Thoughts on the UK general election

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Tue May 30, 2017 11:48 am

What is the general consensus on the state of play in the election ?

To my mind Corbyn has become a born again politician, even his arguments are sounding convincing, his honesty is getting through, where before it looked like naivety.

May is looking like a conniving opportunist chancer.

Shame about Abbott.

gmc · Post by **gmc** » Tue May 30, 2017 1:52 pm

At least he had been consistent through the years.

Clodhopper · Post by **Clodhopper** » Tue May 30, 2017 3:23 pm

In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king.

I don't think Corbyn's ideas, insofar as I understand them, are even close to the best future for this country but they are better than a right wing led brexit. I think he offers solutions to long changed or irrelevant issues that might be some use here. At least he offers a plan of some sort rather than May's "Trusssssst in me" snake song.

We still don't have to brexit. We could choose not to and go back to the EU with a make it bloody work agenda.

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Wed May 31, 2017 5:28 am

I am afraid to say it, but the unthinkable may happen according to the experts.

Corbyn might pull it off, like the Trumpster, unless of course, it's a double bluff, encouraging the anti Labour vote not to take Theresa's victory for granted.

Clodhopper · Post by **Clodhopper** » Wed May 31, 2017 6:38 am

He's still a long way behind even if they ae right. I'm also very distrustful of polls after recent elections. They seems to be distinctly off most of the time nowadays and the pollsters haven't seemed to know why as far as I can tell. Until we get some evidence they are back on target I'll be taking them as possible indicators only - and they never seem to be wrong in the way I'd like them to be!

I think the biggest thing affecting the swing is not Corbyn, much, but May. I think she's coming across as evasive, she gives the impression she has very clear ideas about her plans but isn't telling because she knows we wouldn't vote for them. Every time someone tries to pin her down she retreats into generalities and bandies billions about. It's actually quite reminiscent of the Trump campaign in that way.

gmc · Post by **gmc** » Wed May 31, 2017 11:13 am

Leaders debate tonight might be interesting now that corbyn has decided to take part.

magentaflame · Post by **magentaflame** » Wed May 31, 2017 12:42 pm

Bruv;1509772 wrote: What is the general consensus on the state of play in the election ?

My thoughts?

Either way you're farked.

gmc · Post by **gmc** » Wed May 31, 2017 2:12 pm

magentaflame;1509793 wrote: [QUOTE=Bruv;1509772]What is the general consensus on the state of play in the election ?

My thoughts?

Either way you're farked.

Why do you think I am hoping the snp win all the seats in scotland. At least corbyn seems rational.

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Wed May 31, 2017 2:19 pm

gmc;1509799 wrote: Why do you think I am hoping the snp win all the seats in scotland. At least corbyn seems rational.

And strangely Tim Farron is looking good to me.

gmc · Post by **gmc** » Wed May 31, 2017 2:24 pm

:yh_rotfl:yh_rotfl

gmc · Post by **gmc** » Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:29 am

Bruv;1509802 wrote:

And strangely Tim Farron is looking good to me.

I've had it with the lib dems they should have never gone in to coalition with the tories when it was announced you could almost hear the sound of their core support banging their heads off the walls .

Clodhopper · Post by **Clodhopper** » Tue Jun 06, 2017 5:03 am

Just seen a report the Tory lead is down to a point. Again, polls have been unreliable in recent elections but the trend seems to suggest the lead is narrowing. I hope we can trust the polls at least for that!

I've had it with the lib dems they should have never gone in to coalition with the tories when it was announced you could almost hear the sound of their core support banging their heads off the walls

Yep, you said it was a terrible mistake at the time, iirc. I didn't have a problem with the Coalition. For me (and this is 20/20 hindsight) the mistake was not making tuition fees a red line issue like the EU. There were some achievements too: the minimum wage was Lib Dem, and a lot of the more recent development in and of renewables was down to Sir Edward Davey when he was Energy Minister.

Hey ho. We don't know what a left wing brexit looks like so it's still a jump off the cliff on the assurance Paradise not rocks await below. Frankly I thinks it's rocks but I got pushed. I think what they want to do is put all the means of production and supply under state control; how far they will be able to is another matter. Personally I don't really want that but if brexit goes really horribly wrong then it might be necessary to feed everyone. One of the things that nags at me most about our situation is our high levels of indebtedness even before we brexit. We get away with it because we have been very reliable payers but if we hammer our biggest trading links our ability to pay will suffer. If we have a recession on top of that which I think is very likely then our ability to pay suffers worse and credit dries up. It's no different to a credit card, just bigger scales. If we leave our children and grandchildren, poorer than we are, have to repay our debt now, plus the debts that we run up over brexit. If we need an IMF bailout then we will look a lot like Greece does now, I fear.

The best thing is not to do what the far right and the far left want us to do, not to do what Putin and Trump want us to do, not to do what the terrorists, murderers and racists want us to do which is leave and weaken the EU but stay and make it better. We still can.

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Tue Jun 06, 2017 5:52 am

I think what they want to do is put all the means of production and supply under state control

How did you jump to that conclusion ?

All their talking about is returning previously publicly owned utilities back into public hands

Clodhopper · Post by **Clodhopper** » Tue Jun 06, 2017 6:36 am

Bruv;1509960 wrote: How did you jump to that conclusion ?

All their talking about is returning previously publicly owned utilities back into public hands

You don't give the patient the whole course in one go... Shrug. I dunno if they are still true to their basic principles but if they are then they want control of the means of production and supply because their socialist system doesn't work even in principle unless you have that. Corbyn rebelled a lot to stay true to his basic principles so I suspect he still is true to them. Perhaps he has some modern version of the control of the means of production and supply but if so he hasn't told us yet.

We will:

Bring private rail companies back into public ownership as their franchises expire.

Regain control of energy supply networks through the alteration of operator license conditions, and transition to a publicly owned, decentralised energy system.

Replace our dysfunctional water system with a network of regional publicly-owned water companies.

Reverse the privatisation of Royal Mail at the earliest opportunity. from the Labour Party Manifesto 2017 Economy

So it's not just gas electricity and water even here.

By reforming the rules our companies operate under, we can make sure they stay focused on delivering shared wealth. Labour will amend company law so that directors owe a duty directly not only shareholders, but to employees, customers, the environment and the wider public, and we will consult on bringing forward appropriate legislation within this Parliament. from A New Deal for Business, Labour Party Manifesto 2017

Sounds good in principle. But I do wonder if it's a way of controlling the means of production? Not sure. But nothing I've seen here contradicts Corbyn and McDonnel's fundamental left wing socialism. It's not how I'd ideally like the future to go but I like the Johson/Banks/Dacre/Fox brexit even less. The Corbyn version of brexit at least has a system in place that might be some use if brexit turns out to be really economically devastating.

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Tue Jun 06, 2017 8:08 am

I would go along with his declared intentions, then worry about your fears if and when it arises.

I agree with him entirely up to now.

Why meet trouble halfway ?

Clodhopper · Post by **Clodhopper** » Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:02 pm

This idea I'm meeting trouble half way?

I'm not getting you, I think.

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Tue Jun 06, 2017 3:27 pm

Clodhopper;1509973 wrote: This idea I'm meeting trouble half way?

I'm not getting you, I think.

You seem to think Corbyn wants a communist state along the lines of the old Russia.

they want control of the means of production and supply because their socialist system doesn't work even in principle unless you have that.

The way I see it is that he wants to reclaim all the previously publicly owned utilities that had been funded or bought into public hands over the years. Many are now in European hands with profits exiting the country, my water companies are both French owned.

His ideology is that utilities should be run as non profit making for the good of the country, the opposite of the Tories that think even health care should be profitable.

It makes sense to me.

FourPart · Post by **FourPart** » Tue Jun 06, 2017 11:16 pm

I'm an outright Corbynite, but I had qualms about voting Labour because of the inner Party canker of "Blue Labour" - the die-hard Blairites that make up the majority of the PLP that has always sought to overthrow him as being 'unelectable', despite his having 2 successive record mandates of the Party Membership. It is because of my support of Jeremy that I had 2nd thoughts about voting Labour because the most likely candidate of my ward was one who had openly opposed him & promoted "Blue Labour", and I did not want to give my vote to someone who would simply further the inner problems. However, the candidate this time is a supporter of Jeremy, so I am now morally comfortable in giving him my vote.

Despite my being an outright Socialist, I never really believed that Labour would have a chance & thought that May knew exactly what she was doing, knowing full well that calling a General Election would increase her narrow majority. However, I have been amazed at the way Labour have shot up the polls in leaps & bounds - helped along the way by the flip-flopping of the Tory Manifesto. Mind you, there are times I sometimes wonder if the Tories are actually trying to lose the Election, as they don't want to be held to account for their overall failure, so that they can then pass the blame onto Labour & their handling of Brexit, so that at the next Election they might have additional support. Why else would they add extremely unpopular things in their manifesto, such as the reintroduction of fox hunting, lifting the ban on the ivory trade, and supporting the Naylor Report, which is a detailed plan on how to sell off the NHS as quickly as possible, including Government subsidies in order to facilitate a 2 for 1 (buy one get one free) deal?

I have placed 2 Â£5 bets on Ladbrokes. One for Labour to have more votes, and the other for them to have an outright majority. Unfortunately, the odds are still Odds On for a Conservative victory, but even they have dropped from 1/33 to 2/9 & the 'unelectable' Jeremy Corbyn is looking more & more likely to be the next Prime Minister.

Clodhopper · Post by **Clodhopper** » Wed Jun 07, 2017 2:09 am

I'm in favour of state ownership of utilities and power, especially under brexit conditions. In fact, exactly because of desperate situations like brexit, or war. Not so sure about the railways - the old BR was no great shakes as I recall. Also pretty keen on the NHS which the tories want rid of more and more openly. Shrug. It's all pretty conjectural: everything depends on the negotiations, if we are stupid enough to leave. I think a hard brexit is the most likely result at present (this opinion subject to change at short notice) and will mean economic devastation. State ownership of the basics might help with mitigating the worst effects of that.

I fear that brexit will mean the end of the NHS anyway. Brexit + tories = NHS certain death. Brexit + Corbyn = maybe something will survive. I've no faith in either set to do well in the negotiations but at least Corbyn means the alt right backers of brexit won't get the free rein they are after (people like Banks, Dacre, Murdoch and some far right US groups which appear to have been helping...).

Stopping brexit is top priority (unlikely I grant you, but so much the best result that I won't stop fighting for it). Getting rid of bastards like Johnson, Fox and Davis is at least a step in the right direction.

I'm not sure what Corbyn stands for. I'm sure he'd deny any idea he wants to recreate the old USSR here. I'm guessing he's got a vision of a socialist paradise very unlike anything Stalinist. It's just I don't believe in Utopias and think attempts to create them end up with gulags. Anyway, as I say, I'm not sure how important it is which of them stands in the way of the tsunami. They'll be swept away whoever they are. Perhaps I should add that I don't know whether brexit will be like a tsunami, though I think if we hard brexit it might be, or like a slowly rising tide over 5 years or more which just gradually drowns us. If it's the latter we should be able gradually to turn things round and have the tide recede at least a bit. But all we are likely to be doing is making up ground we have lost. For what?

edit: Putting together a couple of articles I just read on the BBC site about the election, they start by saying the election is even more unpredictable than usual because of brexit and the terror threat but that the expectation overall in the parties themselves is that the conservatives are going to get a decent majority. It seems there is a clue to this in where the leaders have been campaigning: May has spent a lot of time in labour held seats the tories are targeting and also in seats with a strong ukip vote. The conclusion is she's trying to win seats. Corbyn has spent a lot more time in labour seats by comparison with the conclusion he's trying not to lose seats, if any strategy can be discerned. Corbyn's only hope was felt to be if he could get the young vote out in unprecedented numbers. He might, imo. The Lib Dems are targeting Remain voting seats but are expected to be buried.

We'll see tomorrow.

gmc · Post by **gmc** » Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:38 am

It's ironic that the labour manifesto is utting economic policies more in line with capitalism than the tories wqho are fascist in all but name. or maybe not after labour was originally a social democratic party and has never really gone down the socialist paradise route and where do you get the idea that corbyn does?

Clodhopper · Post by **Clodhopper** » Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:34 am

...his political career?

G#Gill · Post by **G#Gill** » Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:40 am

I think too much notice and credit has been given to the 'young' vote, and people (particularly the Government and May) seem to have discounted the very powerful GREY vote !

I would suggest that hundreds of thousands of pensioners are literally 'fed up' with being picked on by the Government, being used to gain finance to the dwindling coffers, in order to bolster up NHS, security services etc.

Loosing much needed help with their pensions so they can at least exist. Yes we all know that people are living longer, so therefore arrangements must be made to allow for this. As it is, at the moment, the government seem hell bent on causing the premature death of thousands of savable pensioners by reducing funds that go part way to allowing a reasonable existence that has been paid for during the pensioners' working life ! Surely there is a law against such theft ?

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:18 am

I think we have been stitched up big time by the sheer continued arrogance of the Tory party and especially their leadership.

First Cameron rolled the dice thinking the result was a foregone conclusion, and failed, forcing May into the driving seat......as he walked away with his tail between his legs.

May for no real reason other than to opportunistically take advantage of the 'loony left' and it's unpopular leader, called a snap election.......and we end up where we are now.

Going into Brexit talks, after a debatable campaign based on Cameron's ego trip forced us into a decision, and then May's ego trip as she hoped to be the leader that crushed Corbyn and ensured a further term in government.

Bad judgment followed by yet more bad judgment......and they are negotiating our brexit deal ?

God help us all.

Clodhopper · Post by **Clodhopper** » Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:27 am

Bruv;1510038 wrote: I think we have been stitched up big time by the sheer continued arrogance of the Tory party and especially their leadership.

First Cameron rolled the dice thinking the result was a foregone conclusion, and failed, forcing May into the driving seat......as he walked away with his tail between his legs.

May for no real reason other than to opportunistically take advantage of the 'loony left' and it's unpopular leader, called a snap election.......and we end up where we are now.

Going into Brexit talks, after a debatable campaign based on Cameron's ego trip forced us into a decision, and then May's ego trip as she hoped to be the leader that crushed Corbyn and ensured a further term in government.

Bad judgment followed by yet more bad judgment......and they are negotiating our brexit deal ?

God help us all.

The UK is an omnishambles at present. When are we even going to be in a position to start negotiations? They are supposed to start in a week or so and the deadline is fixed but there's talk of an October election There is less and less time for these complex and difficult negotiations if we want anything other than no deal. March 2019 we are out, unless we have the sense to drop the whole issue.