second time - cash and weaponry is going to pour into a Ukraine insurgency for as long as it takes, and the remaining inhabitants are going to be even more anti-Russian by the end of it than they are at the moment.

It's one thing to subvert, it's quite another to occupy.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
LarsMac
Posts: 13701
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:11 pm
Location: on the open road
Contact:

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by LarsMac »

I just hope that he has not completely lost his mind and that he is not actually willing to take everybody out with him. And if he is, I gotta hope that saner minds are willing to step in and cut him out.
The home of the soul is the Open Road.
- DH Lawrence
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

There's an inherent pervasive European racism in the immediate expedited border crossing of Ukrainian refugees compared with those from, for example, Afghanistan or Libya or Iraq or Syria. All are war-displaced but the white ones aren't fenced out. Seeing people as people doesn't appear to be an option.

As for handing politicians a country's nuclear codes, after Dubya and the Neocons and swathes of fundamentalist end-time Christians I really don't think anyone could be less trustworthy.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
LarsMac
Posts: 13701
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:11 pm
Location: on the open road
Contact:

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by LarsMac »

spot wrote: Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:51 am There's an inherent pervasive European racism in the immediate expedited border crossing of Ukrainian refugees compared with those from, for example, Afghanistan or Libya or Iraq or Syria. All are war-displaced but the white ones aren't fenced out. Seeing people as people doesn't appear to be an option.

As for handing politicians a country's nuclear codes, after Dubya and the Neocons and swathes of fundamentalist end-time Christians I really don't think anyone could be less trustworthy.
Racism is and will continue to be one of the - if not the - worst part of humanity for a very long time. I'm not sure that it wouldn't be justification for that Apocalyptical slap up side the head we may get courtesy of Brother Vlad over all this.

However, personally, I'd just as soon we miss that event, and have a few more millennia to to try and solve that problem.

As for Launch Codes, I am relatively confident that the US has a strong hand on the key to the case in which they are stored. I wish I felt the same about our Russkie friends.

I've not yet checked the news this morning, but Hopefully, that particular line of thought has become obsolete for the now.
The home of the soul is the Open Road.
- DH Lawrence
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

Watching a newsclip it was blatantly clear that Russia is using cluster bombs. The people responsible should definitely be prosecuted whenever the opportunity arises.

Vladimir Putin has reportedly used illegal cluster bombs to shell civilian areas in eastern Ukraine, it was claimed tonight. The city of Kharkiv has experienced some of the heaviest bombing - with increasing shelling earlier today and reported use of 'cluster munitions'.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk ... s-23211150
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
G#Gill
Posts: 14763
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 1:09 pm

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by G#Gill »

One just cannot believe anything that Pootin says. I've never trusted Russia. It seems that many Russian people are also of similar mind! It is interesting to see many Russian nationals hurrying to get out of the country of their birth, I suppose they have realised at last that their so-called leader and his cohorts are lying bullies and not to be trusted. I wonder if this action by the Russian civilians could possibly persuade Pootin that he is doing the wrong thing. That Pootin, using the excuse that he is trying to cleanse Ukraine of neo-nazis, is just a war-mongering evil bully straight out of the Hitler mould !

I worry that this whole thing will degrade into a nuclear situation. If this happens, it is bound to destroy our world. That Russian bully is MAD.
I'm a Saga-lout, growing old disgracefully
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

I'm not a psychiatrist Gill, I'm not qualified to assess what you claim. I note you made the same statement about most of the other national leaders which American Presidents disparage. I'm not sure how to distinguish your medical diagnosis from partisan bias.

And why do people on this site deliberately mis-spell names to convey disrespect? It keeps happening year after year. Jester always claimed he didn't do it intentionally, something I never believed for a moment.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
LarsMac
Posts: 13701
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:11 pm
Location: on the open road
Contact:

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by LarsMac »

Was listening to the radio while driving home today.
It seems that Russia is claiming that nearly 95 % of votes cast in the several regions to leave Ukraine and align with Russia.
The reporter was saying that many people claim that they were forced to vote at gunpoint by Russian soldiers.

Putin is, of course claiming victory, and rattling his radioactive Sabers.
The home of the soul is the Open Road.
- DH Lawrence
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

There are a number of countries where the idea of fair unbiased supervised elections is laughable. I'd put Russia at the top of the list, I don't believe the country has supervised an honest election in its entire history, either at home or abroad.

I still think the blame for the war in Ukraine lies predominantly with NATO, mind. When President Putin describes the developing Western threat to Russia's Constitution as existential, I think that's a fair assessment. I don't believe NATO's winner-take-all constant maximum pressure has been in anyone's interest, least of all that of Western safety.

It is a sad case, that often there is no being a good patriot without being an enemy to other men. The elder Cato, that worthy patriot, in giving his vote in the senate, used always to say, Such is my opinion; and down with Carthage. A great part of patriotism is thought to consist in wishing one's native country a flourishing trade and distinguished successes in war.

Now it is manifest, that for one country to gain, another must lose, and its successes in war must of course spread calamity in other parts. Such, then, is the state of human affairs, that to wish an increase of grandeur to one's native country is wishing harm to its neighbors.

Voltaire, Dictionary of Philosophy.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
LarsMac
Posts: 13701
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:11 pm
Location: on the open road
Contact:

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by LarsMac »

I seem to remember back in the early 200x years, Putin and his gumment were meddling in the affairs of Ukraine, which led to Ukraine seeking closer ties with the EU. And then, of course there was the Crimean annexation in 2014.

I don't see any way that Russia is the victim, here.
The home of the soul is the Open Road.
- DH Lawrence
User avatar
LarsMac
Posts: 13701
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:11 pm
Location: on the open road
Contact:

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by LarsMac »

I am beginning to think that as completely screwed up as the world seems today that NATO should go "all in" with support for Ukraine, and call Vlad's Bluff on his threats to unleash the Dogs. We could use a Nuclear "CTL-ALT-DEL" and whoever is left can start over with the idea of Civilization.
If he folds, then we take all the land south of the Don and give that to Ukraine for their troubles, Send Putin over to be roommates with Little Brother Kim in Pyongyang. (And just for shits and giggles, we can send Donald over to hang out with them. the new Three Stooges)
The home of the soul is the Open Road.
- DH Lawrence
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

LarsMac wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:59 pmI don't see any way that Russia is the victim, here.
I apologize, I was in London over the weekend and I didn't get to respond to this.

The uncontroversial history we can assume as far as FDR, Churchill and Stalin and the end of the war is that Kiev and Novgorod were both founded by Vikings making a trade route from Scandinavia to Constantinople, where the Vikings famously constituted the Emperor's personal Varangian bodyguard. The Russians regard both foundations as the beginning of Russia, quite reasonably. The problem is that some in Russia regard any political divorce between the two centers as treasonable. All of Russia's folk history is based on that story.

Then we have Yalta, where all three victors accepted a Soviet sphere of influence. Russia demanded a strategic buffer zone between its own border and any future hostile state, and Britain and the US signed up to it. Reneging on Yalta is arguably a guaranteed step onto a road to war.

Russia can point to what happens to each brick removed from the buffer zone. As Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia signed up with NATO, forward supply depots for quick deployment of NATO divisions were established directly against Russia's homeland border. You only need ask yourself how the US would react if any other country or organization did the same thing along the US border - it would not be tolerated. Nobody would think it would be tolerated. There are advance missile sites, advance air bases. Cuba was a precedent on US thinking in that regard.

And now Russia is faced with NATO deployment along its Black Sea underbelly as well. Russia breaking Ukraine's border away from that sea access is Russia's idea of a restrained compromise, I reckon.

Let me speculate. I'm sure Russia would prefer the risk of starting a limited war with NATO than to have NATO's military deployment permanently established against its southern border, so we may well find a tactical nuclear response if the current line gets pressed further east. And if NATO does engage directly with Russian forces, the battlefield will encompass Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia as a matter of course, by which point I don't imagine the fight will remain an unpopular war within Russia itself.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
LarsMac
Posts: 13701
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:11 pm
Location: on the open road
Contact:

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by LarsMac »

Interesting as all that is, going back to even Yalta is probably too far.
Ukraine fought for, and won independence several times through history, and for at least since 1917, they had been a less than willing participant in the Soviet Union, which ceased to exist in the '90s.
Ukraine left before Russia did, and has been an independent nation since. We are back to Russia's maneuvering since the turn of the century to wrestle various parcels of Ukraine soil from them. I suspect that may have a bit to do with Ukraine's recent consideration to join the EU and NATO.

Again, Putin, is making Russia the bad guys, here.
And it's time that we (The somewhat Civilized World) put a stop to his bullshit.
The home of the soul is the Open Road.
- DH Lawrence
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

LarsMac wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:17 pmAnd it's time that we (The somewhat Civilized World) put a stop to his bullshit.
Oh, I say. Given what the Somewhat Civilized World's Military has done over the last forty years I think you could cut Russia an awful lot of slack before you think it's come close to bad-boy status. On any assessment basis you care to name. Try it and see. Here's a sort-of supportive notion as far as Somewhat Civilized is concerned:
The clean hands doctrine is based on the maxim of equity which states that one “who comes into equity must come with clean hands.” This doctrine requires the court to deny equitable relief to a party who has violated good faith with respect to the subject of the claim.
You may even put your Somewhat Civilized General Mattis one one side of the balance and President Putin on the other and decide which one is viler if you like. I have no doubt in my mind which one outweighs the other. Do please invite me to quote both men in context.

A non-aligned Ukraine would worry nobody at all. A non-aligned Ukraine which by treaty refused to allow every other country access to its territory. That's not what membership of NATO means though.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
Betty Boop
Posts: 16934
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2005 1:17 pm
Location: The end of the World

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by Betty Boop »

LarsMac wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:17 pm And it's time that we (The somewhat Civilized World) put a stop to his bullshit.
I've never understood that type of statement...

Who exactly are the 'civilised' ?? How does one qualify to be 'civilised' ?? And, who the hell decides ??
User avatar
Bryn Mawr
Posts: 16113
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2006 4:54 pm

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by Bryn Mawr »

If Russia didn’t want it’s ex allies to run to NATO for protection then maybe they should have treated them better whilst the Warsaw Pact existed.

The invasions of Hungry and Czechoslovakia are a case in point.
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

Bryn Mawr wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:20 am If Russia didn’t want it’s ex allies to run to NATO for protection then maybe they should have treated them better whilst the Warsaw Pact existed.

The invasions of Hungry and Czechoslovakia are a case in point.
The past is a foreign country.

Now I'm worried I might not remember where that's from. It ought to be The Duchess of Malfi but I have an odd niggle about The Go-Between. Perhaps it's from both.

I would suggest the mistake was in 1989, walking away from East Germany and allowing the wall to come down. I'd not be the only one criticizing President Gorbachev for letting go of the reins, I'm quite sure everyone was a lot safer before that happened. The onset of capital-led corruption across the one-time Eastern Bloc was a disaster for the entire world.

The trouble with the current position is that NATO won't allow Russia to join. I've no doubt that would provide an answer, they just have to be asked nicely. If bloody Turkey could scrape in after its blinkered refusal to recognize its genocidal past I can't imagine what would stop Russia from qualifying.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
Bryn Mawr
Posts: 16113
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2006 4:54 pm

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by Bryn Mawr »

spot wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:54 am
Bryn Mawr wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:20 am If Russia didn’t want it’s ex allies to run to NATO for protection then maybe they should have treated them better whilst the Warsaw Pact existed.

The invasions of Hungry and Czechoslovakia are a case in point.
The past is a foreign country.

Now I'm worried I might not remember where that's from. It ought to be The Duchess of Malfi but I have an odd niggle about The Go-Between. Perhaps it's from both.

I would suggest the mistake was in 1989, walking away from East Germany and allowing the wall to come down. I'd not be the only one criticizing President Gorbachev for letting go of the reins, I'm quite sure everyone was a lot safer before that happened. The onset of capital-led corruption across the one-time Eastern Bloc was a disaster for the entire world.

The trouble with the current position is that NATO won't allow Russia to join. I've no doubt that would provide an answer, they just have to be asked nicely. If bloody Turkey could scrape in after its blinkered refusal to recognize its genocidal past I can't imagine what would stop Russia from qualifying.
You’re the one that brought up past history :-)

I’m sure that you’re right - if Russia had been invited into NATO around, maybe, 2000 the world would be a more stable place. Now is probably too late.
User avatar
LarsMac
Posts: 13701
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:11 pm
Location: on the open road
Contact:

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by LarsMac »

Betty Boop wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 3:16 pm
LarsMac wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:17 pm And it's time that we (The somewhat Civilized World) put a stop to his bullshit.
I've never understood that type of statement...

Who exactly are the 'civilised' ?? How does one qualify to be 'civilised' ?? And, who the hell decides ??
A very good question.
I often wonder that, myself.
I do like to think that the EU members, The United Kingdom, and the US still meet the basic requirements, though lately that's seems less sure that hear in the US.
There are a number of non-aligned nations that I believe qualify.
The home of the soul is the Open Road.
- DH Lawrence
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

As usual - agree on your vocabulary...
At an advanced stage of social and cultural development, usually marked by the existence of organized communities and an adherence to established conventions of behaviour; highly developed; refined and sophisticated in manner or taste; educated, cultured.

OED

I'll offer a view on the distribution of civilized society across the globe. I suggest there is a strong correlation between civilized values and timezone, the lower the timezone the more civilized the society.

Obviously there will be a list of exceptions, and clearly people will disagree on which nations should be listed.

Here's my exception list, countries with a lower than expected degree of civilized society for the timezone they occupy:

New Zealand and Australia, both of which have been under foreign colonial occupation for the last two centuries.

Korea, divided under foreign occupation for the last seventy years.

Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, the Philippines, Burma, the ex-Soviet -stans, Georgia, Iraq and the Seychelles, all with rampantly corrupt and repressive leaderships derived from foreign occupation.

https://geology.com/world/world-map.shtml is a helpful map - start at the right and work leftward.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
Betty Boop
Posts: 16934
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2005 1:17 pm
Location: The end of the World

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by Betty Boop »

LarsMac wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:30 pm
Betty Boop wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 3:16 pm
LarsMac wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:17 pm And it's time that we (The somewhat Civilized World) put a stop to his bullshit.
I've never understood that type of statement...

Who exactly are the 'civilised' ?? How does one qualify to be 'civilised' ?? And, who the hell decides ??
A very good question.
I often wonder that, myself.
I do like to think that the EU members, The United Kingdom, and the US still meet the basic requirements, though lately that's seems less sure that hear in the US.
There are a number of non-aligned nations that I believe qualify.
I've taken a while thinking about this, I can't agree with any of your suggestions and for now, I can't make any other suggestions either.
User avatar
LarsMac
Posts: 13701
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:11 pm
Location: on the open road
Contact:

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by LarsMac »

I don't quite get what you are saying relevant to time zones.
As for more civilized, I think that some of the most civilized countries are in the Caribbean regions.
The home of the soul is the Open Road.
- DH Lawrence
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

LarsMac wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 3:12 pm I don't quite get what you are saying relevant to time zones.
As for more civilized, I think that some of the most civilized countries are in the Caribbean regions.
Order the timezones from GMT-12 to GMT+12, low to high. Replace each line with the countries in that timezone. That now lists the countries from most civilized to least civilized, with the exceptions noted. I'm quite prepared to support that suggestion for any counter-example you care to name, and I'll even explain how it got that way.

I even have a possible explanation if I try for a moment. Homo Sapiens populated the planet out of Africa from West to East. As each group abandoned hunter-gathering and started civilizations and developed wealth, the resulting wars reversed the original migration routes and everyone invaded from East to West right around the planet. The ones who stayed put and developed socially civilized populations tend consequently to be today's more socially civilized societies.

The further West you go the more layers of oppression you can see piled up like flotsam after a storm, until you finally get to North and South America which are wall-to-wall conquered trying to survive under the colonial looters who enslaved them. Do please name me any country in North or South America where that isn't true.

As for your observation about the Caribbean, yes with provisos. Jamaica appears to be extremely violent, especially on the part of the police. The Caymans are spectacularly and visibly corrupt. The Bahamas are probably just as corrupt but hide that with an ostentatious display of wealth. Other than that yes, some of the most civilized countries are in the Caribbean regions. Nowhere else on earth has a slave underclass thrown off its shackles so effectively and taken control of its own society.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
LarsMac
Posts: 13701
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:11 pm
Location: on the open road
Contact:

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by LarsMac »

I've been pondering your last post for much of the day.
It occurs to me that you may be on to something.
It may well be that civilization, itself, might be the problem, all along.
The home of the soul is the Open Road.
- DH Lawrence
User avatar
Betty Boop
Posts: 16934
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2005 1:17 pm
Location: The end of the World

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by Betty Boop »

LarsMac wrote: Fri Oct 07, 2022 7:32 pm I've been pondering your last post for much of the day.
It occurs to me that you may be on to something.
It may well be that civilization, itself, might be the problem, all along.
Wherever you go, whatever you do power corrupts.
Someone in every setting has to have the upper hand, the final say.
Other people getting involved makes it all explode further.

Those thoughts above are in response to being involved within a committee, I was elected by a majority to be an overseer of a place because I stood for joint decisions and no one person having power at any time. All jobs to be shared amongst a committee, with no one person having to take on a lot of responsibility. But someone within that committee wanted the power, she was outraged that a majority wanted a committee setting, she thought the place should be run by her and her on/off/on/off soul mate partner.
It didn't help that outside people waded in to get involved when that person ran amok through the committee, spreading hatred like a person possessed. It wasn't spoken directly to me, lets call it trickle down hatred, but to everyone around me. The committee of 12 just evaporated, and how can you blame them, they didn't join up to fight a war. Then you end up in a situation of she/he said, you said until you reach a point of no one knows where and how the fight started or who started it, as everyone is under suspicion. I walked away.

I still stand for no one person having power over another. But I don't think groups of people can work, even like-minded at the start out end up with someone infiltrating and in a sneaky way they then reach for the power. Since the committee fiasco I have been in two slightly less formal settings where I have witnessed twice 'its them or me setting'. The second time the 'them' was me, and that again was because I was standing up for no one person to be control. I withdrew, then left.

The smaller social setting becomes a microcosm of the world at large doesn't it.

If smaller segments of society can't work together when all that is at stake is a 'personal' need for power, how can the bigger segments?

Maybe there's a way to work in the future as mediators, but we can't be countries that provide arms/money and spread propaganda whilst setting up our own bases in other countries. We can't get involved on that level any more.

I still don't know what the answer is, I've taken no interest in politics and the world at large until my later years and I still have huge holes in my knowledge.
User avatar
LarsMac
Posts: 13701
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:11 pm
Location: on the open road
Contact:

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by LarsMac »

I've seen similar activities, a couple of times.
IT seems that almost all people want someone to be in charge.
One person to take charge, one person to make the final decisions, and, of course, one person on whom to hang the blame once everything goes awry.
The home of the soul is the Open Road.
- DH Lawrence
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

The explosion in Poland destroyed a tractor in the village of Przewodów, about 3 miles (5km) from the border, on a day when the western Ukrainian city of Lviv was hit.

Mateusz Morawiecki, Poland’s prime minister, urgently convened the country’s council of ministers for national security and defence, the government spokesperson, Piotr Müller, said – without immediately specifying the reason for the emergency meeting.

After the meeting a Polish government spokesman said they were examining whether they needed to call an emergency Nato meeting, and were placing military units on heightened readiness.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... nd-ukraine

It's a bit tricky to know whose missile just blew up a tractor in Poland. It's clearly a missile, there's two people dead, it's not going to be brushed under a carpet.

Assuming it's a missile both sides have been using - a "S-300" has been mentioned and both sides apparently use them - I don't think even a fortuitous serial number would help since Ukraine has captured abandoned Russian armaments.

What's certain is that a lot of reporting is going to come down on one side or the other with no evidence whatever. Either side would benefit if the other were declared responsible.

And if there were several missiles hitting Polish territory, it's definitely not a deflected or stray accident.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

Here we are - from Poland’s president Andrzej Duda...
From the information that we and our allies have, it was an S-300 rocket made in the Soviet Union, an old rocket and there is no evidence that it was launched by the Russian side. It is highly probable that it was fired by Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... -in-poland
... which is not what the Ukrainian authorities or a large proportion of Internet posters were saying yesterday.

To quote the BBC’s diplomatic correspondent Paul Adams from the same source,
Questions will be raised about Kyiv’s early denial that one of its air defence missiles was involved.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, last night tweeted that any suggestion a Ukrainian missile had landed in Poland was a Russian “conspiracy theory”.

In light of subsequent comments from Joe Biden, his Polish counterpart, Duda, Stoltenberg, the Danish defence minister and others, Kuleba’s tweet seems hasty.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

So. Ukraine has held its ground for a year. I don't see the Ukrainian position improving as we go into the future.

NATO started life with twelve member states, none of which bordered Russia. Russia had buffer states, designed and agreed at Yalta between the governments of Russia, America and Britain. The whole point of those buffer states was to defuse the post-war strategic environment. Those buffer states led to peaceful militarized co-existence between Russia and the West after 1945.

When Russia withdrew from the buffer states thirty years ago, NATO began an eastward expansion. "In 1996, Clinton called for former Warsaw Pact countries and post-Soviet republics to join NATO, and made NATO enlargement a part of his foreign policy" while President Yeltsin warned that such a move was unacceptable. "Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic officially joined NATO in March 1999". Five years later - 2004 - the next tranche consisting of Albania, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia joined. Since then the remaining remnants of Yugoslavia have been absorbed.

Seen from a Russian perspective, this isn't at all a defensive alliance. What Russia sees is the creation of immense quick-deployment forward arms dumps pressing closer and closer to Russian territory. Every one of those accessions has led to the deployment of Western forward positions for NATO weaponry. It has nothing to do with establishing Western defence in depth, it has been a strategy aimed at removing Russia's pre-existing defence in depth. It is not a stabilizing strategy in the slightest.

Practically all of Ukraine territory would be a further eastward extension of those NATO forces. I have no idea why either the Ukraine government or even NATO itself didn't simply announce ten years ago that Ukrainian accession would be destabilizing and consequently not acceptable to either side. That, I think, would have been sufficient for Ukraine to have applied eventually for European Union membership without forcing Russian military intervention, though I do think the eastern border would have had to be redrawn to segregate the 17% Russian-ethnic eastern territory. The path of the last ten years has been downhill and inevitable once that option wasn't taken.

What we have instead is a Ukraine that has been funneled into a poor bargain. In exchange for limitless supplies of uninvoiced ammunition and weaponry from Western governments, Ukraine's territory is now a battleground where Ukrainian conscripts are dying in large and continuing numbers. Of the third of a million, mainly conscripts, serving in the last twelve months, around a quarter have been lost either dead or wounded. That might be seen as sustainable but it is scarcely in Ukraine's best interest. It's the same poor bargain Afghanistan faced in the 80s, and look where that led everyone. Afghanistan hasn't emerged from the American-fuelled civil war against the established Russian occupation in a more desirable condition.

What possible exit strategy does anyone think Ukraine has, at this stage?
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

The first war year is over, the second is about to kick off.

Perhaps someone might know the answer to a puzzling question. What could constitute a win for Ukraine?

Unless Ukraine is given full membership of NATO, right down to hosting a permanent Western armed presence, any conclusion to this war is just going to be the beginning of the next as far as Russia is concerned.

So, question part 1, will NATO grant Ukraine full membership while the war is in progress? I don't see that being likely. Does anyone?

Question part 2, would Russia agree to end the war while the future possibility of full Ukrainian membership of NATO exists? Why would Russia ever do that?

Question part 3, how does anyone think that Russia can provide a binding guarantee never to kick off the next round of conflict, if a mutual end to hostilities happens to the present war. Would the Ukrainians believe it? Would the West? Would anyone in Russia, even? There can't be a credible binding guarantee on Russia's part.

There is no possible advance of Ukrainian territorial gains that can make any difference to the end result of this war. Even if God's holy angels ride to the rescue and Ukraine regains every inch of the 1990s borders, even if it goes all the way to retaking the whole of Crimea by force, that's not going to stop Russia from doing all this again. As for invading pre-1990s Russia itself, Ukraine's forces would have to reach the Bering Straits before they could declare victory and that's infeasible. Armies frequently burn Moscow to the ground only to die trying to return home.

I suggest there is only one possible generational end to what's happening. Either the current Russian government falls or the current Ukrainian government falls. In either event, the successor government can then disavow the previous regime as traitorous, pledge a thousand years' future comity between the two fraternal nations, and then hang on to power permanently by undemocratic means because they definitely won't ever win a popular mandate.

Perhaps someone can offer an alternative. One may rant as as much bile as one wants, but a satisfactory conclusion is still necessary. At the moment, Ukraine is continually feeding its conscripts into harm's way. The West will continue to feed weaponry and superpower intelligence into the conflict zone until hell freezes over, like when just that happened in the Iran-Iraq war, for example - it's not as though this NATO strategy is unprecedented. Arming the Libyan opposition? Arming the Syrian opposition? Arming anyone at all who will fight, so long as they weaken a perceived enemy?

Nobody but Ukraine has an interest in bringing this war to an end, and I don't think the Ukrainian government has any way to do that.

And, just to be clear, there is no way on earth that Ukraine is capable of retaking the whole of Crimea by force. The entire Russian army could go home first and it would still involve a total bloodbath if it were attempted.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
LarsMac
Posts: 13701
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:11 pm
Location: on the open road
Contact:

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by LarsMac »

The only possible end to the war is for Russia to cease hostilities.
Whether Ukraine can regain the territories that Russia has claimed, or not, is another story.
That probably requires Russian government to dispose of the current leadership, I don't see that happening peacefully.
I don't see NATO taking on Ukraine in the near future. That will cause Putin to go off the deep end, and it could really get ugly, then.
Were I in Putin's shoes, I would declare victory, pull all the troops out of Ukraine territory, and move on.
The UN and NATO should never have allowed Putin to take Crimea, to start with. But that is really old news. As hard as it is, we should long ago called his bluff on the nuclear option.
With China and India talking of backing his play, it is going to be really hard to get a leash on the SOB, now.
The home of the soul is the Open Road.
- DH Lawrence
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

LarsMac wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 3:43 pm With China and India talking of backing his play, it is going to be really hard to get a leash on the SOB, now.
I'll offer a possible justification for China and India backing Russia as opposed to backing the western alliance (I'm inventing that phrase to cover the countries that go along with US foreign policy, which most often involves the UK, NATO, any or all of the EU, or any right-wing junta in South America looking for back-handers).

Countries like China and India have seen this western alliance destabilize Afghanistan while promising the end result will be democracy, enlightenment, financial stability, women's' rights, human rights and possibly ice cream too. And they saw how completely corrupt the vulture western contractors were in stealing development funds, and they saw how much worse Afghanistan ended up as a result of western intervention. And Iraq, and Libya, and Syria, and back through living memory as far as you'd like to take it.

So, given the choice of backing the western alliance in any venture ever again, or refusing to participate, which do you think is the actual moral position these countries should actually adopt? Or have I mis-stated the position anywhere?

“The U.S. says it wants peace, but it is waging wars around the world and inciting confrontation,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters in Beijing.

“While emphasizing the need to respect and maintain the international order, the U.S. has vigorously pursued illegal unilateral sanctions, putting domestic law above international law,” she said. “What the U.S. should do is to reflect on itself, stop confusing the public and making irresponsible remarks, earnestly shoulder its responsibilities, and do something to promote the de-escalation of the situation and peace talks.”

https://apnews.com/article/g20-india-us ... 7fc2d945d0
I'd applaud Mao Ning any day of the week. Why every US administration keeps pressing down this self-imposed pathway to obscure irrelevance I have no idea.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
User avatar
LarsMac
Posts: 13701
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:11 pm
Location: on the open road
Contact:

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by LarsMac »

" destabilize Afghanistan" ?
Afghanistan hasn't been stable since the 70s
Maybe even as far back as the 19th Century.
True, the US would have been much smarter to stay the hell out of the place back at the beginning of the Century, but, Ol' Biff thought he could do what no one has ever done, before.
The home of the soul is the Open Road.
- DH Lawrence
User avatar
spot
Posts: 41336
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:19 pm
Location: Brigstowe

Re: Ukraine and Russia

Post by spot »

LarsMac wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 10:40 am " destabilize Afghanistan" ?
Afghanistan hasn't been stable since the 70s
Maybe even as far back as the 19th Century.
True, the US would have been much smarter to stay the hell out of the place back at the beginning of the Century, but, Ol' Biff thought he could do what no one has ever done, before.
That's a fair summary.
He was considered a relatively lenient leader compared to previous kings; Zahir Shah had never signed a warrant for the execution of anyone for political reasons during his reign. He also used his power several times to commute capital punishment sentences given to some convicted criminals. At Zahir Shah's behest a new constitution was introduced in 1964 which made Afghanistan a modern democratic state by introducing free elections, a parliament, civil and political rights, women's rights, and universal suffrage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammad_ ... fghanistan
Then it wobbled in the mid-70s, went a bit Marxist, the Russians went in to prop up the government and boom, Reagan flooded the country with Stinger missiles by arming madrassa students. Some of whom were called Osama bin Laden, you might recall. And that's when and why Afghanistan collapsed and a lot of Americans got very rich trading heroin.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
Post Reply

Return to “Current Events”