The Dow Jones Industrial Average

Post by **spot** » Sun Oct 12, 2008 11:49 am

Today's Sunday and the Dow stands at 8451.

Where will it be at the end of the week?

Up or down?

By how much?

Spot's prediction: 7100.

flopstock · Post by **flopstock** » Sun Oct 12, 2008 12:22 pm

I'm thinking i'll be getting back in at the end of the month... suppose i should wait longer?

Post by **spot** » Sun Oct 12, 2008 12:37 pm

flopstock;1017615 wrote: I'm thinking i'll be getting back in at the end of the month... suppose i should wait longer?

I said in September that I thought it would bottom out around 4000 by next May. It was at 11500 then, it's dropped 3000 in the two weeks since.

Galbally · Post by **Galbally** » Sun Oct 12, 2008 1:23 pm

I think trading will be suspended this week, across stock exchanges to give governments time to nationalize the banks, which is what they are going to have to do and also to give a bit of breathing space from the panic, as thats what we are in now. If they are not suspended then I think anywhere between 6500 and 7300 for the dow, god knows for the FTSE. Which is apocalyptic sounding, but thats the way it is right now, full blown panic.

flopstock · Post by **flopstock** » Sun Oct 12, 2008 1:26 pm

spot;1017632 wrote: I said in September that I thought it would bottom out around 4000 by next May. It was at 11500 then, it's dropped 3000 in the two weeks since.

Maybe I'll buy jelly beans instead...

chonsigirl · Post by **chonsigirl** » Sun Oct 12, 2008 1:49 pm

I am thinking about 7000-along Dr. G.'s comments, I was surprised trading was not suspended at some point this week. If the downward trend continues, I think they will call a time out for a day or two.

Lon · Post by **Lon** » Sun Oct 12, 2008 1:54 pm

There will be some economic news early in the week that will impact the DOW. I anticipate considerable movement in the DOW throughout the week and ending Friday the 17th in a much different position than it ended on October 10th. Emotions of investors will run rampant and drive the market to new levels. Consumers will still buy their lattes and attend the opening of the new films. HD Giant Screen TV's will continue to be purchased with no money down, no interest, and no payments until July 2009. General Motors and Chrysler may just merge and go to work on a new model to be called the WOD (that's DOW backwards).

Post by **spot** » Sun Oct 12, 2008 2:08 pm

Lon;1017757 wrote: There will be some economic news early in the week that will impact the DOW. I anticipate considerable movement in the DOW throughout the week and ending Friday the 17th in a much different position than it ended on October 10th. Emotions of investors will run rampant and drive the market to new levels. Consumers will still buy their lattes and attend the opening of the new films. HD Giant Screen TV's will continue to be purchased with no money down, no interest, and no payments until July 2009. General Motors and Chrysler may just merge and go to work on a new model to be called the WOD (that's DOW backwards).

You did that very well Lon - you managed not to say or imply whether this movement's up or down!

You should be on television!

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Sun Oct 12, 2008 5:41 pm

This week:

24% fall in shares -- Japan

Soth Korea -- shares up

Australian Dollar plummets 20%

Indonesia -- closed their stock Exchange.

Britain's partial bank nationalisation plan is slowly gaining momentum, among the world's finance ministers, with Hank Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, potentially seeing it as the next step for America after his own $700 billion toxic debt bail-out.

wildhorses · Post by **wildhorses** » Sun Oct 12, 2008 7:34 pm

I think it will go up and down during the week, but by Friday it will not be very much different from what it is now. I think some people got panicky and sold unecessarily. It will smooth out by the end of the week. Just my 2 cents worth. :-6

Post by **spot** » Sun Oct 12, 2008 11:29 pm

Is there nobody out there looking for a rise to, say, a modest 9500? 10000?

wildhorses · Post by **wildhorses** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 12:00 am

spot;1018177 wrote: Is there nobody out there looking for a rise to, say, a modest 9500? 10000?

Maybe after a few weeks...but not this week. I really think that people are not over the panic yet and they will wait to see what happens. If the market starts to move in a more lateral fashion, then people might feel that it hit bottom already.

Post by **spot** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 12:09 am

The London exchange opened quietly upward, I think we're being polite and letting the events of the weekend brew for a day. There's no panic, which is better than the weekend newspapers discussed.

Galbally · Post by **Galbally** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 2:25 am

spot;1018184 wrote: The London exchange opened quietly upward, I think we're being polite and letting the events of the weekend brew for a day. There's no panic, which is better than the weekend newspapers discussed.

Yes, it seems to be the Eurozone adopting the British model to back up all European banks, which seems to be a welcome devleopment to the market (though as a taxpayer I will be wanting a quid pro quo from these banking scumbags). That seems to have made the market happy this morning, but given how febrile these guys are right now we will have to see what happens.

Post by **spot** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 2:30 am

The UK undoubtedly has a quid pro quo - those bank shares will sell for a small fortune in five years compared to the pittance we just paid for them.

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 3:16 am

Galbally;1018260 wrote: Yes, it seems to be the Eurozone adopting the British model to back up all European banks,

Looks like Gordon Brown may clawing some votes back. He looks strong from where i'm sitting.

It even looks like Bush is turning to him for advice :wah::wah::wah:

Galbally · Post by **Galbally** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 3:32 am

oscar;1018307 wrote: Looks like Gordon Brown may clawing some votes back. He looks strong from where i'm sitting.

It even looks like Bush is turning to him for advice :wah::wah::wah:

Yes, he does seem to have been good in this crisis and the plan the UK has come up with is a good one, which is why the rest of us in Europe are going to adopt something very similar. Of course, he was chancellor for 10 years and its obvious that a lot of very unwise things were done during his tenure, particularly in allowing the City to basically do whatever it wanted, and fuelling the housing boom when it should have been deflated using interest rates or by curbing bank lending into the market. There were plenty of commentators warning about adopting the American model of capitalism, particularly Will Hutton, and in hindsight they were entirely correct, but of course hindsight is a wonderful thing, but foresight is even better.

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 4:01 am

Galbally;1018319 wrote: Yes, he does seem to have been good in this crisis and the plan the UK has come up with is a good one, which is why the rest of us in Europe are going to adopt something very similar. Of course, he was chancellor for 10 years and its obvious that a lot of very unwise things were done during his tenure, particularly in allowing the City to basically do whatever it wanted, and fuelling the housing boom when it should have been deflated using interest rates or by curbing bank lending into the market. There were plenty of commentators warning about adopting the American model of capitalism, particularly Will Hutton, and in hindsight they were entirely correct, but of course hindsight is a wonderful thing, but foresight is even better.

I'm wondering now if Brown was hampered by Blair during his time at the Exchequer.

He has not been in no 10 that long really and maybe he is just finding his feet and showing what he's really capable of.

I am very impressed at the strength he has shown over the crisis and with Iceland, he has shown he's not to be messed with.

I think he's earnt alot of respect right across Europe and America in the past week. They all seem to be queuing up to take his plan on board.

On another thread, i remember saying that if Obama got in, he is not experienced enough to deal with the economic crisis. I said that with Gordon Brown's experience as Chancellor of the Excheqer, Gordon Brown would end up ruling Obama on finance, not working with him.

If that stubborn Bush wants to take Brown's advice, Brown is on the way there.

gmc · Post by **gmc** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 5:14 am

Galbally;1018319 wrote: Yes, he does seem to have been good in this crisis and the plan the UK has come up with is a good one, which is why the rest of us in Europe are going to adopt something very similar. Of course, he was chancellor for 10 years and its obvious that a lot of very unwise things were done during his tenure, particularly in allowing the City to basically do whatever it wanted, and fuelling the housing boom when it should have been deflated using interest rates or by curbing bank lending into the market. There were plenty of commentators warning about adopting the American model of capitalism, particularly Will Hutton, and in hindsight they were entirely correct, but of course hindsight is a wonderful thing, but foresight is even better.

Much as I hate to admit it he does seem to be doing well. Saw him speaking he made the point that part of the problem is the regulation has been on a state by state basis the problem being some of the transactions are across international borders and the are going to have to think of some means of regulating the global economy to control supranational borrowing and investing.

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 6:11 am

gmc;1018391 wrote: Much as I hate to admit it he does seem to be doing well. Saw him speaking he made the point.

Take the shame, :yh_tong2:yh_tong2:yh_bigsmi