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how do you see mankind ever getting to live on other planets?

SlipStream;631904 wrote: how do you see mankind ever getting to live on other planets?
Not gonna happen.

I already live on my own planet.

sunny104;631911 wrote: I already live on my own planet.
Wake up Sunny you're dreaming again. You don't have your own planet!!!:D

YZGI;631914 wrote: Wake up Sunny you're dreaming again. You don't have your own planet!!!:D


I'm not sleeping, I'm just hungover!

sunny104;631917 wrote: I'm not sleeping, I'm just hungover!
Eerie me too.

I went to an opening for a new restaurant last night, free booze. Not a good idea.

YZGI;631924 wrote: I went to an opening for a new restaurant last night, free booze. Not a good idea.




you kidding me thats a great idea :wah:



er space what do i think



another 5oo years we will be living in another universe :-3





what do you do when you find a space man ??



















you park in it man

I'm waiting for the Uranus jokes............:wah:

sunny104;631930 wrote: I'm waiting for the Uranus jokes............:wah:




there has to be a joke about





sat on rings

SlipStream;631904 wrote: how do you see mankind ever getting to live on other planets?


I'll explain why we'll fail, shall I?

Let me try juggling some order-of-magnitude calculations. Without a calculator. For some reason I can't find one on my menu today. That'll teach me not to install a previously unseen operating system first thing in the morning.

The local galaxy (the Milky Way) is 100,000 light-years in diameter with a volume of roughly 2x10^13 cubic light years.

Assume there are a minimum of ten planets inhabitable by humans within 20 light years of any point in the galaxy. That's a volume of 10^6 cubic light years. The galaxy contains 2x10^11 stars, so that search area has on average ten thousand stars in it of which I require no more than one in a thousand to have a water-oxygen roughly earth-sized planet free of existing occupants.

Assume humanity can build ships capable of taking enough people and equipment from one planetary system to another within that search space in a thousand-year trip time, where each colony (with its training, library and start-up supplies) can spend the next thousand years on the new planet developing the resources to send out ten similar colonies before settling into a stable existence. That's rather more than is required to send a self-propagating wave through the entire galaxy to every inhabitable planet, and to finish the expansion within a million years. Humanity's survived that long already, we could easily do it again so long as we have room to spread into.

So, why are we guaranteed to fail, I hear you ask?

Because it's so easy to populate the entire galaxy from a single space-travelling species-civilization, that's why. If there were any space-travelling species-civilizations anywhere in the milky way it would take them a blink of an eye, in cosmic terms, to fill it end to end. The galaxy's been around for twelve thousand million years, and it takes of the order of one million years to spread through it. It's improbable that we're the first species-civilization to approach a position to try it. If there were others, there were a lot of others. If any one of them succeeding would have left a switched-on galaxy, and we don't see the lights, nobody's ever managed the trick. If nobody else ever managed it, we're not going to.

I think that what all this implies is that every species-civilization destroys its environment before it escapes. Personally I blame George Bush.

spot;631971 wrote: I'll explain why we'll fail, shall I?



Let me try juggling some order-of-magnitude calculations. Without a calculator. For some reason I can't find one on my menu today. That'll teach me not to install a previously unseen operating system first thing in the morning.



The local galaxy (the Milky Way) is 100,000 light-years in diameter with a volume of roughly 2x10^13 cubic light years.



Assume there are a minimum of ten planets inhabitable by humans within 20 light years of any point in the galaxy. That's a volume of 10^6 cubic light years. The galaxy contains 2x10^11 stars, so that search area has on average ten thousand stars in it of which I require no more than one in a thousand to have a water-oxygen roughly earth-sized planet free of existing occupants.



Assume humanity can build ships capable of taking enough people and equipment from one planetary system to another within that search space in a thousand-year trip time, where each colony (with its training, library and start-up supplies) can spend the next thousand years on the new planet developing the resources to send out ten similar colonies before settling into a stable existence. That's rather more than is required to send a self-propagating wave through the entire galaxy to every inhabitable planet, and to finish the expansion within a million years. Humanity's survived that long already, we could easily do it again so long as we have room to spread into.



So, why are we guaranteed to fail, I hear you ask?



Because it's so easy to populate the entire galaxy from a single space-travelling species-civilization, that's why. If there were any space-travelling species-civilizations anywhere in the milky way it would take them a blink of an eye, in cosmic terms, to fill it end to end. The galaxy's been around for twelve thousand million years, and it takes of the order of one million years to spread through it. It's improbable that we're the first species-civilization to approach a position to try it. If there were others, there were a lot of others. If any one of them succeeding would have left a switched-on galaxy, and we don't see the lights, nobody's ever managed the trick. If nobody else ever managed it, we're not going to.



I think that what all this implies is that every species-civilization destroys its environment before it escapes. Personally I blame George Bush.


Thats what I was going to say.

YZGI;631974 wrote: Thats what I was going to say.I'm tempted to suggest that we're low by a factor of ten on our time estimate, then, but the basic argument stands.

its big

spot;631975 wrote: I'm tempted to suggest that we're low by a factor of ten on our time estimate, then, but the basic argument stands.
Agreed

YZGI;631987 wrote: Agreed


You know I'm going to hit you when we finally get to having a pint together, don't you.

spot;631988 wrote: You know I'm going to hit you when we finally get to having a pint together, don't you.
Yup. Happens to me all the time.

the us will do it the uk wont

have you seen the price of petrol how far is that planet away

the one with the little green men

YZGI;631909 wrote: Not gonna happen.


See Spot. We said the same thing, my post was just more succinct.

YZGI;631993 wrote: See Spot. We said the same thing, my post was just more succinct.


why

spot;631971 wrote: I'll explain why we'll fail, shall I?

Let me try juggling some order-of-magnitude calculations. Without a calculator. For some reason I can't find one on my menu today. That'll teach me not to install a previously unseen operating system first thing in the morning.

The local galaxy (the Milky Way) is 100,000 light-years in diameter with a volume of roughly 2x10^13 cubic light years.

Assume there are a minimum of ten planets inhabitable by humans within 20 light years of any point in the galaxy. That's a volume of 10^6 cubic light years. The galaxy contains 2x10^11 stars, so that search area has on average ten thousand stars in it of which I require no more than one in a thousand to have a water-oxygen roughly earth-sized planet free of existing occupants.

Assume humanity can build ships capable of taking enough people and equipment from one planetary system to another within that search space in a thousand-year trip time, where each colony (with its training, library and start-up supplies) can spend the next thousand years on the new planet developing the resources to send out ten similar colonies before settling into a stable existence. That's rather more than is required to send a self-propagating wave through the entire galaxy to every inhabitable planet, and to finish the expansion within a million years. Humanity's survived that long already, we could easily do it again so long as we have room to spread into.

So, why are we guaranteed to fail, I hear you ask?

Because it's so easy to populate the entire galaxy from a single space-travelling species-civilization, that's why. If there were any space-travelling species-civilizations anywhere in the milky way it would take them a blink of an eye, in cosmic terms, to fill it end to end. The galaxy's been around for twelve thousand million years, and it takes of the order of one million years to spread through it. It's improbable that we're the first species-civilization to approach a position to try it. If there were others, there were a lot of others. If any one of them succeeding would have left a switched-on galaxy, and we don't see the lights, nobody's ever managed the trick. If nobody else ever managed it, we're not going to.

I think that what all this implies is that every species-civilization destroys its environment before it escapes. Personally I blame George Bush.


Hmmm, although I agree with you about George Bush I question some of your other premises. I don't think it would be an easy thing to populate the galaxy even if a civilization could build the means to get off planet and travel some distances in "space".

Firstly, I don't see any possibility that a method can ever be developed that will allow someone to travel faster than speed of light. Unfortunately physical laws seem to preclude that possibility. Therefore in order to travel through the galaxy we could only go at sub-light speeds. Even if we approach the speed of light it will still take 20 years to get to the nearest star.

I have no idea how frequently the conditions occur in the universe that allow the development of life but assuming it is "somewhat" rare it could take billions of years for life to evolve to the point of space travel much less start "bumping" to other life. Also, our location in our galaxy is in one of the arms or swirls and somewhat off the beaten trail so to speak (if there is a beaten trail of course).

I would expect to see some sort of colonization of the moon and maybe Mars to begin occurring in the next hundred years or so (assuming as you point out we don't blow ourselves up). From there, possibly over the course of hundreds and thousands of years we could possibly send people to other systems on vessels that allow several generations of people to progress before arrival at the target system.

To sum up, I believe we will get to other worlds eventually and the possibility does exist to find other civilizations but the likelihood of doing so is not determinable right now.

zinkyusa;632000 wrote: Firstly, I don't see any possibility that a method can ever be developed that will allow someone to travel faster than speed of light. Unfortunately physical laws seem to preclude that possibility. Therefore in order to travel through the galaxy we could only go at sub-light speeds. Even if we approach the speed of light it will still take 20 years to get to the nearest star. I did give us a thousand years to travel just 20 light years, that's a long way short of light-speed. It's not an unlikely technological leap from plain chemical propulsion.zinkyusa;632000 wrote: I have no idea how frequently the conditions occur in the universe that allow the development of life but assuming it is "somewhat" rare it could take billions of years for life to evolve to the point of space travel much less start "bumping" to other life.My sole suggestion as far as this is concerned was that we'd be unlikely to be the first. I agree there are sensible reasons for arguing that we are though.zinkyusa;632000 wrote: Also, our location in our galaxy is in one of the arms or swirls and somewhat off the beaten trail so to speak (if there is a beaten trail of course). I worked on averages. I agree there are sparse zones to cross which might slow the spread. What I put for the whole galaxy applies equally well to just the local arm though. Divide the volume to be occupied by a hundred, everything else holds true.

Occupying just the existing solar system leaves us just as vulnerable to extinction as staying put on Earth does. It made for a great TV series though. Firefly was shiny.

spot;632009 wrote: I did give us a thousand years to travel just 20 light years, that's a long way short of light-speed. It's not an unlikely technological leap from plain chemical propulsion.My sole suggestion as far as this is concerned was that we'd be unlikely to be the first. I agree there are sensible reasons for arguing that we are though. I worked on averages. I agree there are sparse zones to cross which might slow the spread. What I put for the whole galaxy applies equally well to just the local arm though. Divide the volume to be occupied by a hundred, everything else holds true.

Occupying just the existing solar system leaves us just as vulnerable to extinction as staying put on Earth does. It made for a great TV series though. Firefly was shiny.


Man you are a fast typer..

zinkyusa;632000 wrote: Hmmm, although I agree with you about George Bush I question some of your other premises. I don't think it would be an easy thing to populate the galaxy even if a civilization could build the means to get off planet and travel some distances in "space".



Firstly, I don't see any possibility that a method can ever be developed that will allow someone to travel faster than speed of light. Unfortunately physical laws seem to preclude that possibility. Therefore in order to travel through the galaxy we could only go at sub-light speeds. Even if we approach the speed of light it will still take 20 years to get to the nearest star.



I have no idea how frequently the conditions occur in the universe that allow the development of life but assuming it is "somewhat" rare it could take billions of years for life to evolve to the point of space travel much less start "bumping" to other life. Also, our location in our galaxy is in one of the arms or swirls and somewhat off the beaten trail so to speak (if there is a beaten trail of course).



I would expect to see some sort of colonization of the moon and maybe Mars to begin occurring in the next hundred years or so (assuming as you point out we don't blow ourselves up). From there, possibly over the course of hundreds and thousands of years we could possibly send people to other systems on vessels that allow several generations of people to progress before arrival at the target system.



To sum up, I believe we will get to other worlds eventually and the possibility does exist to find other civilizations but the likelihood of doing so is not determinable right now.
Zinky, are you saying you don't agree with me and Spot?

zinkyusa;632015 wrote: Man you are a fast typer..
Thats why I always agree with him.

YZGI;632016 wrote: Zinky, are you saying you don't agree with me and Spot?


YZGI your arguments while cogent are somewhat porous:p

YZGI;632016 wrote: Zinky, are you saying you don't agree with me and Spot?


Zinky, if you come for a beer too we can both thump him at the same time, how's that?

spot;632019 wrote: Zinky, if you come for a beer too we can both thump him at the same time, how's that?




wizey old buddy two on to one is not fair ..... i'll hold your coat :wah: :wah:

spot;632019 wrote: Zinky, if you come for a beer too we can both thump him at the same time, how's that?


deal spot

erm you are buying right?

spot;632019 wrote: Zinky, if you come for a beer too we can both thump him at the same time, how's that?
How bout I buy. Will that get me a reprieve?

jimbo;632024 wrote: wizey old buddy two on to one is not fair ..... i'll hold your coat :wah: :wah:


and I'll hold suzy:sneaky:

zinkyusa;632029 wrote: and I'll hold suzy:sneaky:






i'll hold suzy's coat :wah: :wah:

jimbo;632031 wrote: i'll hold suzy's coat :wah: :wah:
Wait, Am I still getting thumped in this deal?

YZGI;632032 wrote: Wait, Am I still getting thumped in this deal?




yeah by suzy she loves spot :-3





and whilst you are all fighting i'm going through the coat pockets :wah: :wah:

"Mankind" has not mastered living on this planet Earth yet. "Mankind" does not need to go f#$%k up another planet. IMO

Depends really on whether you want "Mankind" to survive or whether you want to watch it follow the dinosaur into the claybeds. Staying on one planet is an absolute guarantee of extinction.

Stephen Hawkings was recently discussing the importance of colonising another planet. He spoke as if it was a likelihood. I'd like to see spot debate with Stephen.

What about evolving into a species that could survive in many millions or many more years to come if we have the chance? Lack of what we know to survive on this planet or any changes like gravity I donno just a silly thought :wah:

That's well within out collective capability so long as we have a location suited to survival. The single planet on which we currently live is a bad bet for providing that in the medium or long term. Chance events, natural or man-made, can destroy species wholesale. That will happen, planet by planet, over time. If it happens when we only exist on a single planet then we're permanently gone and never coming back. The elimination of what we are or what we might evolve into is inevitable on Earth at some point in the future. By then, either we've spread elsewhere or we're something else's history.

along-for-the-ride;632368 wrote: "Mankind" has not mastered living on this planet Earth yet. "Mankind" does not need to go f#$%k up another planet. IMO


so true blue.

thing is like you say a.f.t.r humankind's killing off this fine world on which their playin and it will someday inplode So unless we find another planet we're doomed!