Positive outcome from brexit

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gmc
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Positive outcome from brexit

Post by gmc »

https://www.thenational.scot/news/17873 ... -will-say/

" The Claim of Right 1689 states that there are legal limits on the power of the monarchy and our case is firmly based on the independent Scottish constitutional tradition that the monarch is in part subject to public responsibilities – to the people and the law. Her role is to serve, not to rule.

Furthermore, there is recent UK Supreme Court authority that the exercise of the prerogative power is open to review by the court The UK is a multi-national entity and the Scottish courts hold the Crown to account subject to Scots law. So a Scottish court can bind the Parliament in London.

The Act of Union did not abolish or subordinate Scottish constitutional law and our distinct legal tradition continues.

The advice which the UK Government gave the Queen was unlawful and unconstitutional because its purpose is to restrict Parliament’s ability to hold the Government to account and, because the advice frustrates the will of Parliament to scrutinise the Brexit process as expressed in a number of statutes, including the EU (Withdrawal) Act, the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Act and the Fixed Term Parliaments Act. "

Funnily enopugh the mainstream media don't mention the scottish court case except to assume that not immedialtely granting an interim interdict means the case was lost.
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spot
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Positive outcome from brexit

Post by spot »

Well yes, that's what they went to the court to adjudicate, but you might have noticed the court dismissed the application.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
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gmc
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Positive outcome from brexit

Post by gmc »

spot;1524740 wrote: Well yes, that's what they went to the court to adjudicate, but you might have noticed the court dismissed the application.


Ne he didn't what he did was reject granting the interim interdict (in english law that would be a temporary injunction) but brought forward the full hearing to the 3rd of september.

The english case is on the fifth in a london high court.
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Post by spot »

gmc;1524754 wrote: Ne he didn't what he did was reject granting the interim interdict (in english law that would be a temporary injunction) but brought forward the full hearing to the 3rd of september.
I do think we said the same thing - the judge dismissed the application for an interim interdict. I agree we have no idea what the final statement will say but I doubt very much that it will be up to that court to decide anything at all, both parties will immediately appeal whatever is found. It appeared to me from your quote that you were suggesting the quoted text had been accepted, but that may just have been how I was seeing it.

I also doubt that any court order will restrict the options available to the government prior to an appeal being heard, whichever party makes the appeal.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
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Positive outcome from brexit

Post by spot »

Here we go - hearing today, verdict tomorrow.It isn't just MPs who are trying to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

The courts are getting involved too - and legal action will be heard at Scotland's highest civil court today.

This challenge is brought by SNP MP Joanna Cherry and 74 other MPs and peers.

The parliamentarians are seeking a ruling that Boris Johnson is acting unlawfully - because suspension of Parliament is, they argue, a denial of political accountability, curtails Parliamentary scrutiny of Brexit options, and is therefore unconstitutional.

The UK government has argued it is acting entirely lawfully and that this is a normal exercise of proroguing power.

The judgment from today's hearing will be released tomorrow.

It's interesting that the Lord Advocate, James Wolffe QC - Scotland's highest law officer - has applied to make representations in this challenge.

If he's allowed to do so, we're told that he will argue that the PM's prorogation of Parliament is an abuse of executive power.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-49557734




I do not quite understand how they hope to demonstrate that the prorogation is peculiar, it's conventional and prior to Theresa May it was annual at this time of year. What they may be trying to demonstrate is that the times themselves are peculiar and there's some constitutional precedent that shows Parliament should remain sitting, but I don't know what precedent they could call on. No doubt we shall find out.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
gmc
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Positive outcome from brexit

Post by gmc »

spot;1524759 wrote: Here we go - hearing today, verdict tomorrow.

I do not quite understand how they hope to demonstrate that the prorogation is peculiar, it's conventional and prior to Theresa May it was annual at this time of year. What they may be trying to demonstrate is that the times themselves are peculiar and there's some constitutional precedent that shows Parliament should remain sitting, but I don't know what precedent they could call on. No doubt we shall find out.


Come off it the biggest change to the UK in peacetime and one that will have consequences for years to come and you think proroging parliament to prevent discussion is something they should get away with? All the brexiteers are consumate liars.
gmc
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Post by gmc »

https://www.thenational.scot/news/17878 ... ish-court/

" The case led by SNP MP Joanna Cherry took a dramatic turn when papers handed to Cherry’s lawyers at 11pm on Monday night turned out to include evidence that Johnson was considering suspending Parliament as early as August 15 – for several days after that, Downing Street denied that there was any plan for prorogation.

At the Court of Session in Edinburgh yesterday Aiden O’Neill QC for Cherry and the 75 other MPs and peers in the action told judge Lord Doherty about a note dated August 15 from Nickki da Costa, a former director of legislative affairs at Number 10, and seen by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his adviser ******* ********, which asked whether an approach should be made to prorogue Parliament. "

What's gping tp be interesting is how the request for a section 30 order (to run another independence referendum ) gets treated. One way oir another the UK will cease to exist as poliotical entity very soon I think.
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Post by spot »

I notice your judge said no and the appeal process has been triggered.

We're in an interesting place now. Last night's vote permits a vote today to force the Prime Minister to ask for an extension and would prevent him from exiting unilaterally with no deal on Halloween.

Downing Street said the 21 Tory MPs who rebelled in Tuesday's vote would have the whip removed, effectively expelling them from the parliamentary party and meaning they could not stand as Conservative candidates in the election.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49574217




Among whom, notably, is Nicholas Soames, the grandson of Winston Churchill.

Soames was among several Tory veterans who were deeply torn on whether to rebel after a fraught meeting with the prime minister on Tuesday, but he said he would rebel “with a very heavy heart” because he believed there was no chance to get a deal by October. Afterwards he confirmed he would not stand at the next election.


Soames was a scoundrel, an arrogant self-centred manifestation for his entire life of all that was wrong with the entitled capitalists who own the nation, and I'll be delighted if I never hear him speak again. He stood against Boris for the leadership, lost and fell among sour grapes. I will nevertheless grudgingly quote from Macbeth that "nothing in his life became him like the leaving it; he died as one that had been studied in his death to throw away the dearest thing he owed, as 'twere a careless trifle".

So perish all traitors, as the Westminster executioner used to announce.

Boris can only call a General Election if Labour allows him to, and Labour will only allow him to if today's vote banning No Deal is passed into law first.

I think Boris is at this moment practising his Kenneth Williams impersonation - Infamy, infamy, they've all got it in for me - and that he will run October's General Election asking all Leave voters regardless of party to back him. He is a gambler. He will claim without evidence that he practically had the perfect deal in his hand, that he can still get it, he will describe everyone who voted against him as the problem, and ask for a stonking majority to get him over the finishing line, and even the people who vote for him know perfectly well he's lied his head off. Boris's proposal to the EU has as its central plank that the UK will make trade deals wherever it likes, and no deal from Europe is going to agree to that.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
gmc
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Positive outcome from brexit

Post by gmc »

Jacob rees mogg has voted against the tory government over 100 times, incliuding against theresa may's deal.

They're ****es the lot of them.

"He is a gambler. He will claim without evidence that he practically had the perfect deal in his hand, that he can still get it, he will describe everyone who voted against him as the problem, and ask for a stonking majority to get him over the finishing line, and even the people who vote for him know perfectly well he's lied his head off. Boris's proposal to the EU has as its central plank that the UK will make trade deals wherever it likes, and no deal from Europe is going to agree to that. "

It will come as no surprise that the eu negotiators have no ideawhat progress he is talking about.
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Post by FourPart »

Gotta laugh that in the morning Corbyn was challenging Boris to a General Election. Then when Boris put the motion forward to call one he opposed it.

Boris was right. Corbyn is the first Leader of the Opposition in history to have Opposed a General Election.

I was a Labour Party Member, but after they reneged on their pledge to respect the result of the Referendum I quit the Party, as have thousands of others. I will also no longer be voting Labour, and once again, I know of plenty of others who are thinking likewise.

The majority of Labour Constituencies are pro-Leave. Even more of those that they need to Gain are pro-Leave. Most of those that they narrowly Gained last time were pro-Leave, on the pledge that they would respect the Referendum.

Labour now need to fight an Election on a Remain platform within Leave constituencies after they have already totally u-turned on their previous promises. Good luck with that one.
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Post by spot »

FourPart;1524802 wrote: Gotta laugh that in the morning Corbyn was challenging Boris to a General Election. Then when Boris put the motion forward to call one he opposed it.






Otherwise the General Election, like the prorogation, would run the clock down to the wire without Parliament being able to affect the No Deal outcome. Why is "Labour will only allow him to if today's vote banning No Deal is passed into law first" unreasonable?
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
gmc
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Positive outcome from brexit

Post by gmc »

FourPart;1524802 wrote: Gotta laugh that in the morning Corbyn was challenging Boris to a General Election. Then when Boris put the motion forward to call one he opposed it.

Boris was right. Corbyn is the first Leader of the Opposition in history to have Opposed a General Election.

I was a Labour Party Member, but after they reneged on their pledge to respect the result of the Referendum I quit the Party, as have thousands of others. I will also no longer be voting Labour, and once again, I know of plenty of others who are thinking likewise.

The majority of Labour Constituencies are pro-Leave. Even more of those that they need to Gain are pro-Leave. Most of those that they narrowly Gained last time were pro-Leave, on the pledge that they would respect the Referendum.

Labour now need to fight an Election on a Remain platform within Leave constituencies after they have already totally u-turned on their previous promises. Good luck with that one.


I suspect a lot pf leave voters have changed their minds, plus there are now an awful lot more who have turned 18 in the last three years not to mention the 12million thaT didn't vote the last time. The bigger problem might be the remaon vote is split and the tories get back in because of our first past the vote system which skews the result. Cameron also prevented EU residents living voting in the referendum - although they can vote in westminster elections, as well as british expats living in europe. That needs to change.

Boris wants an election because e can make the date after we have left the eu.

Why on earth do you still support leaving the eu? Do you net understand what a disaster it will be for our economy, for scientific research.

I have yet to hear a brexiteer able to give me any positive benefits of leaving the eu.

Now we have brexiteers trying to bypass the parliament they wanted to take back control cheered on by people who don't seem able to understand why that is so undemocratic. Either way the united kingdom is finished as a politocal entity.
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Post by spot »

Two points have come out on the BBC News this morning.

One is that the EU would be less damaged by losing the UK than it would be by giving in and then having to give in interminably to all other EU States which queue up for a similar backdown. It's not a new observation but it's worth bringing back into the discussion.

The other is that this week's legislation will indeed oblige the UK government to ask for an extension to the Halloween deadline, but that at the EU October Summit the UK government itself could veto the extension it just asked for. Any of the 27 nations can apply such a veto including the UK itself, nothing in EU or UK law would prevent it. This is something of a wow blimey so it could insight.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
gmc
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Positive outcome from brexit

Post by gmc »

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-st ... -1-6257940

Convention of Nigels planned to try to stop the name becoming extinct after the rise of Farage
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Post by spot »

The event was first launched by Smith last year following news that no babies had been named Nigel in the UK since 2015, the year before the EU referendum.


It's a grand conceit but not entirely true. There were eight boys named Nigel last year. It's still a huge drop from 23rd though.

When I was born I my name was top of the list, it's now 123rd.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
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The Scottish appeal court has declared the proroguing null and void, the case now goes to join the process from the English court for a final decision by the British supreme court.

A UK government appeal against the ruling will be head by the Supreme Court in London on Tuesday.

The Court of Session decision overturns an earlier ruling from the court, which said last week that Mr Johnson had not broken the law.

It is currently unclear what impact the judgement will have on the current five week suspension of Parliament, a process known as proroguing, which started in the early hours of Tuesday.

Opposition parties have called for Parliament to be immediately recalled, but government sources have told the BBC that the demands would be rejected.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-49661855

Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
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Post by spot »

The government complied with parliament last night and released the full text of Yellowhammer, as a scanned non-OCR five page PDF. Here's the text for anyone keen to see it more clearly. Point 18 is the blockbuster if anyone wants a suggestion of where to focus.





OFFICIAL SENSITIVE

Operation Yellowhammer

HMG Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions

As of 2 August 2019




When the UK ceases to be a member of the EU in October 2019 all rights and reciprocal arrangements with the EU end.

The UK reverts fully to ‘third country’ status. The relationship between the UK and the EU as a whole is unsympathetic, with many MS [Member States] (under pressure from the Commission) unwilling to engage bilaterally and implementing protections unilaterally, though some MS may be more understanding.

No bilateral deals have been concluded with individual member states with the exception of the reciprocal agreement on social security coordination with Ireland. EU Citizens living in the UK can retain broadly all rights and status that they were entitled to prior to exit from the EU, at the point of exit.

Public and business readiness for a no-deal will remain at a low level, and will decrease to lower levels, because the absence of a clear decision on the form of EU Exit (customs union, no deal etc) does not provide a concrete situation for third parties to prepare for. Readiness will be further limited by increasing EU Exit fatigue, due to the second extension of Article 50, which will limit the effective impact of current preparedness communication. (To be reviewed)

Business readiness will not be uniform — in general larger businesses across sectors are more likely to have better developed contingency plans than small and medium sized businesses. Business readiness will be compounded by seasonal effects, impacting on factors such as warehouse availability.

Concurrent risks associated with autumn and winter such as severe weather, flooding and seasonal flu could exacerbate a number of impacts and stretch resources of partners and responders.

Private sector companies’ behaviour will be governed by commercial considerations, unless influenced otherwise.

HMG will act lawfully and in accordance with the rule of law, including by identifying the powers it is using to take specific actions.


Key planning assumptions



For the purpose of freight flow and traffic management as 31 October is a Thursday, day 1 of exit is now on a Friday rather than the weekend which is not to our advantage. Exit day may coincide with end of October half term school holidays, which vary across the UK. (CCS/DExEU)

France will impose EU mandatory controls on UK goods on Day 1 No Deal (D1 ND) and have built infrastructure and IT system to manage and process customs declarations and support a risk based control regime. On D1 ND, between 50-85% of HGVs travelling via the short Channel Straits may not be ready for French customs. The lack of trader readiness combined with limited space in French ports to hold “unready” HGVs could reduce the flow rate to 40-60% of current levels within one day as unready HGVs will fill the ports and block flow. The worst disruption to the short Channel Straits might last for up to 3 months before it improves by a significant level to around 50-70% (due to more traders getting prepared), although there could continue to be some disruption for significantly longer. In the event of serious disruption, the French might act to ensure some flow through the short Channel crossings. Disruption to flow across the short Channel Straits would also cause significant queues in Kent and delays to HGVs attempting to use the routes to travel to France. In a reasonable worst case scenario, HGVs could face maximum delays of 1.5-2.5 days before being able to cross the border. HGVs that are caught up in congestion in the UK will be unable to return to the EU to collect another load and a proportion of logistics firms may decide to avoid the route should there be significant and prolonged disruption. Analysis to date has suggested a low risk of significant sustained queues at ports outside of Kent which have high volumes of EU traffic, but BDG will continue to work directly with stakeholders at those ports to support planning readiness (BDG/DfT)

In a small number of instances where the impacts of Brexit would be felt negatively in the EU as well as in the UK, Member States may act in way which could also benefit the UK (e.g. energy for Ireland). (CCS/DExEU)

UK citizens travelling to and from the EU may be subject to increased immigration checks at EU border posts. This may lead to passenger delays at St Pancras, Cheriton (Channel Tunnel) and Dover where juxtaposed controls are in place. Dependent on the plans EU Member States put in place to cope with these increased immigration checks it is likely that delays will occur for UK arrivals and departures at EU airports and ports. This could cause some disruption on transport services. Travellers may decide to use alternative routes to complete their journey. (BDG/FCO/HO/DfT)

Demand for energy will be met and there will be no disruption to electricity or gas interconnectors. In NI there will be not be immediate disruption to electricity supply on Day 1. A rapid SEM [Single Electricity Market] split could occur months or years after EU Exit. In this event, there would not be security of supply issues. However, there will likely be significant electricity price increases for consumers (business and domestic), with associated wider economic and political impacts. Some participants could exit the market, thereby exacerbating the economic and political impacts. (BEIS)

The BDG [Border Delivery Group]/DfT [Department for Transport] planning assumption on reduced flow rates describes a pre-mitigation reasonable worst case flow rate that could be as low as 40% D1 ND via the short Channel Straits, with significant disruption lasting up to six months. Unmitigated, this will have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical supplies. The reliance of medicines and medical products’ supply chains on the short straits crossing make them particularly vulnerable to severe extended delays; three-quarters of medicines come via the short straits. Supply chains are also highly regulated and require transportation that meets strict Good Distribution Practices. This can include limits on time of transit, or mean product must be transported under temperature controlled conditions. Whilst some products can be stockpiled, others cannot due to short shelf lives – it will also not be practical to stockpile products to cover expected delays of up to six months. DHSC [Department for Health and Social Care] is developing a multi-layered approach to mitigate these risks. (DHSC)ii. Any disruption to reduce, delay or stop supply of medicines for UK veterinary use would reduce our ability to prevent and control disease outbreaks, with potential detrimental impacts for animal health and welfare, the environment, and wider food safety/availability and zoonotic diseases which can directly impact human health. Industry stockpiling will not be able to match the 4-12 weeks’ worth of stockpiling which took place in March 2019. Air freight capacity and the special import scheme is not a financially viable mitigation to fully close risks associated with all UK veterinary medicine availability issues due to border disruption. (DEFRA)

Certain types of fresh food supply will decrease. Critical dependencies for the food supply chain (such as key input ingredients, chemicals and packaging) may be in shorter supply. In combination, these two factors will not cause an overall shortage of food in the UK but will reduce availability and choice of products and will increase price, which could impact vulnerable groups. The UK growing season will have come to an end and the Agri-food supply chain will be under increased pressure at this time of year, due to preparations for Christmas, which is the busiest time of year for food retailers. Government will not be able to fully anticipate all potential impacts to the agri-food supply chain. There is a risk that panic buying will cause or exacerbate food supply disruption. (DEFRA)ii. Public water services are likely to remain largely unaffected due to actions now being taken by water companies. The most significant single risk is a failure in the chemical supply chain. The likelihood of this occurring is considered low and the impact is likely to be localised, affecting up to 100,000’s of people. Water companies are well prepared for any disruption; they have significant stocks of all critical chemicals, extensive monitoring of their chemical supply chains (including transportation and all deliveries) and mutual agreements in place. In the event of a supply chain failure, or the need to respond rapidly to other water supply incidents, urgent action may need to be taken to make sure people continue to have access to clean water. (DEFRA)

Some cross-border UK financial services will be disrupted. (HMT)

The EU will not have made a data decision with regard to the UK before exit. This will disrupt the flow of personal data from the EU where an alternative legal basis for transfer is not in place. In no deal an adequacy assessment could take years. (DCMS)

Law enforcement data and information sharing between UK and EU will be disrupted. (HO/NSS)

UK nationals will lose their EU citizenship and, as a result, can expect to lose associated rights and access to services over time, or be required to access them on a different basis to now. All MS [Member States] have now published legislative proposals, but not all have passed legislation to secure all rights for UKNs [UK Nationals]. There is a mixed picture across MS in terms of the level of generosity and detail in the legislation. In some MS, UKNs need to take action now, whilst others they do not. Complex administrative procedures within MS, language barriers and uncertainty regarding the UK political situation are contributing to some UKNs being slow to take action. There will be gaps in both substance and understanding. Demand for help from HMG will increase significantly leading to an increase in consular enquiries and more complex and time-consuming consular assistance cases for vulnerable UKNs. Cross HMG support, including continued close engagement and clear communications messaging from UKG departments and the DAs will be needed to help manage the demand. (FCO)ii. An EU Member State would continue to pay a pension it currently pays to a UK national living in the EU. (DWP)iii. The Commission and individual Member States do not agree to extend the current healthcare arrangements for UK state pensioners and tourists beyond 31 October 2019 and refuse offers by the UK to fund treatments. Member States take no further action to guarantee healthcare for UK nationals and treat them in the same way as other 3rd country nationals. UK pensioners, workers, travellers and students will need to access healthcare in different ways, depending on the country. Healthcare may require people to demonstrate residency, current or previous employment, enter a social insurance scheme, or purchase private insurance. Member States should treat people with urgent needs, but may require them to pay after the fact. There is a risk of disruption for patients and a minority could face substantial costs. (DHSC)

Gibraltar, due to the imposition of border checks at its border with Spain (and the knock-on effect of delays from the UK to EU), will see disruption to supply of goods (including food), medicines, trans-frontier shipment of waste and delays of 4+ hours for at least a few months in the movement of frontier workers, residents and tourists across the border. Prolonged border delays over the longer term are likely to adversely impact Gibraltar’s economy. Like the UK mainland, cross-border services and data flow will also be disrupted. Despite the time extension to EU Exit, Gibraltar has still not taken decisions to invest in contingency infrastructure (port adjustments; waste management equipment) and there are still concerns that Gibraltar will not have passed all necessary legislation for No Deal, opening up potential legal gaps/risks mainly for the Government of Gibraltar. Gibraltar continues to plan for less significant border delays than our Yellowhammer scenario. Crown Dependencies may be affected by supply chain disruption. (FCO/MoJ)

Protests and counter-protests will take place across the UK and may absorb significant amounts of police resource. There may also be a rise in public disorder and community tensions. (HO)

Regional traffic disruption caused by border delays could affect fuel distribution within the local area, particularly if traffic queues in Kent block the Dartford crossing, which would disrupt fuel supply in London and the South-East. Customer behaviour could lead to local shortages in other parts of the country. (BEIS)

REDACTED

A small minority of insurance payments from UK insurers into the EU may be delayed. (HMT)

Low income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel. (HMT)

On D1 ND HMG will operationalise the “no new checks with limited exceptions” model announced 13 March, establishing a legislative framework and essential operations and system on the ground, to avoid an immediate risk of a return to a hard border on the UK side. The model is likely to prove unsustainable due to significant economic, legal and biosecurity risks and no effective unilateral mitigations to address this will be available. With the UK becoming a third country, the automatic application of the EU tariff and regulatory requirements for goods entering Ireland will severely disrupt trade. The expectation is some businesses will stop trade or relocate to avoid paying the tariff which will make them uncompetitive or to avoid the risk of trading illegally, while others will continue to trade, but experience higher costs which may be passed on to consumers. The agri-food sector will be the hardest hit, given its reliance on highly integrated cross border supply chains and high tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade. Disruption to key sectors and job losses are likely to result in protests and direct action with road blockages. Price and other differentials are likely to lead to the growth of the illegitimate economy. This will be particularly severe in border communities where both criminal and dissident groups already operate with greater threat and impunity. Given the tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade, there will be significant pressure to agree new arrangements which supersede the day one model within days or weeks. (NIO/NICS)

Up to 282 EU and EEA nations fishing vessels could enter illegally, or already be fishing in UK waters (Up to 129 vessels in English waters, 100 vessels in Scottish waters, 40 vessels in Welsh waters, 13 vessels in Northern Irish waters) on day one. This is likely to cause anger and frustration in the UK catching sector, which could lead to both clashes between fishing vessels and an increase in non-compliance in the domestic fleet. Competing demands on UK Government and DA maritime agencies and their assets could put enforcement and response capabilities at risk, especially in the event of concurrent or cumulative incidents, which are likely to include; illegal fishing, borders violations (smuggling and illegal migration), and any disorder or criminality arising as a result, e.g. violent disputes or blockading of ports. (Defra, HO, and the DAs in respect of fisheries protection).

There is an assumption that there will be no major change in adult social care on the day after EU Exit. The adult social care market is already fragile due to declining financial viability of providers. An increase in inflation following EU exit would significantly impact adult social care providers due to increasing staff and supply costs, and may lead to provider failure, with smaller providers impacted within 2-3 months and larger providers 4-6 months after exit. There are also possible concurrent localised risks: transport or staff disruption, severe winter weather or flu that could exacerbate the existing market fragility, and that cumulatively could stretch resources of providers and LAs. Intelligence will continue to be gathered to forewarn of/prepare for any impacts on the sector including closure of services and handing back of contracts which are not part of normal market function. In addition, we will look at the status of preparations in four local authorities, which are identified as priority concerns, by mid-August. (DHSC)

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Post by gmc »

The tories still doing their bit to aid the case for scottish independence.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-st ... -1-6265357

The english court ruled that the prorogation case was non- justicable. Justiciable is when the court can make a judgement on a dispute in the courtroom and make a ruling. A non-justiciable is when the court can't hear the case or make any ruling perhaps due to political reason. They didn't say it was lawful they said they could not rule on the issue.

Scots law is different from english law. Parliament is the sovereign power not the prime minister who is supposedly primus inter pares, not an elected president.

"This was an egregious case of a clear failure to comply with generally accepted standards of behaviour of public authorities," the Court of Session's ruling said on Wednesday morning.

"It was to be inferred that the principal reasons for the prorogation were to prevent or impede Parliament holding the executive to account and legislating with regard to Brexit, and to allow the executive to pursue a policy of a no-deal Brexit without further Parliamentary interference."

It added: "The prime minister's advice to HM the Queen and the prorogation which followed thereon was unlawful and is thus null and of no effect."

Responding to the ruling, Scottish National Party MP Joanna Cherry QC, who led the legal case, said: "Today's ruling of the highest court in Scotland that Boris Johnson's plans to shut down the UK Parliament ahead of Brexit are unlawful and unconstitutional is a huge victory and a vindication of our case. "

https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-j ... ?r=US&IR=T
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Post by spot »

Today's Brexit highlight - Boris just chickened out of a public appearance with the Luxembourg Prime Minister, and got savaged in his absence. I suspect it will happen every time he's seen in public from now on.

That was extraordinary. Boris Johnson, the British prime minister, has just been humiliated by the leader of the tiniest country in the European Union.

We were expecting a joint, open-air press conference but, with a large crowd of anti-Brexit campaigners threatening to drown out Johnson, it was announced that the British PM was not going to take part (presumably because of the demonstration, although that has not officially been confirmed yet). Normally in these circumstances the polite thing to do is to re-arrange. But instead Xavier Bettel, the prime minister of Luxembourg, just went ahead anyway, effectively “empty chairing” his guest. At one point he even gestured at the space where Johnson was supposed to be.

And then Xavier just let rip. People often wonder what EU leaders say or think about Johnson in private. Well, now we know. The leave campaign was a pack of lies, Johnson’s talk of progress in the Brexit talk is unfounded, the UK still has not come up with any ideas about an alternative to the backstop. On and on he went, with particular emphasis on the point that the UK, not the EU, was to blame for the crisis. It was a “nightmare” for EU citizens, said Bettel. At several points he was loudly applauded by the protesters, because they felt he was articulating their anger.

Yesterday Johnson depicted himself as the Incredible Hulk. As the Telegraph’s Michael Deacon suggests, the reality could not be more different.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... atest-news

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The lib dems are also saying they would reject a request for a second scottish referendum even if pro-independence parties were to win a majority of seats in Scotland, which by the way they already have. Jo swinson is in a scottsah seat there is every possibilty she will lose it at the next election. I used to vote libdem but not any more since the coalition with the tories and like most scots I remember what they did while in coalition with labour in the scottish parliament - it's ptoportional reperensation that has let them have any seats at all in holyrood. At their peak they had 11 of the scottish seats in westmionster now they have 4. Fair tro say they are on a shhogly peg and I would not be surprised if this kills them off completely.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/17904 ... -indyref2/
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Post by gmc »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49663001

Bigger issue is perhaps which legal system will take presedence. I can't see it being anything other than the english one and the english courts said the prorogation was not juticable i.e. they can't rule on whether it was illegal or not.
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We'll find out tomorrow. I think the Supreme Court will consider the position taken by all four courts which have adjudicated so far - I think I have that count right. I can't see it weighting the English case more heavily than that of the Scottish courts and it will bear the different legal systems in mind as it comes to its position.
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Post by magentaflame »

I'm beginning to believe that this whole mess has come from the politicians and government being extremely detached from the rest of the populace. It's shameful really . Makes you wonder who's pulling the strings.
The 'radical' left just wants everyone to have food, shelter, healthcare, education and a living wage. Man that's radical!....ooooohhhh Scary!
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Post by FourPart »

It was overruled in the London High Court just a few hours later, ruling that it was Legal.
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Post by spot »

FourPart;1525236 wrote: It was overruled in the London High Court just a few hours later, ruling that it was Legal.


Until the Supreme Court makes its announcement tomorrow the whole question is undecided. That's what appeals are for.
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Post by spot »

Xavier Bettel is the hero of the year.

Start at 1:33:00, just after Boris walks out on him without giving the press conference, to the end. This is unmissable.



Here is a transcript up to the press questions.

"I wanted to thank Mr Johnson, who was here today, for the exchange that we had. For me it was important to listen to Prime Minister Johnson. To listen to concrete proposals to avoid a no-deal Brexit. For Luxembourg, our position in regards to a deal has always been very clear: the first priority in any withdrawal agreement or declaration on the future relationship is the preservation of the single market. Second, we need a deal that protects the Good Friday Agreement and avoids a hard border on the Irish border at all costs.

The only solution that is currently on the table that meets all these criteria is the withdrawal agreement we agreed on in November last year, with the negotiator Michel Barnier, and whose got support by all the 27 members and also by the European Parliament.

I know that the UK government is unhappy with the withdrawal agreement as it stands. That's why I thought that it was important to speak with Prime Minister Johnson to get proposals. We need more than just words. We need a legally operable text to work on as soon as possible, if we want to meet the October deadline. I have never minced my words when asked about another extension, so let me be very clear once again: An extension is only an option if it serves a purpose. We will not grant another extension just for the sake of granting another extension.

Historically, the UK has always been an important ally and a strategic partner of my country - but most importantly, a close friends. The ties that link our people is are strong, and that will not change with Brexit. But our people need to know what is going to happen to them in six weeks' time: they need clarity, they need certainty, and they need stability. You can't hold a future hostage for party political gains.

So now it's on Mr Johnson. He holds the future of all UK citizens, and every EU citizen living in the UK, in his hands. It's his responsibility. Your people, our people, count on you. But the clock is ticking. Use your time wisely."

Once the press questions start it gets brutal.
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Post by gmc »

The sun version (spin) of the same events is interesting



Boris Johnson ’empty chaired’ by EU boss who refused to stop anti-Brexit protesters targeting PM

In a non police state you have the right to protest do you not? The protetstors were in the main british.

This is being spin as a PM of a two bit nation humiliating the british prime minister. They very seldom mention the backstop was theresa may's idea and boris is just noit making any new suggestions.

The unionists in scotland are beginning to panic

https://www.thenational.scot/news/17907 ... ority-bid/

Maybe they should do that for a second eu referendum.
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Post by gmc »

Bit more on the court case a. This is an SNP MP one of those who brought the court action.



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Post by spot »

There we are, we now have the Supreme Court verdict, unanimous by all eleven judges. Prorogation in the given circumstances was unlawful, of no effect, void, cancelled.

Parliament will sit tomorrow at 11.30am.

Prime Minister's Questions has been cancelled. We can expect to see MPs take control of the order paper again.

******* ********, the current Downing Street policy designer and a cross between Baldrick and Scaramanga, would (I'm guessing) try to prorogue a second time except the court would stamp it back down within hours.

He may instead offer a general election to the House a second time, as an alternative delay, except the house would reject it again.

I can't see Boris honorably falling on his sword.

I'd quite like to see a replacement unified government under Kenneth Clarke getting an extension and then calling an immediate transferable vote referendum with three options: cancel Brexit, agree Theresa May's negotiated terms or leave with no deal. That would involve a No Confidence motion.
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Post by gmc »

Unbelieveable

https://www.thenational.scot/news/17924 ... s-special/

"“Ian is the leader of the third biggest group at Westminster. And today of all days, when SNP MPs have been so central to the UK-wide story, it just seems ridiculous to omit us.

“When you consider the other guests on the BBC One Special – who are somehow seen as more appropriate than the Westminster leader of the SNP – it reflects very badly on their priorities and reveals an editorial narrowmindedness of the BBC bosses in London.”

Interviewed by Neil on the show, LibDem MP Umunna said his party were “the biggest and strongest Remain party”.

This went unchallenged, despite the LibDems having just 18 MPs to the SNP’s 35, and a lower membership total. "

I happened to be in a position to watch this live. The contrast between the bbc, cnn snd sky news coverage was really noticeable. Even as they were showing the snp contingent johanna cherry and ian blackfird outside the courtroom the bbc didn'tshow them at all. It's scots law that has been the main driver in this the bias of the bbc is getting against the snp more and more noticeable and to to ignore the third largest partyt and second largest anti brexit party completely is inexcusable.
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Post by Betty Boop »

I'm utterly flabbergasted and utterly ashamed to be British. Parliament is embarrassing. I've been disgusted watching Gove and Boris today, what utter arrogant idiots.
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Post by gmc »

Boris is truly beyond the pale.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ver-brexit

For the non british reading this Jo cox was murdered by a far right brexit supporter.
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Post by gmc »

SNP MP



I'm depressed having watched this
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Post by spot »

spot;1525047 wrote: The government complied with parliament last night and released the full text of Yellowhammer


I found the redacted text, if anyone would like it.



15. Facing EU tariffs makes petrol exports to the EU uncompetitive. Industry had plans to mitigate the impact on refinery margins and profitability but UK Government policy to set petrol import tariffs at 0% inadvertently undermines these plans. This leads to significant financial losses and announcement of two refinery closures (and transition to import terminals) and direct job losses (about 2000). Resulting strike action at refineries would lead to disruptions to fuel availability for 1-2 weeks in the regions directly supplied by the refineries.




In other words, fill your tank before November.
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https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-st ... -1-6298592

The Queen will be forced to sack her prime minister if he does not seek an extension to Article 50, Dominic Grieve has claimed.

Come to think of it I haven't seen any other media pointing out the PM ignores the court ruling at his peril.
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Post by Bryn Mawr »

gmc;1525725 wrote: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-st ... -1-6298592

The Queen will be forced to sack her prime minister if he does not seek an extension to Article 50, Dominic Grieve has claimed.

Come to think of it I haven't seen any other media pointing out the PM ignores the court ruling at his peril.


To be fair, the BBC did run a piece saying he way liable to jail if he refused.
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Post by gmc »

I'm becoming increasingly disenchanted with the bbc. Reports on the tory conference lack any semblamnce of impartiality, they are going to take on 20,00 more police how comeno interviewer points out that theresa may got rid of 20,000 and told the police federation that didn't know what they are talking about when they said it would lead to an increase in crime. money spent on housing and infrastructure why not in the preb=vious ten yen years what have they been doing. I can';t believe ant=yone with half a brain can still vote tory.
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So, we finally get to see the Boris proposal that he gone to the EU.

He's brought in a customs border between Northern Ireland and mainland Britain.

That was the one line in the sand that the Unionists would not cross. Lord knows what bribe he used on the DUP.



One interesting thing is there has always been, from the beginning, [an assertion that there will be] no new border down the Irish Sea.

Then you look at this document and see it may not be division, but there will be significantly more checks on goods moving between Great Britain and Northern Ireland within the United Kingdom.

At the moment there are checks on, for example, live animals moving from Britain to Northern Ireland, but now there would be checks on pretty much everything.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-poli ... s-49883135

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Post by Bryn Mawr »

spot;1525828 wrote: So, we finally get to see the Boris proposal that he gone to the EU.

He's brought in a customs border between Northern Ireland and mainland Britain.

That was the one line in the sand that the Unionists would not cross. Lord knows what bribe he used on the DUP.


Are we sure that they’ve agreed to it?

Is this a proposal intended to show that he has an alternative but, sadly, others are so intractable as to bring it down?

He’s been saying for so long that he has a cunning plan that he has to produce something - even if it has no chance of success.
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Bryn Mawr;1525831 wrote: Are we sure that they’ve agreed to it?Nobody at all has agreed to it except Boris and his staff in Downing Street, and their reason for it is still unknown.

The EU hasn't agreed to it, the Republic hasn't agreed to it, the DUP hasn't, Sinn Fein definitely hasn't and Parliament hasn't. I think every one of those groups will say no, and every one of them has a veto.
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Post by Bryn Mawr »

spot;1525832 wrote: Nobody at all has agreed to it except Boris and his staff in Downing Street, and their reason for it is still unknown.

The EU hasn't agreed to it, the Republic hasn't agreed to it, the DUP hasn't, Sinn Fein definitely hasn't and Parliament hasn't. I think every one of those groups will say no, and every one of them has a veto.


The DUP at least have seats in the cabinet and, therefore, presumably have had sight of the proposal and can have expressed an opinion in private.
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Bryn Mawr;1525842 wrote: The DUP at least have seats in the cabinet and, therefore, presumably have had sight of the proposal and can have expressed an opinion in private.


The last time they demanded a billion in Sterling, goodness knows what they insisted on this time. It's still not going to get accepted.
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Post by Bryn Mawr »

spot;1525856 wrote: The last time they demanded a billion in Sterling, goodness knows what they insisted on this time. It's still not going to get accepted.


A billion in euro? Soon be worth more :-)
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Post by spot »

I wonder whether an unwritten unacknowledged deniable deal exists with one of the European 27 countries for a veto to be applied to any extension application. That way Boris can stick to the letter of the Benn Act but still already know for certain that Halloween means Halloween.
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spot;1525952 wrote: I wonder whether an unwritten unacknowledged deniable deal exists with one of the European 27 countries for a veto to be applied to any extension application. That way Boris can stick to the letter of the Benn Act but still already know for certain that Halloween means Halloween.


Mumblings have surfaced...

Hungary's foreign minister Peter Szijjarto told the BBC there had been "rumours" his country may have been asked to veto another extension "but no such request has been received".

It came after a video posted to social media appeared to show Mr Szijjarto and Hungary's ambassador to Britain leaving the Cabinet Office building in Whitehall earlier this week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics- ... ting-story

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