Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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spot
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Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

Post by spot »

LarsMac;1532520 wrote: I am not offering any opinions on any of these pieces. Just sharing.


The intelligence community has made a statement today, which is considered unusual.

This is from Politico

“The IC will continue to rigorously examine emerging information and intelligence to determine whether the outbreak began through contact with infected animals or if it was the result of an accident at a laboratory in Wuhan.”

Current and former national security officials said they were surprised by the release, and suggested it could be a sign that the intelligence community feels it is being pulled into a political battle. The administration has been pressuring analysts, particularly at the CIA, to search for evidence that the virus came from a lab and that the World Health Organization helped China cover it up, according to a person briefed on the discussions.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/3 ... ory-226269




I have only two questions I'm hoping to see answered, with evidence.

Was the lab funded for for coronavirus research by any American source and if so, was it Federal funding?

Did that research involve changing the virus at any stage, as opposed to merely investigating it?

Because those are the allegations detailed in the Asia Times report yesterday. One side or the other will end up using the evidence as a coercive tool, I'd much rather it was produced in open court.
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Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

Post by Snooz »

spot;1532533 wrote: I believe he wants to substitute American Homeland producers for those in China.

Either wages offered by these American Homeland producers will become equivalent to those in China (assuming they can achieve that level of productivity), or your price may vary.

Tooling up might take several years too, but it will Make America Great Again.

To understand American patriotism you have to become an American patriot. Believing American patriots to be more valuable, worthy and exceptional than foreigners, beatniks and sympathizers comes with the territory.


Sure and American Patriots will proudly pick vegetables for cents on the dollar just so long as those filthy, disease-ridden brown people are kept out of this Christian nation.
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Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

Post by LarsMac »

Snooz;1532545 wrote:

[QUOTE=spot;1532533]I believe he wants to substitute American Homeland producers for those in China.

Either wages offered by these American Homeland producers will become equivalent to those in China (assuming they can achieve that level of productivity), or your price may vary.

Tooling up might take several years too, but it will Make America Great Again.

To understand American patriotism you have to become an American patriot. Believing American patriots to be more valuable, worthy and exceptional than foreigners, beatniks and sympathizers comes with the territory.


Sure and American Patriots will proudly pick vegetables for cents on the dollar just so long as those filthy, disease-ridden brown people are kept out of this Christian nation.


I always though that I was an American Patriot, but Neither of those options seem to apply to me.
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Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

Post by spot »

spot;1532524 wrote: So, the Californian Dr Erickson in the video. I'm six minutes in and so far he's completely wrong.

He's extrapolated a positive to test ratio to the whole state. He can't do that. The people tested aren't a random selection of the population, they're tested primarily because they're in a high risk environment or they're presenting as ill. The extrapolation is not rational, the rest of the population is neither.

He's also equating the number of tests performed with the number of people tested, which is also clearly mistaken.


Here we are, I said he was talking biased cobblers. That was a political pressure broadcast with no medical input whatever.

The best current estimates are that the Covid-19 death rate is just under 1% and for flu it's 0.1%. These are estimates, which would need large-scale random testing to verify.

On Monday, as the video garnered more views, two professional medical associations, the American College of Emergency Physicians and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine, issued a joint statement condemning the doctors' "reckless and untested musings".

The medical associations said the conclusions reached in the doctors' video were inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding Covid-19, adding: "It appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer-reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public's health."

YouTube removed the full video because it violated its policies which were tightened last week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52487960

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Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

Post by librtyhead »

Hiya Snooze!!!
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

Post by spot »

The UK lifting of the lockdown is cautiously making progress. The only schooling between now and September is reception, year 1 and year 6 getting a few days each to sort themselves out ahead of going up a class. The September restart is probably going to involve most schools offering two or three days a week to every child, but that's just guesswork.

Everyone else is learning the notion of bubbles, where you only get close to a very limited number of people and your group doesn't vary from one week to the next. Within the bubble you don't socially distance, with everyone else you do.Key workers just wear protective clothing all the while and get close if that's part of their job.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

Post by Bryn Mawr »

spot wrote: Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:38 pm The UK lifting of the lockdown is cautiously making progress. The only schooling between now and September is reception, year 1 and year 6 getting a few days each to sort themselves out ahead of going up a class. The September restart is probably going to involve most schools offering two or three days a week to every child, but that's just guesswork.

Everyone else is learning the notion of bubbles, where you only get close to a very limited number of people and your group doesn't vary from one week to the next. Within the bubble you don't socially distance, with everyone else you do.Key workers just wear protective clothing all the while and get close if that's part of their job.
Your last paragraph describes our family perfectly, we're all isolating apart from seeing family and the eldest daughter who works at the hospital stays well clear whenever we see her.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

Post by Bryn Mawr »

A fascinating analysis of the mode of introduction of Covid-19 into the UK :-

https://virological.org/t/preliminary-a ... neages/507
The key conclusions of our analysis are as follows:

The UK epidemic comprises a very large number of importations due to inbound international travel2. We detect 1356 independently-introduced transmission lineages, however, we expect this number to be an under-estimate.

The speed of detection of UK transmission lineages via genome sequencing has increased through time.

Many UK transmission lineages now appear to be very rare or extinct, as they have not been detected by genome sequencing for >4 weeks.

The rate and source of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 lineages into the UK changed substantially and rapidly through time. The rate peaked in mid-March and most introductions occurred during March 2020.

We estimate that ≈34% of detected UK transmission lineages arrived via inbound travel from Spain, ≈29% from France, ≈14% from Italy, and ≈23% from other countries. The relative contributions of these locations were highly dynamic.

The increasing rates and shifting source locations of SARS-CoV-2 importation were not fully captured by early contact tracing.

Our results are preliminary and further analyses of these data are ongoing.
My conclusion? The newly introduced quarantine would have helped if it started three months earlier.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

Post by spot »

I imagine quite a few were holidaymakers we deliberately went out and rescued.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

Post by Bryn Mawr »

spot wrote: Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:14 pm I imagine quite a few were holidaymakers we deliberately went out and rescued.
The report estimates that half of the imports were from UK citizens.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

Post by LarsMac »

In our recent travels, we found a different policy in each state we wandered through.

The basics, though, were common.
Tourist areas were basically closed. If the location had an open area, people were allowed as long as they remained distant, but all gift shops and such were closed down, and rest rooms were mostly closed, though a few where access could be managed a bit, were allowed.
Few dining rooms were open. Food was primarily order and take out, or drive-through ordering. Hotels were limited to essential business travelers in most states.
We did find hotels in Pennsylvania, and Missouri. Both areas were relatively small towns, in out of the way places.
All of the convenience stores at fuel stops were fairly lax in mask requirements. the workers wore them, and the cashiers were behind protective Plexiglas barriers.
No refills to used beverage containers were allowed.
We wiped any product packages we purchased with Alcohol wipes before opening.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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I don't care how susceptible to the virus I might be, if I need to pee, I'm going to use a restroom whether it's been sterilized or not.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

Post by Snooz »

librtyhead wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 6:38 pm Hiya Snooze!!!
Hey buddy!

Honestly, I vaguely remember your name but I don't remember you. Sorry about that, getting old is a bitch.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

Post by LarsMac »

Snooz wrote: Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:55 am I don't care how susceptible to the virus I might be, if I need to pee, I'm going to use a restroom whether it's been sterilized or not.
Yeah, me too. Basically, if the door opens, it is fair territory.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

Post by spot »

The lockdown brakes appear to be off again and I think we all know they're never going to be re-applied with any consistency or rigor.

Is anyone expecting the majority of the population to be vaccinated before Christmas?

Before next June?

Before 2022?

I'm just wondering where today's assumptions lie. I'll be very surprised if the Covid-19 death toll before the end of 2021 is under a million in the US, or under a quarter of a million in the UK, which is where we started our discussion back in March. What the lockdown did is to shift the profile but I don't believe it's affected the end result at all.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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spot wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:35 pm The lockdown brakes appear to be off again and I think we all know they're never going to be re-applied with any consistency or rigor.

Is anyone expecting the majority of the population to be vaccinated before Christmas?

Before next June?

Before 2022?

I'm just wondering where today's assumptions lie. I'll be very surprised if the Covid-19 death toll before the end of 2021 is under a million in the US, or under a quarter of a million in the UK, which is where we started our discussion back in March. What the lockdown did is to shift the profile but I don't believe it's affected the end result at all.
Well, all the goings on of the last month since the thing in Minneapolis have stirred the air quite a bit.
And Florida is coming up with some enormous numbers of COVID cases. Arizona, and Georgia, as well.
While at the Doc's office last week for an unrelated issue, I asked for an antibody test.
I have yet to receive results. I'm not expecting to get a positive report. Just kind of curious. If I turned up positive, I think I would offer myself up to the plasma study.

Here in Colorado, word of possible uptick in cases has people stocking up on TP, again.

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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

Post by spot »

Who would like to offer a couple of prognosticata.

Some people are naturally immune to the current pandemic. Some may have become immune from surviving the infection, whether asymptomatically or after a degree of inconvenience.

All the rest of us will be capable of catching the disease until the day we have an effective vaccination administered, or until most of the rest of the country has become immune, whichever happens first.

So, prognostication 1: do any of us expect that day to be earlier than July 2021? I'm just wondering how optimistic or otherwise the mood is.

And prognostication 2: do any of us still think the death toll by July 2021 will be under 250,000 in the UK, or 1,500,000 in the US? I choose those figures because they were spoken of on ForumGarden back in March, if I recall.

Bear in mind that we'll revisit the thread in July 2021 and see what we thought.
At Tuesday’s hearing, Fauci, director of the National Institutes of Health’s National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, initially declined to directly answer a question by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) about how many deaths and infections Americans should expect before the pandemic ends.

“It’s going to be very disturbing,” Fauci replied. “I will guarantee you that, because when you have an outbreak in one part of the country, even though in other parts of the country they’re doing well, they are vulnerable … It puts the entire country at risk.”
Then Fauci added, “I would not be surprised if we go up to 100,000 a day if this does not turn around, and so I am very concerned.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/f ... story.html

Did you get that result yet, Lars? How trustworthy do you think the test kit was.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

Post by Bryn Mawr »

spot wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:31 pm Who would like to offer a couple of prognosticata.

Some people are naturally immune to the current pandemic. Some may have become immune from surviving the infection, whether asymptomatically or after a degree of inconvenience.

All the rest of us will be capable of catching the disease until the day we have an effective vaccination administered, or until most of the rest of the country has become immune, whichever happens first.

So, prognostication 1: do any of us expect that day to be earlier than July 2021? I'm just wondering how optimistic or otherwise the mood is.

And prognostication 2: do any of us still think the death toll by July 2021 will be under 250,000 in the UK, or 1,500,000 in the US? I choose those figures because they were spoken of on ForumGarden back in March, if I recall.

Bear in mind that we'll revisit the thread in July 2021 and see what we thought.
At Tuesday’s hearing, Fauci, director of the National Institutes of Health’s National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, initially declined to directly answer a question by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) about how many deaths and infections Americans should expect before the pandemic ends.

“It’s going to be very disturbing,” Fauci replied. “I will guarantee you that, because when you have an outbreak in one part of the country, even though in other parts of the country they’re doing well, they are vulnerable … It puts the entire country at risk.”
Then Fauci added, “I would not be surprised if we go up to 100,000 a day if this does not turn around, and so I am very concerned.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/f ... story.html

Did you get that result yet, Lars? How trustworthy do you think the test kit was.
A date for sufficient of the population to have been vaccinated? End of next year.

Final death rate? I certainly hope that it will be well below those figures but I wouldn’t bet on it.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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spot wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:31 pm Who would like to offer a couple of prognosticata.

Some people are naturally immune to the current pandemic. Some may have become immune from surviving the infection, whether asymptomatically or after a degree of inconvenience.

All the rest of us will be capable of catching the disease until the day we have an effective vaccination administered, or until most of the rest of the country has become immune, whichever happens first.

So, prognostication 1: do any of us expect that day to be earlier than July 2021? I'm just wondering how optimistic or otherwise the mood is.

And prognostication 2: do any of us still think the death toll by July 2021 will be under 250,000 in the UK, or 1,500,000 in the US? I choose those figures because they were spoken of on ForumGarden back in March, if I recall.

Bear in mind that we'll revisit the thread in July 2021 and see what we thought.
At Tuesday’s hearing, Fauci, director of the National Institutes of Health’s National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, initially declined to directly answer a question by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) about how many deaths and infections Americans should expect before the pandemic ends.

“It’s going to be very disturbing,” Fauci replied. “I will guarantee you that, because when you have an outbreak in one part of the country, even though in other parts of the country they’re doing well, they are vulnerable … It puts the entire country at risk.”
Then Fauci added, “I would not be surprised if we go up to 100,000 a day if this does not turn around, and so I am very concerned.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/f ... story.html

Did you get that result yet, Lars? How trustworthy do you think the test kit was.
Oddly enough, I've still yet to hear from the Doc, or the lab. It was a blood draw. I presume that if the results were of a concern the Doc's office would have contacted me by now.
????
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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There's a slight contradiction from the White House today:
“We condemn the Hong Kong government’s decision to postpone for one year its legislative council elections and to disqualify opposition candidates,” White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said at a news briefing. Reading from a prepared statement,she characterized the move as part of an effort by China to deny “promised autonomy and freedom to the Hong Kong people.”

On Thursday, Trump drew immediate rebukes from across the political spectrum after proposing to delay the Nov. 3 election and claiming without evidence that widespread mail balloting would be a “catastrophic disaster” leading to fraudulent results — an assertion he repeated later Friday when speaking to reporters.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html
It's almost surreal.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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spot wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:01 am spot;1530471 wrote: Elsewhere, "IOC insists Tokyo Olympics will go ahead despite coronavirus ".


"I proposed to postpone for a year and [IOC] president Thomas Bach responded with 100% agreement," said Shinzo Abe, Japan's Prime Minister.

They took over five weeks to make that obvious decision.
And Japan is in a similar state of denial this year too. The Games can't possibly go ahead this year but they keep saying it will. How on earth do they think they can accommodate an audience, for one thing.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

Post by LarsMac »

Just reading about it in the AP.
While Officials want to see the games go on, the reality seems pretty harsh.
All the time and money spent will hurt if the games fail to go on. But Realists are pretty sure that the world will not be ready, logistically, to handle what could prove to be the greatest "Super-Spreader event of all time"
Most countries will be fortunate to have even a quarter of their citizens vaccinated by July.

AP (Associated Press) has a fairly readable piece on the subject.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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If the officious money-grubbing twerps in Australia had even just refused to allow any Australian Tennis Open contender a travel permit, and organized for the whole event to be played by players from the local schools, it would have been more sensible than the farrago they have at the moment.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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The question of whether SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes Covid-19, first infected a human as a result of a leak from the National Biosafety Laboratory at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, is hotting up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-57926368

There are only two biosafety level 4 facilities in the whole of China. One of those is located within a mile of the presumed initial outbreak.

That could of course be a coincidence. I don't like coincidences at all but I concede they're not impossibilities.

A relevant question is whether anything has ever escaped from biosafety containment in the past. In the UK alone, for example, a foot and mouth outbreak started from one in Pirbright and the final Smallpox transmission came from one at Birmingham University. The question is legitimate.

There's also the matter of America having banned research into viral gain-of-function research. I think this clipping is accurate, though it's a lousy source:
At a May 11 Senate hearing, Dr. Rand Paul interrogated Dr. Anthony Fauci on the role of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) in advancing coronavirus gain-of-function research. As director of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID) at the NIH, Dr. Fauci tried to dissociate the NIH, its director, Dr. Francis Collins, and himself from having any connection to coronavirus gain-of-function research. A moratorium was placed on this unethical virus experimentation in 2014, but the NIH established a loophole in the moratorium, allowing American and Chinese scientists a way to continue these dangerous virus, animal, and human experiments.

https://europerenaissance.com/2021/05/1 ... bioweapon/
If Coronavirus gain-of-function research was ever performed or proposed at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, and if it was funded in whole or in part by American research funding, I think the fact should be made public. That evidence, if it happened, would definitely exist in America quite independently from any information which could be sought within China. The answer may be commercially confidential but the question has a higher priority and the answer should be immediately disclosed.

Should the answer to that be yes, the follow-up is whether SARS-CoV-2 was held in the facility during 2019. Answering that, as opposed to the first question, requires political cooperation in China. If the first answer was yes then I expect China's cooperation would be enthusiastically given.

A third question, if the first two are yes, would be whether the virus is genetically modified from its wild state, but the second and third questions require the funding issue to be explored first. The funding issue needs no cooperation from China at all, it's an American matter. I doubt it would just be disclosed without legal compulsion. Appropriate evidence could, of course, be leaked through news outlets. I'm sure the Washington Post would oblige.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

Post by spot »

spot wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:28 am
spot wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:01 am spot;1530471 wrote: Elsewhere, "IOC insists Tokyo Olympics will go ahead despite coronavirus ".


"I proposed to postpone for a year and [IOC] president Thomas Bach responded with 100% agreement," said Shinzo Abe, Japan's Prime Minister.

They took over five weeks to make that obvious decision.
And Japan is in a similar state of denial this year too. The Games can't possibly go ahead this year but they keep saying it will. How on earth do they think they can accommodate an audience, for one thing.
The opening ceremony is on Friday, where a crowd of 900 is being allowed to attend. Most people in Japan say the Games should have been cancelled. I can't imagine the current arrangements will improve Tokyo's public image in years to come.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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spot wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:32 am The question of whether SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes Covid-19, first infected a human as a result of a leak from the National Biosafety Laboratory at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, is hotting up.
I note the following arrived on the BBC news website a day after my post. Had it been earlier I'd have referenced it.
Coronavirus: Was US money used to fund risky research in China?


Did the US fund virus research in China?

Yes, it did contribute some funds.

Dr Fauci, as well as being an adviser to President Biden, is the director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the US government's National Institutes of Health (NIH).

This body did give money to an organisation that collaborated with the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

That organisation - the US-based EcoHealth Alliance - was awarded a grant in 2014 to look into possible coronaviruses from bats.

EcoHealth received $3.7m from the NIH, $600,000 of which was given to the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

In 2019, its project was renewed for another five years, but then pulled by the Trump administration in April 2020 following the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic.

So - was SARS-CoV-2 held in the Wuhan Institute of Virology during 2019?
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

Post by spot »

There is a new word in England.

Pingdemic.

It took me ages to work this one out. A ping is a sonar or Internet interrogation with something sent out and a response listened for. The Pingdemic seemed to be a word for a vast number of pings in relation to the Covid Track and Trace protocol but I didn't see how.

What I discovered eventually is that the "ping" relates to an obsolete sense of the word in which the sound of a sonar ping is imitated, and the Covid Track and Trace app uses this sound to get the attention of the app's user. When hundreds of thousands of phones make the sound it's a pingdemic.

I'm not impressed. We'll end up with a new word whenever lots of things all happen in a short space of time. When people all choose to hawk in the gutter for example, that'll be a phlegmdemic.

I'd prefer to stick with the existing word hoard rather than coining new instances.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

Post by spot »

spot wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:32 am Should the answer to that be yes, the follow-up is whether SARS-CoV-2 was held in the facility during 2019. Answering that, as opposed to the first question, requires political cooperation in China. If the first answer was yes then I expect China's cooperation would be enthusiastically given.


Oddly enough it might be the second question which gets answered before the first.
An online open-source intelligence group last year identified that a virus studied at the Wuhan Institute of Virology taken from an abandoned copper mine in Yunnan province was the closest known relative to Sars-CoV-2

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... ster-grows


I hadn't expected that at all. I clearly missed that first time around. I can't rely on my memory these days. What it refers to all goes back to a single source, https://drasticresearch.org/ which may, so long as it never gets hijacked, be a legitimate attempt at informed open-source scientific analysis. One can at least hope so.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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At this stage in the game, where the bug came from is far less of a concern for most of us than how we will deal with it in the next couple of years.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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LarsMac wrote: Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:31 am At this stage in the game, where the bug came from is far less of a concern for most of us than how we will deal with it in the next couple of years.
I think the world will react differently if it turns out the project which leaked was US-financed, you know. Seriously. Research banned on safety grounds in the Homeland but sponsored in China?

Dealing with it involves vaccination without charge to the patient, worldwide. The quicker the better, and with as much health education as it takes.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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North Korea seems to have finally fallen into a Covid outbreak, having avoided one for over two years. That's another country with the genie out of the bottle. I doubt they've vaccinated many people. They and China were the last major hold-outs. I doubt China can stop things escalating now. Possibly North Korea can but it would be remarkable if they do.

Here's what I remember of the development in the UK. From fairly early on, the government gambled on generating mass immunity by several means:

It had an utterly inept track and trace system which never achieved anything at all, part of which was a shambles of an app attempting to automate the detection and notification of exposures.

It had a wildly overpriced public sector acquisition phase for PPE where a stack of spivs made their fortunes, some of whom were undoubtedly contracted corruptly by having friends in government.

It tried to hold down infection rates by a lot of stay-at-home rules, work from home, subsidized pay where companies kept people employed after laying them off. The attempt was compromised early on by moving untested but infected pensioners from hospital into care homes which rapidly killed 40,000 unvaccinated residents who could otherwise have been kept safely isolated.

It did that for as long as it took to vaccinate over 70% of all the vulnerable categories and care-home and hospital workers.

Then it took off the brakes and said okay, everyone else can now catch Covid and it'll be sorted, the NHS can cope with the thousand a week death rate while we get out of this tunnel.

What's wrong with that, in hindsight, is the government advisers gambling that catching Covid would prevent re-infection and that the first generation of vaccines would protect for rather longer than a few months. Neither assumption turned out to be true. Maybe in the future there might be longer-lasting vaccines but there haven't been any at all so far which provide lasting immunity.

The UK government is now, in consequence, left with a continuing death rate of over 50,000 a year and no plan at all capable of reducing it. That's where we've reached and that's where we'll stay. The equivalent figure for America is a quarter of a million annual deaths from here on out.

As a footnote, the present estimate for American children is that two thirds have already caught Covid at least once.

So far, none of the increasingly infective Covid virus strains have been more lethal than the one before. If that changes I'm not sure what response would be useful, neither country is going to tolerate a further lockdown period.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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North Korea seems to be the "Social Distancing Champions" With the possible exception of some obscure tribe in the upper Amazon Drainage.

On a personal note, The Mrs. got her second dose, yesterday. I hope that she does not suffer the same sort of after affects that I did. I was down and out most of the following day. We'll see how she feels when she awakes.

We had a program similar to the track and trace thing that tried to spin up here in the US, but it seems to have failed, miserably.
I received a warning that I had possibly been exposed a couple of days after we took the Mrs. to the ER for treatment for here COVID.
That has been the entirety of our experience with the program. Given Americans' recent fascination with "Privacy" I expected something like that.

Around here, Influenza seems to be making a new appearance. The early fires and high winds, combined with the general refusal of Vaccines this last winter seems to have opened an opportunity for the Flu bug to make Spring assault.

It's going to be an interesting year.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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Suddenly, Monkey Pox has taken the floor.
Everybody out here is worried about getting Monkey Pox.
Sheez, They can't put in the effort to get Vax'd for COVID, or the Flu, but now that the Monkeys are in on it. Everybody wants to get that shot.
Maybe we should start suggesting the the COVID Vax also prevents Monkey Pox.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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Monkeypox is a silly obscure irritant disease caught in embarrassing situations. You'd think people would be more aware of ticks and Lyme disease than monkeypox, at least you get it from outdoor exercise. I have more chance of being struck by lightning than catching either. Unlike Covid-19, which is killing tens of millions instead of none at all.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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We are referring to a society in which many are convinced that having a lot of guns saves lives, here.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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spot wrote: Sun May 29, 2022 12:02 am Monkeypox is a silly obscure irritant disease caught in embarrassing situations. You'd think people would be more aware of ticks and Lyme disease than monkeypox, at least you get it from outdoor exercise. I have more chance of being struck by lightning than catching either. Unlike Covid-19, which is killing tens of millions instead of none at all.
Well, it seems to no longer be quite as obscure as it once was. Though still not likely to be quite the threat to national Health as COVID19 has proved to be.
Our neighbor was just complaining that it is impossible to get the "Monkey Vaccine."

I asked him if he had asked the folks over at the local COVID clinic about it. He said, "Hell, no! I'm not goin near THAT place."

Ah, Is America a Great Country, or what?
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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I'm wondering to what extent America has always been such an illogical self-deluded society. My instinct is that it's never been anything else but I'm fully aware of my possible bias, ignorance and inexperience.

One can start with the self-selected initial European arrivals, mad as hatters, extraordinarily obsessive greed-ridden and above all incompetent sanctimonious bigots - Spanish and English both, but I had the Pilgrim Fathers in mind. At some point American society got over all that and became sane, sunny, coherent and exclusively focused on the equal right of all humanity to life, liberty and the pursuit of something beneficial. My problem is I can't yet put a date on that moment.

No doubt Frank Capra could put me straight but I'm not sure I trust his judgement.

I'm writing this from a balcony on the Signal Deck of the QE2, looking out over the Persian Gulf. Compared with the streets of central Birmingham, Dubai is a haven of tranquility.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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spot wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 6:39 pmHere's what I remember of the development in the UK [...]

It had a wildly overpriced public sector acquisition phase for PPE where a stack of spivs made their fortunes, some of whom were undoubtedly contracted corruptly by having friends in government.

The House of Lords standards commissioner has launched an investigation into a Conservative peer for potentially breaching financial conduct rules, relating to the award of £50m of government contracts for supplying PPE during the Covid pandemic.

Peter Selwyn Gummer, who has sat in the upper house as Lord Chadlington for 26 years, recommended to the government a company that was part of a group in which he was a director and shareholder.

Gummer’s fellow Tory peer, Lord Feldman, who was working for the Department of Health and Social Care as an unpaid adviser, referred SG Recruitment to the “VIP lane” for politically connected companies, and it was awarded two PPE contracts.

The first, for £23.9m, awarded in April 2020, was for the supply of coveralls; the second, for £26.1m to supply hand sanitiser, was awarded the following month. At the time, Gummer was a director and shareholder of the parent company, Sumner Group Holdings. Earlier this month he updated his Lords register of interests to state that he ceased to be a director of the company in July 2021 but he remains a shareholder.

SG Recruitment was a small company before the pandemic, which worked to recruit nurses and other healthcare professionals to the NHS. The award of £50m of PPE contracts appears to have transformed its financial fortunes; in the year to 31 March 2020 the company turned over less than £500,000.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... -contracts


And there's a lot more out there, if anyone could be bothered to bring the rogues to court.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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spot wrote: Tue May 31, 2022 11:02 pm I'm wondering to what extent America has always been such an illogical self-deluded society. My instinct is that it's never been anything else but I'm fully aware of my possible bias, ignorance and inexperience.

One can start with the self-selected initial European arrivals, mad as hatters, extraordinarily obsessive greed-ridden and above all incompetent sanctimonious bigots - Spanish and English both, but I had the Pilgrim Fathers in mind. At some point American society got over all that and became sane, sunny, coherent and exclusively focused on the equal right of all humanity to life, liberty and the pursuit of something beneficial. My problem is I can't yet put a date on that moment.

No doubt Frank Capra could put me straight but I'm not sure I trust his judgement.




America had its moment. It was probably in the last quarter of the 18th Century when we struggled over the meaning of some of the words in the Constitution of The United States of America.
I think the crucial moment was when we came up with the phrase "With Liberty and Justice for all", while at the same time, we struggled with how to calculate the number a representatives from the states based on the number of free men in each state, and whether to, and if so how, to include the slaves in those states. We actually decided that a slave counted as three fifths of a person for census related to how the state was to be represented in Congress, while at the same time declare freedom, Liberty and justice for all men, ignoring the fact that a slave might actually be a man.struggle grew into a massive case of National Schizophrenia, which now seems to be expressing itself on our current struggles with immunization as well as in the struggle to define our sexual identity.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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Youngest granddaughter had a baby girl this week. According to the docs, she had a case of COVID while carrying.
The whole family group, Son, DiL, and their other kids, and, the Dad's family.
My guess is that they all picked it up during a rather large Celebration called a "Baby Shower" (which we also attended - fortunately, we were vax'd.)
The good news is that none of the family members developed any serious symptoms that required medical intervention. The Doc says that it is highly likely that the baby will have developed immunity from the bug, at least temporarily, and possibly long term.

Evidently, the best we may hope for is that COVID will become just another annoying bug the likes of the common cold, and the Flu.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

Post by Bryn Mawr »

LarsMac wrote: Thu Jun 09, 2022 7:54 am Youngest granddaughter had a baby girl this week. According to the docs, she had a case of COVID while carrying.
The whole family group, Son, DiL, and their other kids, and, the Dad's family.
My guess is that they all picked it up during a rather large Celebration called a "Baby Shower" (which we also attended - fortunately, we were vax'd.)
The good news is that none of the family members developed any serious symptoms that required medical intervention. The Doc says that it is highly likely that the baby will have developed immunity from the bug, at least temporarily, and possibly long term.

Evidently, the best we may hope for is that COVID will become just another annoying bug the likes of the common cold, and the Flu.
Happy there were no complications but, more importantly, congratulations 👏
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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Babies are overrated. But even so, congratulations, I hope she and the rest of the family do well.

I might have a look at the current annual Covid-19 death rate. I have it in mind the UK is seeing 50,000 a year and the US around 250,000. If people are complaining about 45,000 firearm deaths a year in the US, you'd think they'd be more worried by five times the rate with Covid still.

This notion of comparing the impact of deaths by anything other than scale has baffled me for years. The Pope, the day after the Uvalde incident, made a public announcement that he was "heartbroken", and yet the same week there were 79 people dead from a single refugee capsize off the Libyan coast. Why is anyone more bothered by Uvalde than by the capsize? Are the lives of refugees less valuable? Is scale irrelevant?

There are refugees dying off the Libyan coast solely because President Obama's Secretary of State directed the overthrow of the Libyan government and the murder of the then President, Muammar Gaddafi. Not one of those 79 deaths would have happened had the US not deliberately set out on destabilizing Libya. I'd describe the 79 deaths as more culpable, more reprehensible, more scandalous than those at Uvalde because they were a direct consequence of the acts of sane powerful politicians. Uvalde was clearly the act of a mentally disturbed individual who, had he not been killed, could have recovered. It's outrageous that the gunman comes in for more visceral condemnation than those who plotted the disintegration of the wealthiest nation in Africa, and its predictable refugee outcome.
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Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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Well, I'd prefer to take my chances with COVID than with a kid carrying an AR-15 in a public school. And we are doing much of what we can to deal with COVID, but crazy kids with AR-15's? Nope. there are more and more of them, and we have done nothing, yet.
As for a boatload of refugees, well, that's pretty far out there, but yes, it would probably be easier to fix that problem than the kids with AR-15s, looking for meat.

Mr Gaddafi was somewhat daft, and, as far as I can tell, he bears much of the responsibility for most of the Libya related deaths, even now.

to use your reference, we could compare his body count to the shooters with head problems, and that score will eventually exceed Mr Gaddafi's
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