Certainly! The sequestration of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, especially from anthropogenic sources, is becoming increasingly vital as we look to combat climate change. Here are potential strategies for sequestration that don't contribute to ocean acidification and might even help mitigate it:
- Direct Air Capture (DAC):
- Involves machines that pull CO2 directly from ambient air and then store it or use it.
- It's purely a mechanical/chemical process and has no impact on the oceans.
- When combined with sequestration, it provides a net reduction in atmospheric CO2.
- Enhanced Weathering:
- Minerals like olivine can react with CO2 to form carbonates.
- This can be done on land, grinding up the minerals and spreading them on fields.
- If done appropriately, it can prevent the leaching of acids into oceans.
- Afforestation and Reforestation:
- Planting trees and restoring forests can absorb significant amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere.
- Additionally, sustainable forest management can be a carbon sink.
- Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS):
- Involves growing biomass, burning it to produce energy, and then capturing and storing the CO2 produced.
- The net effect can be a removal of CO2 from the atmosphere if sustainable practices are used.
- Soil Carbon Sequestration:
- Agricultural practices, like agroforestry, conservation tillage, and cover cropping, can increase the amount of carbon stored in soils.
- Healthy soils store more carbon and can also prevent soil erosion and runoff that might contribute to ocean acidification.
- Enhanced Coal Bed Methane Recovery:
- Involves pumping CO2 into unmineable coal seams, displacing methane (which can be used as energy), and sequestering CO2 in the process.
- Carbon Mineralization:
- Involves reacting CO2 with calcium or magnesium to form carbonates.
- These stable carbonates can be stored underground or used in construction.
- Carbon-negative Concrete:
- Some new concrete formulations absorb CO2 as they cure.
- This could become a sink for CO2 if widely adopted.
- Blue Carbon:
- Coastal ecosystems like mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrass meadows capture and store significant amounts of carbon.
- Protecting and restoring these ecosystems can serve as carbon sinks and provide resilience against rising sea levels.
- Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement:
- Directly addresses ocean acidification by adding alkaline substances to the ocean, increasing its capacity to absorb CO2.
- Care has to be taken to understand potential side effects.
- Seaweed Farming:
- Some macroalgae species grow rapidly and can sequester significant CO2.
- Harvesting and sinking the seaweed to deep oceanic depths can sequester the carbon for centuries to millennia.
- Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS):
- Capturing CO2 at the point of emission (like power plants) and then storing it underground in geological formations.
Let's begin with scalability. A reasonable order of magnitude for the required annual sequestration is 10 billion tonnes of carbon. That assumes 70% of nations achieve Net Zero at 2050 and that 70% of their energy use is renewable. If you feel my order of magnitude is incorrect we can delve for a better figure.
Your estimate of 10 billion tonnes (10 Gt) of carbon (equivalent to around 36.7 Gt CO2) as an annual sequestration target by 2050 under the assumptions you provided is a fair starting point, given the current and projected anthropogenic emissions. It's also consistent with many high-emission scenarios that scientists and policymakers use for planning. Still, it's worth noting that exact numbers can vary based on various factors like economic growth, adoption rates of green technologies, unforeseen technological breakthroughs, and more.
Let's evaluate the scalability of the methods listed:
- Direct Air Capture (DAC):
- Current facilities can capture thousands of tonnes per year, but scaling to billions would require significant infrastructure and energy. It's feasible with enough investment and the right energy sources, but it's a significant challenge.
- Enhanced Weathering:
- Large-scale mining and distribution of minerals would be required. While technically possible, the environmental impact and energy required for such operations would be significant.
- Afforestation and Reforestation:
- One mature tree can absorb about 22 kg of CO2 per year. Thus, billions of trees would be needed, requiring vast land areas. It's one of the more feasible options, but land competition with agriculture and urbanization can be a challenge.
- BECCS:
- Current BECCS projects operate on the scale of millions of tonnes annually. Scaling to billions is challenging due to land and water needs for biomass cultivation and potential competition with food production.
- Soil Carbon Sequestration:
- Potential to sequester billions of tonnes but requires global adoption of sustainable farming practices and land management.
- Enhanced Coal Bed Methane Recovery:
- Limited scalability because it's dependent on the availability of suitable coal seams.
- Carbon Mineralization:
- The technology is still in early stages. Scalability is uncertain but has potential, especially if integrated with industries producing calcium or magnesium as byproducts.
- Carbon-negative Concrete:
- The construction industry is massive, and widespread adoption could sequester billions of tonnes, but this requires global shifts in industrial practices.
- Blue Carbon:
- Limited scalability compared to the 10 Gt target because the total area of these ecosystems is small compared to what would be needed.
- Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement:
- Scalability is uncertain and requires extensive research to ensure no unintended ecological consequences.
- Seaweed Farming:
- While seaweeds grow rapidly, achieving billions of tonnes of sequestration would require vast ocean areas and robust infrastructure for harvesting and sinking.
- CCS:
- Has been demonstrated at the scale of millions of tonnes. Achieving billions would require significant investment and infrastructure, but it's one of the more mature and scalable technologies available.
1. One of the problems with CCS is that Net Zero requires the sequestration of all anthropogenic carbon. CCS alone can't be applied to all emitters, many are unsuited and many are sited in countries which will not participate. 2. I don't believe there is a technological route to direct capture on the scale required but by all means extend the idea if you feel it might. Consider the same issue for weathering. 3. Reforestation and biomass both conflict with the equally essential need for wildlife extension to avoid biodiversity collapse, alongside farming demands.
Given the constraints and concerns you've mentioned:
- CCS's limitations:
- You're correct. Many emitters aren't suited for CCS, either due to technological, economic, or geopolitical reasons. While CCS can be applied to large point sources like power plants, it's challenging to implement for distributed sources such as vehicles, small-scale industries, and residential heating.
- Direct Air Capture and Enhanced Weathering:
- Direct Air Capture (DAC): While current technology might not be scalable to 10 Gt of carbon annually, advancements in technology and energy efficiency might make it more viable in the future. For instance, improvements in sorbent materials or integration with renewable energy sources could make the process more efficient. Still, achieving such scale would be monumental.
- Enhanced Weathering: The idea involves accelerating a natural process, but on the scale required, it would involve significant land disruption and energy. As with DAC, while theoretically possible, the scale needed presents major logistical challenges.
- Reforestation, Biomass, and Biodiversity:
- Afforestation and BECCS do present land-use challenges. The large-scale cultivation of biomass, especially if not managed sustainably, can reduce habitat availability, leading to biodiversity loss. Reforestation, if not done with ecological considerations, can also reduce biodiversity by creating monocultures or displacing native species.
- Urban Greening:
- Expanding green spaces in urban areas can sequester carbon and provide habitats without conflicting with natural ecosystems or agricultural lands.
- Regenerative Agriculture:
- This approach to farming enhances soil health, increasing its carbon storage capacity, and promoting biodiversity. By adopting these methods, we can produce food, sequester carbon, and support ecosystems simultaneously.
- Carbon Mineralization:
- While still in its early stages, if integrated with industries that produce calcium or magnesium as byproducts, there's potential for scalability.
- Carbon-negative Materials:
- Beyond just concrete, innovations in materials that absorb CO2 during their lifecycle can be explored. These can be used in construction, manufacturing, and other industries.
- Blue Carbon Enhancement:
- While the total area might be limited, protecting and expanding mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrass meadows can sequester carbon and support biodiversity.
- Technological Innovations:
- Investment in R&D can lead to breakthroughs in new methods or improve the scalability and efficiency of existing ones.
- Policy and Behavioral Change:
- Promoting policies that reduce emissions at the source, such as transitioning to renewable energy, increasing energy efficiency, and encouraging sustainable consumption can reduce the amount we need to sequester.
You mention urgency and indeed the deadline is 27 years from now. Advancements in technology and energy efficiency might make it more viable in the future but it is hard to imagine how current blue-skies research can give rise to industrial maturity at that scale in the time frame. If you were to plan a route to achieve this level of sequestration, consider that it needs to handle a half of all emissions while the other half of our current excess will be removed by renewables. It is clearly helpful if at least some anthropogenic output is sequestered on a rising basis between now and 2050 but the one essential is that it should be fully scaled by that date.
Meeting the 10 Gt carbon sequestration goal by 2050 is indeed an immense challenge, especially given the time constraints for implementing blue-sky research into mature, scalable industries. A robust plan should therefore focus on both scaling up current feasible technologies and fostering emergent ones that have a clear path to rapid deployment.
Here’s a broad roadmap:
- Maximize Deployment of Current Scalable Solutions:
- Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS): For all its limitations, it's one of the most mature technologies. Focus on industries and regions where it's most feasible and where there are large point sources of CO2.
- Carbon Mineralization: Increase R&D funding and create incentives for industries that produce relevant byproducts to integrate carbon mineralization processes.
- Urban Greening: Encourage cities globally to adopt aggressive tree-planting and greening campaigns. This not only sequesters carbon but also offers immediate local benefits, making it more politically palatable.
- Regenerative Agriculture: Promote and subsidize this on a global scale. It offers multiple benefits—increased yields, resilience against climate events, and carbon sequestration.
- Invest in R&D for High Potential Technologies:
- Even if they’re blue-sky now, some technologies might become feasible quicker than others. Prioritize those with clear benefits, fewer logistical hurdles, and potential for high carbon capture rates.
- Direct Air Capture (DAC): Even with its current limitations, it has the advantage of being deployable anywhere, decoupled from emission sources.
- Incentivize Private Sector Participation:
- Implement carbon pricing mechanisms (carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems). Make it economically favorable for industries to invest in carbon sequestration.
- Offer tax breaks or subsidies for companies that develop and deploy carbon capture technologies.
- Global Collaboration and Knowledge Sharing:
- Form international alliances to share R&D findings, best practices, and policy strategies. Some solutions might be more effective in specific regions and can be scaled up faster with global support.
- Integrate with Renewables:
- The switch to renewables should be pushed aggressively. Every unit of energy from renewables is one less that needs to be offset. Moreover, excess renewable energy during peak times can be channeled into energy-intensive sequestration processes.
- Policy and Education:
- Strengthen international agreements and local policies that promote sequestration and emission reductions.
- Run global education campaigns about the urgency and the available solutions to ensure public support and understanding.
- Infrastructure and Logistics:
- Beyond just the capture/storage technologies, we need to invest in the infrastructure to transport captured CO2 and store it, whether underground, in mineral form, or other means.
- Continuous Monitoring and Feedback:
- As technologies are deployed, continuous monitoring will be crucial. Adapt the approach based on which strategies are working best and scale those up further.
I have good statistics for CO2e emissions per year. I would like to begin tracking sequestration volume by year. Can you suggest reliable sources for that? There must be bodies tasked with collating and publishing the data.
Tracking carbon sequestration statistics can be a bit trickier than emissions since the industry and the data around it are newer and less standardized. However, various international organizations, research institutes, and governmental bodies do collect and publish data on carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and other related topics.
Here are some reputable sources where you might find relevant data:
- Global CCS Institute: They provide one of the most comprehensive databases on CCS projects worldwide, including detailed information on the status, capacity, and technology of each project.
- International Energy Agency (IEA): The IEA has extensive reports and datasets on energy and CO2 statistics, including some dedicated to carbon capture, utilization, and storage.
- U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL): While U.S.-focused, NETL conducts extensive research on CCS and releases regular reports on the topic.
- Carbon Capture & Storage Association (CCSA): This UK-based organization also provides data and insights on the development of CCS globally.
- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): They collect and publish data on various carbon mitigation methods, including sequestration, as part of their national reporting requirements.
- European Commission's Joint Research Centre: For information specific to Europe, their reports might be beneficial.
- Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) databases: Given the emerging importance of direct air capture and other CDR techniques, you might find databases and repositories dedicated to tracking these projects. These are typically managed by research institutions or collaborative efforts.
- Scientific Journals: Keep an eye on journals like "International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control" or "Carbon Management." Scientists often publish updated data and findings on CCS and other sequestration methods here.
- World Resources Institute (WRI): They provide extensive datasets and analyses on various environmental topics, including carbon capture and sequestration.
- Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO): For data related to carbon sequestration in forests and agriculture, FAO's Global Forest Resources Assessments and other publications might be of interest.
That sounds like a full time job for an intern.
It indeed can be! Monitoring and tracking carbon sequestration data across multiple platforms is a comprehensive task. Depending on the depth and specificity of the information you need, an intern or a dedicated researcher could spend significant time collecting, analyzing, and reporting on the data.
However, if you're looking for a more streamlined approach:
- Set Clear Objectives: Define what specific data points or metrics you are primarily interested in. Do you want global figures, specific regions, or specific types of sequestration (e.g., forestry vs. CCS)?
- Choose Primary Sources: Based on your objectives, identify one or two primary sources that are most relevant. For broad and updated global CCS statistics, the Global CCS Institute and IEA might be sufficient for most needs.
- Set a Schedule: Instead of continuous monitoring, you could decide on regular intervals (e.g., quarterly, biannually) to check and update your data.
- Use Automated Tools: Consider setting up alerts or RSS feeds for specific reports or publications from these sources. This way, you're notified of updates without having to manually check.
- Collaborate: If you're part of a larger organization or network, see if others are interested in the same data. Pooling resources or sharing the task can make it more manageable.
- Consider Outsourcing: Depending on the importance of this data for your work, it might be worth contracting a research firm or consultant specializing in carbon sequestration to provide regular updates or reports.
I will assume someone else is doing this already and publishing up to date releases on Github. I'll search there.
That's a reasonable assumption. GitHub and similar platforms are often used by researchers, non-profits, and other organizations to share datasets, tools, and reports with the public. Searching there could yield repositories where enthusiasts and experts alike collate and maintain updated information on carbon sequestration and related topics.
When searching on GitHub:
- Use Specific Keywords: Start with terms like "carbon sequestration data", "CCS dataset", "carbon capture statistics", etc.
- Check the Repository's Activity: Look for repositories that have been updated recently and have active contributors. This suggests that the data might be up-to-date.
- Verify the Source of Data: Ensure that the data in the repository comes from reputable sources. Often, the maintainers will mention where they sourced their data.
- Engage with the Maintainers: If you have questions or need clarifications, don't hesitate to open an issue or contact the repository's maintainers. The GitHub community is often very responsive.
- Fork and Follow: If you find a particularly useful repository, you can "fork" it to have your own copy and "star" or "watch" it to receive updates when new data or changes are pushed to the repository.
Thank you for helping me focus my attention on what seems a difficult conundrum. I'm sure we'll discuss this further.
You're welcome! The challenge of carbon sequestration and achieving net-zero emissions is indeed complex, but with dedicated focus, collaboration, and innovation, progress can be made. I'm here whenever you'd like to discuss further or explore any other topics. Best of luck with your endeavors, and feel free to reach out anytime!