New French President and Europe

Clodhopper · Post by **Clodhopper** » Sun May 06, 2012 4:07 pm

Mr Hollande will be the new President of France. he will be renegotiating the terms of the European austerity measures. It was hard enough to get them through the first time. Renegotiation will be a nightmare if possible at all.

The Greeks are apparently voting to throw out their austerity measures.

It seems to me Europe is about to blow apart on a huge scale. Can anyone point out to me hopeful signs I'm missing?

God save us from from France and Germany losing it with eachother bigtime.

gmc · Post by **gmc** » Mon May 07, 2012 2:34 am

That's not on the cards is it? Angeka merkel looks likely to lose the next election most and not likely to be to the right wing since they are the bastards that have got us in to this mess. It's the extreme right nationalist parties that are potentially dangerous The greeks have voted to throw out the austerity measures and good for them. The only ones that should worry are the bankers and big global corporations that are concerned democracy might actually work and they stop getting things s their own way. There is something wrong when former employees of morgan stanley get appointed to run a country over the elected representatives. This crisis was caused by banking institutions that so far have got away with it at the expense of democracy and ordinary people.

Clodhopper · Post by **Clodhopper** » Mon May 07, 2012 3:05 am

No argument here with the bankers being to blame. The noise is getting so loud that some of them are even starting to notice - I saw a banker on another board on a thread about teaching and he was trying to claim he earned every penny of his six figure salary - in contrast with lazy teachers. He got a lot of abuse for that one, even on a thread where teachers were getting a lot of grief.

I don't know if Greece can survive as a country with eg pensions and paid civil servants outside the Euro. It will be interesting to see, though I am VERY glad it's not us doing the experimenting.

The Germans really dislike bailing out other countries and only just agreed the present package. A renegotiation may well not get the result Pres Hollande wants - ie more German money. It seems to me that there is every chance Germany will stay on the right, especially if they think going left will involve giving more money to the Italians and Greeks.

If Greece breaks free and does fine (unlikely imo) then that means the end of the European Dream, as more countries break away rather than face austerity measures. We are then left with a Europe full of grievances and with many countries under extremist governments. Pretty scary scenario if you ask me.

What will happen to Greece outside the Euro? Will it be able to afford to pay its police, rubbish collectors and civil servants? If not, does the country actually starve?

Saint_ · Post by **Saint_** » Mon May 07, 2012 1:57 pm

Stop talking like that, you're scaring me.

Clodhopper · Post by **Clodhopper** » Mon May 07, 2012 4:59 pm

Well, I've been assured by a friend that what Hollande wants is merely a relaxation of the austerity measures in France. That may be the first pebble of a landslide, but I think the real issue is if the Germans think it will cost them. They aren't stupid and they might well baulk. However, Merkel has made non hostile noises, so we'll see.

If France does negotiate a relaxation, the Greeks will be close behind. This story has a long way to go yet.

Europe is in a shaky state at the moment, but it's probably not on the verge of total breakdown.

edit: If this seems confused, it's because it is, and because the situation also is!

gmc · Post by **gmc** » Tue May 08, 2012 1:27 am

I really can't see the eec breaking up now - the benefits have far outweighed the downside more likely is closer ties to russia as a counterbalance against the US and China. George orwell had it right I think with three major power blocs. If the UK come out we are really up **** creek. The problem ios not with the eu the problem is letting bankers have far too much say in how things are done.

Clodhopper · Post by **Clodhopper** » Tue May 08, 2012 3:49 am

We've got most of Southern Europe falling apart financially: Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal are all in trouble - saw today that the Spanish govt is bailing out one of its banks, which is apparently a policy U-turn - and France squeaking as the pips are squeezed.

I wonder if we won't end up with a two speed Europe, North and South, the way things are going.

I'm not sure that in Italy and Greece the problem isn't just bankers but also, and maybe even mostly, endemic corruption waaaay beyond anything we (rightly) get upset about.

gmc · Post by **gmc** » Tue May 08, 2012 7:25 am

We have also moved away from capitalist economies allowing the financial services tail to wag the agricultural/industrial dog and allowed too many monopolies and cartels to continue to exist.

Saint_ · Post by **Saint_** » Tue May 08, 2012 8:24 am

I saw an interesting report today that said that America did not do the "austerity" thing, they did bailouts and subsidizing and they are pulling out of the recession, while europe, which tightened all spending, is sinking into a double dip recession. Maybe the new French president is right, maybe, illogical as it may be, the way out of the recession was to spend money instead of saving it.

Clodhopper · Post by **Clodhopper** » Wed May 09, 2012 1:34 am

Your much larger and more politically integrated economy helps you ride out this sort of thing much better than the rather chaotic EU/Euro. I think bailouts and subsidies work up to a point, but done to Italy and Greece? I suspect they may have been well past that point. Here in the UK, a friend of mine just lost his job as a librarian. Now has to reapply for a part time post and look for some way to pay his rent. However I did see a report yesterday saying business confidence appears to be improving...maybe we are starting to turn the corner...?

One thing that has been noticeable amongst my friends is that those who used to habitually run with big credit card debts have been steadily reducing their level of indebtedness over the last couple of years. This appears to run against the National trend where the only stuff I can see suggests personal indebtedness is actually increasing.

I don't know what to make of it all. I had a pretty good idea this was going to be a difficult time but really all one can do is sit here and watch what happens next, especially between France and Germany.

Who knows where we'll end up? Certainly not me.

gmc · Post by **gmc** » Wed May 09, 2012 2:07 am

Saint_;1393230 wrote: I saw an interesting report today that said that America did not do the "austerity" thing, they did bailouts and subsidizing and they are pulling out of the recession, while europe, which tightened all spending, is sinking into a double dip recession. Maybe the new French president is right, maybe, illogical as it may be, the way out of the recession was to spend money instead of saving it.

It's an old argument. what got the worlsd out the recession in the thirties was spending by government if you look at the new deal policies of the thirties in modern parlance they would be seen as socialist yet the benefits are felt down to the present day. You can't leave it all in the hands of private industry some things are too important to trust them with. It's also an old argument about what the function of government is - to serve the people or the interests of just a few and who gets to decide - ultimately it's always the people one way or another.

Clodhopper · Post by **Clodhopper** » Wed May 09, 2012 3:33 am

I've seen a counterargument which says that while the New Deal policies alleviated some of the worst of the pain, they were actually running out of money and it was WW2 which pulled the US economy out of recession. (To be exact, British gold paying for armaments.) The infrastructure projects of the New Deal then helped to accelerate economic development, but did not, in themselves, turn the economy round.

Mind you, before anyone gets too sniffy, that money and more came back to Europe with the Marshall Plan. Which was one of the greatest acts of Foreign Policy by any nation ever, in my view.

gmc · Post by **gmc** » Thu May 10, 2012 12:46 am

Clodhopper;1393290 wrote: I've seen a counterargument which says that while the New Deal policies alleviated some of the worst of the pain, they were actually running out of money and it was WW2 which pulled the US economy out of recession. (To be exact, British gold paying for armaments.) The infrastructure projects of the New Deal then helped to accelerate economic development, but did not, in themselves, turn the economy round.

Mind you, before anyone gets too sniffy, that money and more came back to Europe with the Marshall Plan. Which was one of the greatest acts of Foreign Policy by any nation ever, in my view.

So have I as it happens, the standpoint of whoever puts that argument is rather influenced by what side of the political spectrum they are on. There is also the argument about whether the new deal was socialist or fascist since both Mussolini and Hitler did the same thing, certainly the comparison was made at the time and the policies were seen as fascist rather than communist or socialist. Perhaps the point is putting people in boxes with labels is not a good approach being too simplistic. It's ironic the US worries so much about the threat from the left they completely miss that of the right.

Clodhopper · Post by **Clodhopper** » Tue May 15, 2012 4:20 am

I would argue that it is becoming clear that both views have their political axes to grind and the truth probably involves elements of both. It may be that neither War nor New Deal would have been sufficient on their own...

Clodhopper · Post by **Clodhopper** » Tue May 15, 2012 5:28 am

So Hollande is sworn in and it is clear he DOES want to renegotiate. I really don't know if Merkel can deliver any compromise - I've been seeing stuff suggesting most Germans don't really know how vast a sum they are already giving to Europe and if they do cotton on there'll be real trouble. Watch this space, folks. Things could get interesting.

gmc · Post by **gmc** » Thu May 17, 2012 3:50 am

Clodhopper;1393639 wrote: So Hollande is sworn in and it is clear he DOES want to renegotiate. I really don't know if Merkel can deliver any compromise - I've been seeing stuff suggesting most Germans don't really know how vast a sum they are already giving to Europe and if they do cotton on there'll be real trouble. Watch this space, folks. Things could get interesting.

I don't think merkel will last beyond the next election, france has swung left be interesting to see if germany does.

Clodhopper · Post by **Clodhopper** » Thu May 17, 2012 7:15 pm

I don't think merkel will last beyond the next election, france has swung left be interesting to see if germany does.

I dunno...

The countries moving left seem to be countries wanting to spend more. I'm not sure the Germans will feel the same way given it's their money the French (and Greeks and Italians and Spanish and...) want to spend. If Merkel gets tough and says no, it might play quite well with the electorate. Not certain about any of this, of course.