The Presidential Election of 2024

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Bryn Mawr
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by Bryn Mawr »

LarsMac wrote: Fri Dec 15, 2023 11:47 am
Bryn Mawr wrote: Fri Dec 15, 2023 3:42 am What legal grounds are they using to argue for a suspension of the trial?
Not sure of the legal grounds, but the argument seems to be that the trial would be right in the middle of the Campaign cycle offering the most egregious example of "Election Interference" in history.


The Prosecutor "brushed off that idea, pointing out that prosecutors all over the country are always investigating people for various crimes and that they do not stop doing so just because someone runs for office."
“If the prosecutor finds that they violated the law, they have an ethical duty to bring forth charges and so this is a silly notion to me that because one runs from office that your criminal case would stop,” she said.
Totally agree, the court case started first, if he didn't want it to interfere with the election then don't stand :-)
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by LarsMac »

Well, I'm rather proud of my current Home State this week.
Colorado Supreme Court rules Trump is disqualified from presidency for Jan. 6 riot

But they have stepped into world of shit for their efforts
Colorado Supreme Court justices face a flood of threats after disqualifying Trump from the ballot
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

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LarsMac wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 4:19 pm Well, I'm rather proud of my current Home State this week.
Colorado Supreme Court rules Trump is disqualified from presidency for Jan. 6 riot

But they have stepped into world of shit for their efforts
Colorado Supreme Court justices face a flood of threats after disqualifying Trump from the ballot
It appears to be the way things are going nowadays - if you don't like what someone does or says then threaten to kill him :-(
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

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The paragraph in question:
Section 3
No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

So, this paragraph does not specifically include the Offices of President and Vice President as being included. A thin - VERY Thin - line in the sand. But, Mr T has attempted to latch onto that line.

Also, of course the constitution forbids legal prosecution of a sitting President. Trump claims that he is immune to prosecution because during the time in question, he was, of course the sitting President.
That, however only forbids prosecution while the president is in office, and the Articles of Impeachment would address that issue, were he still the sitting President. Once he was relieved from office by the inauguration of now President Biden, that no longer applies.
There are all manner pro-Trumpers who try to latch on to all of that. I've have learned to keep my mouth shut in public to avoid confrontations with these people in hopes of going on breathing for a while longer. They are not deep thinkers, and most of them are armed. [sigh]
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

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LarsMac wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2023 3:52 pm The paragraph in question:
Section 3
No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

So, this paragraph does not specifically include the Offices of President and Vice President as being included. A thin - VERY Thin - line in the sand. But, Mr T has attempted to latch onto that line.

Also, of course the constitution forbids legal prosecution of a sitting President. Trump claims that he is immune to prosecution because during the time in question, he was, of course the sitting President.
That, however only forbids prosecution while the president is in office, and the Articles of Impeachment would address that issue, were he still the sitting President. Once he was relieved from office by the inauguration of now President Biden, that no longer applies.
There are all manner pro-Trumpers who try to latch on to all of that. I've have learned to keep my mouth shut in public to avoid confrontations with these people in hopes of going on breathing for a while longer. They are not deep thinkers, and most of them are armed. [sigh]
The question then becomes "has he taken an oath to support the Constitution of the United States" which he obviously has - as he has, just as obviously, held an office, civil or military, under the United States.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by LarsMac »

Yessir. He plans to force the courts to spell it out to the minutest of detail.

The Latest from his legal team:

From NDC News, via Microdoft
rom Former President Donald Trump on Saturday demanded that the DC Circuit Court of Appeals toss the federal election interference case against him, arguing again that presidential immunity protects him from prosecution.

“The structure of our government, the text of the Constitution and its early commentators, common-law immunity doctrines, our political history, the Supreme Court’s analogous immunity doctrines, and the policy considerations rooted in the separation of powers all dictate that no President, current or former, may be criminally prosecuted for his official acts unless he is first impeached and convicted by the Senate," Trump lawyers wrote in a brief to the DC Circuit Court of Appeals.

Continue reading

"Nor may a President face criminal prosecution based on conduct for which he was acquitted by the U.S. Senate," he added. "The indictment against President Trump is unlawful and unconstitutional. It must be dismissed.”The Supreme Court on Friday sidestepped special counsel Jack Smith's request asking the justices to quickly decide whether Trump has broad immunity for his attempts to overturn his 2020 election loss amid his presidential term.

SIGH

More:...
Because the Supreme Court decided against intervening in the case, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit will hear oral arguments on Jan. 9.

After that court rules, the Supreme Court could swiftly decide whether to take up the case.

In his request to the Supreme Court, Smith said the case “presents a fundamental question at the heart of our democracy: whether a former President is absolutely immune from federal prosecution for crimes committed while in office” in a court filing this month.

Trump’s lawyers pushed back in court papers, arguing that Smith had given “no compelling reason” why the Supreme Court should immediately step in ahead of the appeals court.

Reacting to the Supreme Court’s move on Friday, Trump slammed Smith’s initial request for the court to step in, decrying it as a “desperate attempt to short circuit our Great Constitution” in a post to his Truth Social platform.

In his post, Trump also said that he was “looking forward” to arguments before the appeals court next month while reiterating baseless claims about the 2020 presidential election.

Earlier this month, U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan, who is presiding over the election interference case, denied Trump’s motion to dismiss his indictment on presidential immunity and constitutional grounds. The case is on hold while Trump appeals the decision.

Trump’s lawyers argue that his role in questioning the result of the election was within the “outer perimeter” of his official responsibilities as president, citing a 1982 Supreme Court ruling about presidential immunity. Therefore, under Supreme Court precedent, Trump is immune from prosecution, his lawyers argue.

Trump’s lawyers also point to the Senate’s acquittal of Trump following impeachment proceedings over his role in events that led to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, arguing that the former president can’t face separate prosecution for the same actions.

Smith has argued that Trump’s attempts to overturn the election were unrelated to his official duties as president and that the Constitution’s language on impeachment permits separate criminal proceedings even if the president is acquitted.

A federal grand jury in Washington indicted Trump on four charges in August: conspiracy to defraud the U.S., conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction, and conspiracy against the right to vote and to have one’s vote counted. Trump pleaded not guilty at his arraignment hearing.

Trump faces three other criminal prosecutions but remains the frontrunner in the polls for the Republican nomination.

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by Comi23 »

What do you all think about Trump's conviction? Will it affect his chances of running for president again?
Trump definitely plans to appeal the conviction. According to this law site, he could use the fact that there were significant legal errors during his trial. If the appeal is successful, the conviction could be overturned.
It's interesting to see how this legal battle unfolds.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

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Nonetheless, he said Harris was qualified to be president as well, although he misnamed her in the endorsement. “I wouldn’t have picked vice-president Trump to be vice-president, if she’s not qualified to be president,” he said.

That gaffe was compounded by the fact that he had introduced the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, as “President Putin” just hours earlier, before correcting himself and saying “we’re going to beat Putin”.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/art ... rris-trump
If President Biden refuses to stand down and let someone else run in his place, it's odds-on President Trump will win his second term.

And if If President Biden does step aside and allow an alternative Democratic candidate, it's also odds-on President Trump will win his second term.

Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

Nobody else is doing this to America, it's entirely self-inflicted. The only outcome which would electrify America and lead to the sunny uplands would be the election of Kamala Harris, and I think Biden has blocked that for too long for it to happen, and even if she ran I don't think America is sufficiently competent to elect her. 115 days is not enough time to make that possible.

We will, I suspect, end up with a second Trump presidency, the world will sit back with its popcorn, Ukrainians will finally realize what a catastrophic set of decisions its government took in trying to turn its back on Russia. I can't see the Pentagon being enthused either. On the plus side we'll get Trump without the accompanying Covid.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

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There is, of course, an alternative future in which President Biden is re-elected, inaugurated, serves a few weeks for the record and then retires through infirmity in favour of his Vice-President.

It would allow Kamala Harris eleven years as President and retirement at 71. And while I would very much like to see that happen, I don't give much for its chances.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

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President Trump's electoral chance for a second term got a significant boost yesterday. That, I would imagine, is incontestable.
“There is no figure in American history at least in the modern era - maybe since Lincoln - who’s been so vilified and really persecuted by media and Hollywood elites, political figures, even the legal system,” Johnson said on NBC’s Today show.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/liv ... nia-latest

That's possibly true too. The legal system didn't really persecute President Obama, so the qualification excludes him.

Nobody should wish anything other than a speedy recovery for the luckiest candidate in all of American history.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

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There is, it turns out, a photographic record on the occasion of the attempted assassination of President Trump - I have a copy on my screen as I type. Associated Press photographer Evan Vucci's image will, I suspect, be counted among the greatest pieces of photo-journalism in world history, up there with Raising the Flag on Iwo Jima by Joe Rosenthal, also of the Associated Press.

If you bring Tiepolo's Descent from the Cross to mind, but with Christ's eyes open and his fist in the air as blood spreads down his face from the open wound, you have a fair estimate of its explosive nature. It has the Stars and Stripes raised in the background, in sharp focus against an uninterrupted blue sky, near where the original painter situated the Cross, and the security detail in a circle as they lower the risen Messiah to the the steps leading down from the platform.

Subsequent events have taken full advantage of the attempt on his life. JD Vance (39, "Sauron" to his friends) has been declared by acclamation as Trump's running mate at yesterday's Milwaukee Republican Convention, immediately before Trump became the official Presidential candidate for November having reached an unassailable lead in the primaries. A frenzied audience screamed "Fight Fight Fight" in unison when Trump appeared on the floor, wearing a bandage over his ear covering the damaged cartilage remaining from the 140 yard rifle shot at last Saturday's rally.

President Biden's interview two days before the shooting, saying "we’re done talking about the debate. It’s time to put Trump in a bullseye", can't be erased from the public record and was clearly a catastrophic hostage to fortune from the moment it was uttered. Those are not the words of a candidate looking to raise the tone of the campaign, they're incomprehensibly self-destructive.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

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As of yesterday there can only be one result in November - it’s been handed to him on a plate.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

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I'm completely baffled by this brain-dead administration in the White House.

There's an assassination attempt, President Biden goes out for his first subsequent campaign speech and what idiocy do we get? Confrontational "we need more gun control". How exactly is that supposed to help reset the adversarial tone? Where's the priorities in this? It's knee-jerk partisan stuff. Whether it's justified or not is irrelevant, it's argumentative, it's not helpful, it's point-scoring at a time when scoring points is not the sensible step to take. It is a wasted opportunity.

There's a world of difference between "please stop killing each other" and "ban owning dirt-cheap overpowered firearms". Either it's President Biden who's tone-deaf or it's his advisers, but someone in that chain has to rethink what politics is about.

As for anyone possessing a rifle or ammunition who fails to secure it adequately, they should be jailed into the next century. That's just common sense and not partisan at all.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by Bryn Mawr »

My take would be :-
As for anyone possessing a rifle or ammunition, they should be jailed into the next century. That's just common sense and not partisan at all.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by spot »

Oh yes. Hallelujah, praise the Lord.

"I stand before you in this arena only by the grace of almighty God." We'll be declaring his mother immaculate before the election is out.
Trump promised to lower inflation and “end every single international crisis”, without mentioning anything specific about how he would do so other than drilling for oil and closing the border.

“If you took the 10 worst presidents in the history of the United States, think of it. The 10 worst. Added them up, they will not have done the damage that Biden has done,” he said, pledging to only use the president’s name once in his speech.

Much of his convention speech resembled the freewheeling stump speeches Trump has become known for. He pledged “the largest deportation operation in the history of our country” while reciting falsehoods about who was coming into the United States. Claiming that countries were emptying asylums to send people to the US, Trump veered into a bizarre segue about Hannibal Lecter, the cannibal villain from the film Silence of the Lambs.

“Has anyone seen Silence of the Lambs, the late great Hannibal Lecter, he’d love to have you for dinner,” Trump says.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/art ... ans-speech

It's pitiable dross but that's not going to stand in the man's way. God has spoken, the candidate is resurrected from the grave, book your ticket for the parade.

It would be timely to recall that this repellently smug dotard is asking to be placed in the office of President of the USA until he's 82. And a half.

Could we not settle for JD Vance immediately and get that over with instead?
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by spot »

US President Joe Biden endorses Kamala Harris after ending re-election campaign

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1e5xpdzkd8o

Of all the inept ways to go, that is the most so.

If President Biden is not fit to run then surely he can accept he's not fit to finish his term, and allow Kamala Harris to go into the election as President Harris on an equal rank-footing with her competitor.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

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spot wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 12:03 pm
US President Joe Biden endorses Kamala Harris after ending re-election campaign

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1e5xpdzkd8o

Of all the inept ways to go, that is the most so.

If President Biden is not fit to run then surely he can accept he's not fit to finish his term, and allow Kamala Harris to go into the election as President Harris on an equal rank-footing with her competitor.
Given her history I do not see that she has any chance of being elected anyway.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

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Bryn Mawr wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 4:04 pmGiven her history I do not see that she has any chance of being elected anyway.

I haven't the slightest idea what character flaw would lead her to run in the first place. One would have to think one was the best person for the job - strike 1. One would have to believe running the country well would improve the lot of human existence across the planet - strike 2. And then there's Alice...

“one can’t believe impossible things.”

“I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.

https://gutenberg.org/cache/epub/12/pg12-images.html
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

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I am finding the shift from Biden to Harris to be rather exciting. The Democratic Party has re-awakened. Sleepy Joe, as Trump liked to call him, has changed the game. I particularly like him doing it right after the Rethuglican Party convention closed with their best Anti-Biden Strategy all lined up and ready for launch.

This election is going to be FUN!
(A good thing, since it could well prove to be our last if we let The Donald back in to the White House.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

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It's not apparent to me how much political experience her four years as Vice-President has brought her. Perhaps I reed the rong papers.

Given a say - which of course I haven't - I think she'd make a far better President than President Trump would. I too would like to find out. I'm not sure how to shut the noise out if she actually wins though, there will be a great deal of angry shouting.

I see Washington just rioted at this week's guest speaker.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

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It's very possible that Biden and the Dems have had that lined up for a while, and if so, BRAVO!
I've been holding my breath for a few months now, and was astounded that they even agreed to the that debate. Public speaking is not Joe's strong hand, these days. And Harris has been just sitting back, waiting for the power shift.

We'll see how it plays out.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

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Out of interest, does anyone actually believe President Trump's commitment would be honoured if he wins his second term?
"Under the Trump administration, we are going to be paying for that treatment," Trump said in an interview with NBC News. "Or we're going to be mandating that the insurance company pay."

Trump soon announced the policy at a rally in Michigan, telling a crowd that "your government will pay for or your insurance company will be mandated to pay for all costs associated with IVF treatment."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-ivf- ... -coverage/
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

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My new Tailgate sticker...
Image
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

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LarsMac wrote: Wed Jul 24, 2024 2:09 pm Rethuglican Party
LOL. that's what I call them too...
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

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spot wrote: Mon Sep 02, 2024 4:04 pm President Trump's commitment would be honored if he wins his second term?
1. trump has to commitment to anything...even from minute to minute.

2. trump has no honor, nor any conception of it.

3. If he wins a second term...you should stock up on canned goods and bottled water.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by spot »

Saint_ wrote: Thu Sep 26, 2024 11:52 am
spot wrote: Mon Sep 02, 2024 4:04 pm President Trump's commitment would be honored if he wins his second term?
1. trump has to commitment to anything...even from minute to minute.

2. trump has no honor, nor any conception of it.

3. If he wins a second term...you should stock up on canned goods and bottled water.


It must be said, President Trump ha a tendency to say whatever will generate a headline regardless of sounding honest. Or reasonable.

Your Vance chappie was cast in a similar mold.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by Bryn Mawr »

spot wrote: Thu Sep 26, 2024 12:19 pm


It must be said, President Trump ha a tendency to say whatever will generate a headline regardless of sounding honest. Or reasonable.

Your Vance chappie was cast in a similar mold.
And once he’s said it, it must be true. He can’t back down even when proven wrong.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by spot »

Bryn Mawr wrote: Fri Sep 27, 2024 1:25 am
spot wrote: Thu Sep 26, 2024 12:19 pm


It must be said, President Trump ha a tendency to say whatever will generate a headline regardless of sounding honest. Or reasonable.

Your Vance chappie was cast in a similar mold.
And once he’s said it, it must be true. He can’t back down even when proven wrong.


Don't knock the idea, it's worked for me since birth.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by spot »

Vox pops, to whatever extent such a thing exists on the streets of Beijing, on how the contenders are seen there:
That is why Mr Meng, in his 70s, hopes Donald Trump will win the election.

“Although he imposes economic sanctions on China, he does not wish to start or fight a war. Mr Biden starts more wars so more ordinary people dislike him. It is Mr Biden who supports Ukraine’s war and both Russia and Ukraine suffer great loss from the war,” he said.

Some sisters recording a dance routine for their social media page chip in. “Donald Trump said in the debate that he will end the war in Ukraine 24 hours after he takes office,” says one.

“About Harris, I know little about her, we think she follows the same route as President Biden who supports war.”

Their opinions echo a key message being propagated on Chinese state media.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4zpy3zj7ro

It's difficult to argue against the principle. Donald Trump is an isolationist whose ideas on foreign policy could be written on a postcard, he has no interest other than when it impinges on domestic affairs and local sentiment. His interest is being loathed or liked by his fellow citizens, nobody else. Everywhere foreign is a shithole, if I remember correctly.

I can't imagine the Pentagon wants to see him back in office.

Polls underestimated support for Trump in both 2016 and 2020. We have the same thing in the UK with the Conservative party - nobody wants to admit to be a prat in public, but they'll vote for them in the privacy of the polling booth.

For those hoping for a prediction of the result I can only see two obvious flips, both to President Trump: Arizona and Georgia. That would leave Kamala Harris winning by 276:262. The only states she might hope to gain are Florida and North Carolina. It would depend on the final week and the weather but I doubt she'll achieve either.

What she could lose additionally might be Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, either of which would leave President Trump with a second term. I should also point out I'm terrible at accurate predictions.

The dirty tricks part hasn't started yet, I wonder what we might see.

21 days to go, folks. Bonfire night.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by spot »

Lawyers acting for President Trump's election campaign have written to the UK Labour Party and to the Federal Election Commission complaining about political interference in America's domestic Presidential election two weeks from now.

The UK Deputy Prime Minister, Angela Rayner, said in the House today:
People in their own time often go and campaign, and that’s what we’ve seen.

It happens in all political parties, people go and campaign and they do what they want to do with their own time, with their own money.

and John Healey, the defence secretary, said:

Any individual Labour supporters that are over in the US, being part of the Democratic election campaign, are there as individuals. They’re there at their own time. They’re there at their own expense, and if they’ve got accommodation out there that will be also provided by volunteers. This happens in every election. It’s commonplace.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... atest-news

which isn't quite the point.

The point is that Sofia Patel, the Labour Party’s head of operations, posted on LinkedIn last week that she was "coordinating nearly 100 current and former party officials to campaign in battleground states" in the final weeks of the US presidential election, and that therre were 10 remaining slots for anyone interested in joining them.

Now, ask yourself whether we'd all be up in arms if that was something organized and run by the ruling party in Iran or Israel, say, or anywhere in Asia. One can imagine a similar protest being made and the rest of us saying the Republicans have good reason to criticize.

They've good reason to criticize.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by spot »

May I file a quote here, from Benjamin Carter Hett in “The Death of Democracy: Hitler’s Rise to Power and the Downfall of the Weimar Republic”:
Thinking about the end of Weimar democracy in this way - as the result of a large protest movement colliding with complex patterns of elite self-interest, in a culture increasingly prone to aggressive mythmaking and irrationality - strips away the exotic and foreign look of swastika banners and goose-stepping Stormtroopers. Suddenly, the whole thing looks close and familiar.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018 ... ced-hitler
There's still two weeks to step back from the brink, folks.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by spot »

And now there's five days.

Someone called Carlson Tucker is keen to be visible to the public:
He addressed a rally in Georgia last week, telling Trump supporters that the candidate’s possible return to the White House was like a father returning home and Trump would give the country a “vigorous spanking”.

“He’s not vengeful. He loves his children. Disobedient as they may be, he loves them. Because they’re his children. They live in his house. But he’s very disappointed in their behavior. And he’s going to have to let them know,” Carlson said.

“When Dad gets home, you know what he says? ‘You’ve been a bad girl. You’ve been a bad little girl, and you’re getting a vigorous spanking right now.’”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... mon-attack
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by spot »

And the chap who wrote Fire and Fury, Siege and Landslide, Michael Wolff, seems not to be aware there's an election on. At least, he doesn't mention the fact. But he wants to be seen too.
A New York author and journalist has released audio tapes that appear to detail how Donald Trump had a close social relationship with the late sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein that he has long denied.

The tapes, released as part of the Fire and Fury podcast series by Michael Wolff, author of three books about Trump’s first term and 2020 bid for a second, and James Truman, former NME journalist and Condé Nast editorial director, include Epstein’s thoughts about the inner workings of the former US president’s inner circle.

Wolff says the recordings were made during a 2017 discussion with Epstein about writing his biography.

[...] Wolff claims the excerpt tape is a mere fraction of some “100 hours of Epstein talking about the inner workings of the Trump White House and about his longstanding, deep relationship with Donald Trump”.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... tein-tapes
Wolff has sat festering over those tapes for half a decade and springs them in election week?

Even if they're all he claims, they're entirely Epstein talking. Not Donald Trump. A sanitary voter would refuse to pay attention.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by spot »

President Trump, meanwhile, is making spectacular threats at his final rallies:
“She’s a radical war hawk,” he said of Liz Cheney. Then said: “Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her. Let’s see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... p-dictator
That's just plain drooling fantasy. The world would be a better place if he retired. He's what? 78? Shame on you, Mr President. Or, as Ms Cheney sums him up, he's "a petty, vindictive, cruel, unstable man who wants to be a tyrant."

Though as was said during his first term, the only way to challenge the Illuminati is from the inside...

trump-orb.jpg
trump-orb.jpg (134.78 KiB) Viewed 250 times

God only knows who they thought they were invoking, but they shouldn't have been doing it with a palantir.

Vote while you can.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by spot »

Today's Guardian poll of polls has state predictions for all the swing states. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng- ... s-election

The national poll shows Kamala Harris one point ahead, which is clearly insufficient of a national margin - Biden last time was 6 million national votes ahead.

The swing state votes give Trump a win with 281:257 which is a majority of 24 electoral college votes, even if he loses Nevada which is currently tied.

The only unfactored aspect is people saying they'll vote Trump for fear of being abused for saying otherwise, but then voting against him in the privacy of the polling booth. I think that's not a straw worth clutching at.

And it is, after all, the US electorate that has to make the choice.


Oh, I looked on YouTube because people have been saying there are partisan channels there, and I found one so it's true.

"Trump PANICS on Friday WORSE THAN EVER with BAD NEWS" - MeidasTouch host Ben Meiselas reports on Donald Trump panicking on Friday as news comes in that is bad for him.

Which, having watched the first thirty seconds, is so blatantly one-sided that I'm surprised he bothers, whoever he is.

I'll not go looking again, that was just unsavoury.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by spot »

So, the election is tomorrow.

I shall be much surprised if President Trump loses. I'm not sure how he can.

As usual I expect I'm entirely wrong. I shall watch early on Wednesday morning UK time, when we might see the first declarations. With any luck there will be a few entirely unexpected flips. Florida or Texas would be unexpected, either would put the cat among the pigeons.

Of the swing states - the states most in contention - Democrats might at best hope to retain Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada. Other than that the other swing states which voted Democrat in 2020 now look to flip Republican, and it's enough. It's so much enough that even if the non-swing Ohio does turn Democrat (after that very odd poll result a few days ago) it's not enough to stop a Republican win.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by Bryn Mawr »

Pensylvania?

Most polls seem to have it within 0.5%
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by spot »

Bryn Mawr wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 5:44 pm Pensylvania?

Most polls seem to have it within 0.5%
You could, yes. You'll remember it voted for Biden in 2020.

If you treat these 7 swing states as too close to call, they are 93 electoral college votes. There are 128 permutations. I just ran a small combinatorial script. Kamala Harris needs at least 44 of those 93 electoral college votes to win (by 2 points), and 55% of those 128 combinations reach 44 or more. Which is, quite pleasingly, a very slight benefit toward Kamala Harris.

It would also be quite nice if a few states other than any of those 7 improbably flip, just to confound the pollsters.

I recall Al Gore losing the entire presidential election in 2000 by 537 real-elector Floridian hanging-chad votes in another close call, and we were all saddled with Bush Jr from that particular result.

But I ought to make a decision on the basis of where things stand, before any results are declared. It appears to me Kamala Harris will be obliged to concede defeat and that we will have a second Trump term, we shall have a Republican Senate and House as well. I don't expect Trump will see the term out either, he's nothing like well enough, I've not seen so much make-up on a man since Danny La Rue on whom it looked much more decorative.

United States governors are predominantly Republican too.

To make matters crushingly worse, there have been several random voters interviewed for current affairs who have actually said "I don't think America's ready for a woman President", which is the worst aspect of all.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by spot »

There have been no confirmed flips, but those considered probable look rather grim for Kamala Harris.

One swing state, Wisconsin, is being discussed as a flip to Republican.

Three others, Minnesota, Maine and Virginia, originally considered very likely Democrat, are also being suggested as flips to Republican.

The West Coast still hasn't closed its polls.

But it looks like a Trump victory at 2:30GMT.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by spot »

There were seven swing states. Six of those were won by Biden in 2020. All of those six states appear as though they'll be flipped and no other state will have changed. It would be enough to have given a 94 electoral college vote majority to the Republicans.
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Re: The Presidential Election of 2024

Post by spot »

If nobody minds, I might use this post to accumulate potential consequences of the Republican victory.

First and foremost, we have a potentially destructive climate denier in the White House. Drill baby drill, if I got that quote right.

Ukraine will have to look for new sources of support, they'll see nothing from America - we might even see the US withdrawing from NATO. Taiwan might be abandoned.

I see little chance of an American diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East so no change there.

Many federal resources are about to be shut down: in particular a rapid reduction in the scope of the EPA. Many more will be under new management with political rather than functional objectives. Federal appointments will mushroom as partisan appointees are shoehorned into place.

DOJ prosecution priorities relating to President Trump may change very soon. I wonder whether he could order the destruction of the associated data?

The proposed tariff war might kick off.

We could go back to executive authority through executive orders, with Congress playing legislative catch-up with the immediately effective orders over the next couple of years.

Oh - and the wall.
Nullius in verba ... ☎||||||||||| ... To Fate I sue, of other means bereft, the only refuge for the wretched left.
When flower power came along I stood for Human Rights, marched around for peace and freedom, had some nooky every night - we took it serious.
Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game! ... My other OS is Slackware.
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