The Newest Scary Thing
Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2007 11:59 am
President Bush spoke the other night articulating a "new strategy" in Iraq. The Next day the cable and network news shows did their wall-to-wall dog and pony shows. But few people seemed to notice a few very scary tidbits that Mr. Bush threw into his speech almost as after-thoughts. He happened to mention that a carrier battle group was steaming into the waters outside the Straights of Hormuz, that Iraq’s (US) friendly neighbors were being supplied with Patriot missile batteries, and that US forces would be “seeking out Iranian networks that support the insurgents in Iraq.
Hmm¦ What does all this mean? Why would we need more airpower in the Gulf—we have plenty right now. Why would a Navy Admiral be in charge of a land war in Iraq? Why would neighboring states need anti-missile batteries? And finally, why would US forces need a new mandate to seek out Iranian conspirators in Iraq—answer, they wouldn’t.
President Bush has had a problem with Iran. Although Iran clearly supports Shiite militias in Iraq and thumbs its nose at UN mandates to cease and desist nuclear development, there is no support in the US to threaten Iran militarily. And why not? Well, it could have something to do with much of the US army being pinned down in Iraq, the price of oil given a regional conflict in the Gulf, and finally the problems hard-liners are having in Iran maintaining their power—they lost big in the last Iranian elections—(semi) pro-western groups did much better.
So imagine this very scary scenario. The US finds and destroys insurgent support networks “inside Iran with airpower. The Iranians strike US forces in Iraq. Now the US has been attacked. Public opposition to an incursion into Iran has been all but neutralized. Why? Because who would stand against striking forces that have struck US forces for a hot-pursuit incursion into Iran? Now Mr. Bush, with Congressional opposition removed, can launch strikes from a carrier against Iranian nuclear facilities at will. Neighboring friendly countries have Patriots missiles protecting them against Iranian retaliation.
All this begs several questions. What about US sitting-duck forces in Iraq? What about any moderate pro-west movement in Iran? What about the price of oil in lieu of an escalating regional war, etc., etc.
Mr. Bush is a scary guy. When in trouble up to his neck—what to do—I got it, double down! Senators Hegel and Biden are right, this was one of the most disastrous foreign policy speeches of the post Vietnam era.
Hmm¦ What does all this mean? Why would we need more airpower in the Gulf—we have plenty right now. Why would a Navy Admiral be in charge of a land war in Iraq? Why would neighboring states need anti-missile batteries? And finally, why would US forces need a new mandate to seek out Iranian conspirators in Iraq—answer, they wouldn’t.
President Bush has had a problem with Iran. Although Iran clearly supports Shiite militias in Iraq and thumbs its nose at UN mandates to cease and desist nuclear development, there is no support in the US to threaten Iran militarily. And why not? Well, it could have something to do with much of the US army being pinned down in Iraq, the price of oil given a regional conflict in the Gulf, and finally the problems hard-liners are having in Iran maintaining their power—they lost big in the last Iranian elections—(semi) pro-western groups did much better.
So imagine this very scary scenario. The US finds and destroys insurgent support networks “inside Iran with airpower. The Iranians strike US forces in Iraq. Now the US has been attacked. Public opposition to an incursion into Iran has been all but neutralized. Why? Because who would stand against striking forces that have struck US forces for a hot-pursuit incursion into Iran? Now Mr. Bush, with Congressional opposition removed, can launch strikes from a carrier against Iranian nuclear facilities at will. Neighboring friendly countries have Patriots missiles protecting them against Iranian retaliation.
All this begs several questions. What about US sitting-duck forces in Iraq? What about any moderate pro-west movement in Iran? What about the price of oil in lieu of an escalating regional war, etc., etc.
Mr. Bush is a scary guy. When in trouble up to his neck—what to do—I got it, double down! Senators Hegel and Biden are right, this was one of the most disastrous foreign policy speeches of the post Vietnam era.