Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

[spot]

The Chinese are still keeping new infections from accelerating, the effort must be enormous. It will get harder now the holidays are over and the workforce is getting back into circulation. I'm not sure about schools. It's a temporary victory of sorts but it's wildly impressive. The reported cases are now an entire day lower than the exponential prediction.

The British government has put in hand the most draconian measure I've ever seen, so they know quite well what's on the horizon.

The UK government has declared coronavirus a "serious and imminent threat" to public health, as it announced new powers to fight its spread.

Under the measures, people can now be forcibly quarantined and will not be free to leave.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51442314




That is the most extreme public order since World War Two, as far as I can recall. Perhaps with that they can hold it back until a vaccine arrives. And perhaps it only spreads when it's cold and dark, and summer will help. I think they're wrong about the "serious" but that's a matter of scale. This sounds an order of magnitude less lethal than serious would be, this sounds more like a very bad flu year.

Quarantining infections from the mass population is lunatic, self-isolation has to be far more effective. The disease will go underground and the authorities are too inept to inspect contacts once the numbers start rising. Public cooperation doesn't sit well with snatch squads.

If Britain still had any tourist agencies they'd be going bust this year. On the other hand it's a perfect excuse for why Brexit will turn out so catastrophic.

[Bryn Mawr]

spot;1530323 wrote: The Chinese are still keeping new infections from accelerating, the effort must be enormous. It will get harder now the holidays are over and the workforce is getting back into circulation. I'm not sure about schools. It's a temporary victory of sorts but it's wildly impressive. The reported cases are now an entire day lower than the exponential prediction.

The British government has put in hand the most draconian measure I've ever seen, so they know quite well what's on the horizon.



That is the most extreme public order since World War Two, as far as I can recall. Perhaps with that they can hold it back until a vaccine arrives. And perhaps it only spreads when it's cold and dark, and summer will help. I think they're wrong about the "serious" but that's a matter of scale. This sounds an order of magnitude less lethal than serious would be, this sounds more like a very bad flu year.

Quarantining infections from the mass population is lunatic, self-isolation has to be far more effective. The disease will go underground and the authorities are too inept to inspect contacts once the numbers start rising. Public cooperation doesn't sit well with snatch squads.

If Britain still had any tourist agencies they'd be going bust this year. On the other hand it's a perfect excuse for why Brexit will turn out so catastrophic.


Apparently it’s a response to one of the original evacuation flight from Wuhan who’s threatening to abscond from quarantine - not a clever move.

[spot]

Bryn Mawr;1530329 wrote: Apparently it’s a response to one of the original evacuation flight from Wuhan who’s threatening to abscond from quarantine - not a clever move.


They could have dealt with that by sectioning the bugger, not applying forced restraint on 60 million people.

What happened to the promised new name from the WHO?

[spot]

The latest daily increase in reported cases in China is the lowest figure in ten days. That's impressive. The cumulative total is now down to 70% of the expected figure, almost 20,000 below what was anticipated.

[Bryn Mawr]

This cruise liner is making a poor showing at isolation and decontamination - another thirty nine cases today taking the total up to one hundred and seventy four, over a quarter of the RoW total.

[spot]

I have a quote off the BBC which is remarkably optimistic.

Asked about reports that the coronavirus epidemic could be over by April, Dr Michael Ryan, the executive director of the WHO health emergencies programme, says he would love to be able to predict the future, “but we need to be cautious”.

He says that evidence of the stabilisation of cases is very reassuring. “We expect to see the virus come under control but we’re not going to talk about numbers or dates

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... pdate-news




"We expect to see the virus come under control". From the executive director of the WHO health emergencies programme.

Golly.

[spot]

Those big jumps in cases and deaths today highlight that the number of cases and deaths really ought not depend on the availability of nucleic acid test kits, especially if nucleic acid test kits are in short supply.

I presume proportions will go back to where they were and we can continue to watch for the WHO's anticipated downturn. As of today the number of reported cases is two days behind the exponential growth model, which is a good thing. If we see the two day lag become three and then four we shall be even more relieved.

[Bryn Mawr]

spot;1530442 wrote: Those big jumps in cases and deaths today highlight that the number of cases and deaths really ought not depend on the availability of nucleic acid test kits, especially if nucleic acid test kits are in short supply.

I presume proportions will go back to where they were and we can continue to watch for the WHO's anticipated downturn. As of today the number of reported cases is two days behind the exponential growth model, which is a good thing. If we see the two day lag become three and then four we shall be even more relieved.


That’s just the one province changing to a more open form of reporting, (albeit the main one) how many other provinces have yet to change?

[spot]

That's one possibility. The reported cases didn't need to be adjusted though, they just need to be consistent. It has more a feel that a cumulative paring down of the daily count was starting to be visible and it's all been reset under this specious excuse. Either way it's a good thing that we can feel confident the daily reported case count will be comparable from one week to the next, now that it's renormalized.

[Bryn Mawr]

spot;1530449 wrote: That's one possibility. The reported cases didn't need to be adjusted though, they just need to be consistent. It has more a feel that a cumulative paring down of the daily count was starting to be visible and it's all been reset under this specious excuse. Either way it's a good thing that we can feel confident the daily reported case count will be comparable from one week to the next, now that it's renormalized.


So it’s only Hubei province that’s changed the definition, can we now expect the other provinces to drip feed changes in order to maintain the uncertainty?

[spot]

The underlying essential bit is that they've moved heaven and earth to minimize the extent of the infection and they're still balanced on winning or losing against it. If the total reported cases in mainland China is under six figures at the end of the month then they're still on top of things.

The surface distortion is that the figures are manipulated, straightened toward truth, re-twisted, but nothing resembles an exponential rocket so far.

I doubt any other country could have limited matters given the density of population involved. It must be costing China a fortune and if they went back to business as usual it would cost them less financially. The fact that they're fighting is moral excellence.

There is, of course, an up side to all this. Fossil fuel production and consumption will plummet this year.

[spot]

spot;1530214 wrote: I'm not sure I red https://www.theguardian.com/global-deve ... -indonesia correctly. Indonesia has no cases but hasn't tested anyone?

I threw a match on some petrol once. The effect may be similar.
A Harvard academic has defended research suggesting a possible underreporting of coronavirus cases in Indonesia, following fierce criticism from the health minister in the world’s fourth most populous country, which insists it has no cases.

Professor Marc Lipsitch analysed air traffic out of the Chinese city at the centre of the outbreak in China and suggested in a report last week that Indonesia might have missed cases. On Tuesday the Indonesian health minister Terawan Agus Putranto called the report “insulting” and said the country had proper testing equipment.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... c-lipsitch


One can only hope Indonesian health minister Terawan Agus Putranto is pilloried by an angry mob in a public square when he's eventually shown to have buried his head all this while. I don't doubt that Indonesia has proper testing equipment but I don't believe for a moment that his department has done an adequate job testing or following up contacts, nor that it will later on.

Lipsitch, from the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, co-authored a paper that found several locations including Indonesia, Cambodia and Thailand where the number of cases were below the levels expected. “We stand by our research,” he said. “I certainly do not intend it as an insult to any country or person. The role of public health is to spot potential problems and to point them out.”


Professor Lipsitch might not intend it as an insult, but I do.

Elsewhere, "IOC insists Tokyo Olympics will go ahead despite coronavirus ".

And two MPs have self-isolated after being at a conference. You'd think if anyone could expect a quick test it would be them.

[spot]

This post is not a statement of fact, it's an interpretation of my silly ill-informed spreadsheet driven solely by the Johns Hopkins data. At best my comments in this thread would be fake news if they were to be taken as news rather than speculative fiction. I am not providing news, I am talking to myself.

Bear in mind that there are only four weeks of published figures so far, and a lot of activity on the ground has made significant differences to the spread of the disease, but its clear now that the cases in mainland China have been held back to a remarkable extent. The Chinese government is going go have to make a big choice in the near future though. There's no point wrecking the economy if the end result is only a minor adjustment of the severity and effect on the disease.

The astonishing achievement is that the extrapolated date for the millionth confirmed case in mainland China, on my graph at least, has been deferred from the last week of February to the last half of March, that's a three to five week shift. Maybe it puts the virus into a time of year when it will have more trouble spreading if it needs the present cold conditions on the ground, I can see good reasons for at least continuing to try.

I still think one test for whether the near-term number of reported cases in mainland China is encouraging is whether the figure stays out of six figures for the remainder of this month - that's the next two weeks. It would mark a big change from the previous exponential regime.

The less good news is that the reported cases for the rest of the world are still moving upward at a similar rate, just four weeks behind mainland China's. Since I have absolutely no faith at all that the rest of the world is going to invest even a fraction of the economic hurt that China has volunteered for, I don't see that situation improving at all.

[Bryn Mawr]

If you take out the cases on the cruise liner where does that put the RoW figures?

From a pool of less than four thousand people having an infection rate of one in ten gives them half of the RoW cases.

Whether it’s really impossible to isolate patients in that environment or whether they are handling it badly it is a massive distortion of the figures that, even in the short term, is self limiting.

[Saint_]

Here's a projection for you, from what I can see the Death Rate is approximately 5.7%

If everyone in the United Kingdom got it (66.44 Million), that wold be 3,787,000 dead.

If everyone in the United States got it (325.2 million), that would be 18, 536,400 dead.

But let's shoot for the moon... (as in we'll be living there if a plague hits us worse than this!)

If everyone in the world gets it (7.7 Billion...amazing, isn't it?), that would be 438,900,000 dead.

A half-billion people dead.



That sure would break the Spanish Flu's record of 18 million, wouldn't it?

[spot]

That is, I suspect, an overestimate. I think if you factor in more and more experience of treating the disease you'll divide everything there by a factor of ten. Or, who knows, it might go away of its own accord, but I'd not hold my breath waiting.

Will it spread worldwide? Probably it will.

You did have a civil war once, you know. This might be a similar scale to that, and you got over it. At least for once it's not your politicians or police who will decide who ends up dead.

[spot]

Bryn Mawr;1530535 wrote: Whether it’s really impossible to isolate patients in that environment or whether they are handling it badly it is a massive distortion of the figures that, even in the short term, is self limiting.


You're quite right, but you're looking at just one source of distortion. The fever checking of international travellers at airports must be having a huge effect in the other direction too, and if the disease fires up inside any country those checks will disappear from the equation locally. I'm not going to try to calculate what can only be unknowns but I do suggest there are huge variations affecting the Rest of the World figures.

[Bryn Mawr]

Saint_;1530537 wrote: Here's a projection for you, from what I can see the Death Rate is approximately 5.7%

If everyone in the United Kingdom got it (66.44 Million), that wold be 3,787,000 dead.

If everyone in the United States got it (325.2 million), that would be 18, 536,400 dead.

But let's shoot for the moon... (as in we'll be living there if a plague hits us worse than this!)

If everyone in the world gets it (7.7 Billion...amazing, isn't it?), that would be 438,900,000 dead.

A half-billion people dead.



That sure would break the Spanish Flu's record of 18 million, wouldn't it?




It’s worse than that and it’s not as bad.

It’s worse than that in that it’s 5% of the total cases but the majority of those cases are still in progress and some of those who are still ill will also die. The current death rate within completed cases (dead plus recovered) is 15% which, if continued, would triple your figures.

It’s not as bad in that these figures include the first couple of months where they did not know what they were dealing with and were using the wrong treatment so the figures are not representative of the current situation. If you look at the data series the d / (d+r) figure has been dropping consistently.

[spot]

I'm not prone to criticizing, but this Diamond Princess farrago was plainly not well managed. 600+ positive tests?

From the start, experts raised questions about quarantine on the ship. Passengers weren’t confined to their rooms until 5 February. The day before, as officials screened them, onboard events continued, including dances, quiz games and an exercise class, one passenger said.

A number of readers have asked about the air conditioning employed on the ship, and whether this could have contributed to the spread of the virus.

Previously health authorities said the air conditioning was not a problem. However, Princess Cruises’ executive vice-president, Rai Caluori ,said that, “in an abundance of caution”, the amount of fresh air going through the system was maximised.

Dr Richard Darwood, a medical director and specialist in travel medicine, told Metro.co.uk: “If air is being ducted between one part of the ship to another then that could possibly be a factor.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... 3324745f63




The cruise ship industry may well find bookings down for the rest of the year. Given the inanity of the entire concept, that wouldn't bother me in the slightest.

South Korea confirmed 20 new cases in the country, taking the total infected to 51.


So. We can now start saying pandemic? We can agree the South Korean authorities aren't quite in the same league as the Chinese when it comes to sorting out their local outbreak?

The coronavirus outbreak has temporarily reduced China’s CO2 emissions by a quarter, according to analysis by Carbon Brief.

Electricity demand and industrial output remain far below usual levels after authorities introduced stringent measures to stop the spread of the disease.

Daily data of coal use at power stations is at a four-year low, while oil refinery operating rates in Shandong province are at the lowest level since 2015, the report said.


They're not doing things by halves over there.

[spot]

And indeed since the reset of the mainland China reported cases, the number of reported cases has dropped daily. That's the sixth consecutive day downward. A very impressive achievement.

[spot]

The Rest of the World figure is going up a hundred a day recently, and none of that is related to cruises. Much relates to South Korea.

In South Korea, prime minister Chung Se-kyun said the country was entering an emergency phase following a surge in infections that has been linked to a controversial church.

Mass gatherings have been banned, and all kindergartens and libraries closed in Daegu, a city that is home to 2.5 million people and lies two hours from Seoul. Soldiers in the city have also been forbidden from leaving their barracks after several military personnel tested positive.

A further 52 new cases were reported by officials on Friday, bringing the national total of confirmed patients to 156. Most are concentrated in Daegu, where a wave of infections have been linked to a 61-year-old woman, known as “Patient 31”. The patient is reported to have attended a church, an incident health officials have described as a “super-spreading event”.

More than 400 members of the church, a branch of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, which is often accused of being a cult, are showing symptoms of the disease. Tests were still ongoing, according to the city’s mayor, Kwon Young-jin.

On Friday, the city’s streets were mostly deserted, as people were urged to stay at home and wear masks, even indoors. Military medical staff are also being deployed to Daegu and neighbouring Cheongdo county, and isolation facilities are being created.

“It’s like someone dropped a bomb in the middle of the city,” resident Kim Geun-woo, 28, told Reuters by telephone. “It looks like a zombie apocalypse.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... na-prisons




Indonesia, of course, is still totally free of the disease. It will go up like a bonfire when they finally take their heads out of the sand.

[spot]

Dates for your calendar.

In 2020, Easter Sunday falls on April 12. It's free to attend all the masses at the Vatican (Palm Sunday Mass, Chrismal Mass on Holy Thursday, Papal Mass on Good Friday, Holy Saturday Mass and Easter Sunday Mass).

Passover in 2020 will start on Thursday, the 9th of April (9/4/2020) and will continue for 7 days until Wednesday, the 15th of April. Jerusalem is a popular destination for Passover and the city welcomes its guests with an amazing array of activities and events.

Buddha's Birthday in 2020 is on the Thursday, 7th of May. Buddhist temples are decorated with flags and flowers. The devotees are expected to assemble in temples before dawn. The ceremonial rituals like hoisting the Buddhist flag and the bathing of the Lord Buddha are done. The monks chant the hymns of the holy triple gem: The Buddha, The Dharma (his teachings) and The Sangha (his disciples). In evening, various candlelit processions are organized in the streets.

Hajj 2020 will commence from the evening of Tuesday, July 28, 2020 and will continue till the evening of Sunday, August 2, 2020.

And then the Mumbai Ganesh Festival, August 22-September 1, 2020.

Might we cancel religious gatherings for 2020 please?

[Bryn Mawr]

spot;1530660 wrote: And indeed since the reset of the mainland China reported cases, the number of reported cases has dropped daily. That's the sixth consecutive day downward. A very impressive achievement.


Have you noticed that Hubei have stopped reporting clinical cases but the numbers have not reduced at any point.

[spot]

Bryn Mawr;1530721 wrote: Have you noticed that Hubei have stopped reporting clinical cases but the numbers have not reduced at any point.


No, I'm not sure where to look for that.

I did notice "China is planning a bigger trial for anti-malaria drug chloroquine phosphate after clinical trials in Beijing and Guangdong Province showed initial positive results for 135 patients in treating the virus." though. At https://www.investors.com/news/virus-ko ... ei-update/ - I have a pack of that in the lab somewhere.

[Bryn Mawr]

spot;1530725 wrote: No, I'm not sure where to look for that.

I did notice "China is planning a bigger trial for anti-malaria drug chloroquine phosphate after clinical trials in Beijing and Guangdong Province showed initial positive results for 135 patients in treating the virus." though. At https://www.investors.com/news/virus-ko ... ei-update/ - I have a pack of that in the lab somewhere.


During 10–18 February 2020, the data includes the cases in Hubei that were not tested for the virus but clinically diagnosed based on medical imaging showing signs of pneumonia.[1]

The clinically diagnosed data was also separately available for 10-11 February 2020.[2]

Data since 19 Feb include tested cases only, as the new NHC guidelines removed the category.[3]


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_ ... statistics

[spot]

Bryn Mawr;1530729 wrote: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_ ... statistics


I'd not seen that page before, it has some good tables on it.

[Bryn Mawr]

A sudden and unexpected twenty new cases in the USA.

Those and the continuing explosion in South Korea account for almost all of the new cases over the past two days.

[LarsMac]

spot;1529999 wrote: The issue of mortality is an odd one. If ten percent of the people entering hospital come out as corpses then the initial temptation might be to say there's a 10% mortality, but perhaps only the most unwell people have gone in to begin with. Maybe there's ten times as many people who catch the disease but don't get admitted and just recover, in which case the mortality rate is better expressed as 1%. You pays your money and you takes your chances.


That is actually the weak link in the whole process. People can very likely contract the thing, but have a "mild case" of it. Much like any of the other respiratory bugs floating around. I think someone suggested that the ones who actually report to health care providers and recieve a diagnosis may be as low as ten percent of the actual cases of exposure.

The undiagnosed "Carriers" then go on with their daily activities, sharing the thing with co-workers, shop attendants and friends, Church members, and the like.



I'm not really worried for myself, as I have a fully functional immune system. But, my wife and her sister both have somewhat less sturdy systems, and are more susceptable to such attacks.

[LarsMac]

Bryn Mawr;1530743 wrote: A sudden and unexpected twenty new cases in the USA.

Those and the continuing explosion in South Korea account for almost all of the new cases over the past two days.


Most of the new cases in the US appear to be "refugees" from the Diamond Princess.

11 were transported to the University of Nebraska medical Center in Ashland, NE.

Thee is a new isolation center there, specifically designed for infectious diseases.

[spot]

A spokesman for the Foreign Office said: “The welfare of all British nationals is of the highest priority to the UK government.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... oll-latest




Oh goodness me. Oh what cobblers. That's as grotesque a lie as you could hope to see in a month of Sundays.

[spot]

The struggle in mainland China just turned in zero new cases over a 24 hour period. The effort being focused there must be astonishing.

[LarsMac]

spot;1530847 wrote: The struggle in mainland China just turned in zero new cases over a 24 hour period. The effort being focused there must be astonishing.


Italy, on the other hand,...

[spot]

LarsMac;1530855 wrote: Italy, on the other hand,...


Ah. Venice. The place I'm meant to be spending Easter.

Perhaps it will thin the crowds?

As for the number of cases in Italy and Iran today, the number of deaths reported can extrapolate back if we assume the same shape of spread as the first few weeks in China.

Iran, on that basis, has between 500 and 2000 cases, nowhere near the claim of 66.

Italy would have around 300, very close to the claimed 219.

Indonesia, of course, still has no cases at all. I would not want to be on holiday in Jakarta at the moment.

[spot]

Well done the Chinese.






The red is Mainland China, blue is the rest of the world, the yellow is what an exponential spread looks like.

[Betty Boop]

Yikes, Tenerife too. Wonder how many were there for half term.

[LarsMac]

Right-wing radio host Rush Limbaugh claimed on his show Monday that the potentially lethal coronavirus afflicting several countries is nothing more than a “common cold” blown out of proportion by the media to take down President Donald Trump ― even as he also asserted it was a “bioweapon” created by China in a laboratory.

“It looks like the coronavirus is being weaponized as yet another element to bring down Donald Trump,” Limbaugh said at the start of his lengthy, misinformation-filled rant.

“Now, I want to tell you the truth about the coronavirus. ... I’m dead right on this. The coronavirus is the common cold, folks.”

Rush Limbaugh Claims The 'Common Cold' Coronavirus Is An Effort To ‘Get Trump’

[spot]

Tom Cruise has been forced to hole up in a luxury hotel in Venice after the filming of Mission: Impossible 7 was halted after an outbreak of coronavirus in Italy, DailyMail.com has learned. Cruise, who arrived in Venice on February 20, is now stuck at the luxurious Hotel Gritti Palace until March 1, awaiting a decision on the future of the project.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... paign=1490




I doubt it's true - it's the Daily Mail, after all. Swiping at Hollywood is fun though.

Brave Sir Robin ran away.

Bravely ran away, away.

When danger rears it's ugly head

He bravely turned his tail and fled.

Yes Brave Sir Robin turned about

He gallantly chickened out.

Bravely taking to his feet

He beat a very brave retreat.

Oh bravest of the brave, Sir Robin.

[LarsMac]

so, three of the top ten regions for deaths are NOT in Mainland China, now.

Iran, Italy ans South Korea are coming up on the inside lane.

[LarsMac]

Another useful site if you want to keep track of the corona bug.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... ronavirus/

A lot of interesting data.

[spot]

US President Trump has appointed his Vice-President Mike Pence to coordinate the government response to the coronavirus outbreak.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51654494




Come on, that's pretty funny. Vice President Pence is stiffed whether he succeeds or he fails. The words "poisoned chalice" come to mind, as might President Trump's own words on the subject of appointing non-medical health czars: "zero experience in the medical area and zero experience in infectious disease control".

On Wednesday, the White House deputy press secretary, Judd Deere, said on Twitter that a report the White House is considering appointing a coronavirus czar “is not true!”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -questions




As Tom Lehrer once put it, "Second fiddle's a hard part, I know / When they don't even give you a bow".

[magentaflame]

Plus the fact he screwed up during the HIV epidemic. Plus...I want to know how someone gets this bug without having contact with another person or in a place where the bug doesn't excist. Australia is apparently preparing for a pandemic.....(from our prime minister . but they are going to lift the travel bans? None of this is making sense to me . I don't know...for fear of being called a conpirisist this all seems to be a little staged.

[spot]

Your travel ban is focused on a small subset of travellers who are most risky. Your airports are still bringing in most of the visitors and homecomers you usually expect, you get container ships, festering cruise liners, you're not isolated at all. Greenland is isolated, the virus might take years to get there, but Australia is a near-future event, the existing travel ban might buy you a few weeks.

[tabby]

I ran across this site today and found it interesting:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Definitely a substantial amount of information!

[spot]

tabby;1531030 wrote: I ran across this site today and found it interesting:




That's well laid out and up to date. I notice Indonesia has finally used a test kit and found two positives. I expect they could find another few thousand if they wanted to know the real state of the nation.

Here's the current state on my summary spreadsheet, if the blue line doesn't bend flatter I think it will show over a million confirmed cases worldwide before the end of the month, one tenth of which would have been in China.








The red is Mainland China, blue is the rest of the world, the yellow is what an exponential spread looks like. That blue line is extremely exponential. The blue line is a hundred times magnified compared with the red China line so it can be compared, but we'll not need the magnification soon.

[Saint_]

Well it seems to be only killing older adults with pre-existing medical conditions...LIKE ME!!

[spot]

Given that the only possible reason to test anyone for coronavirus is to help protect the population at large, and confers no benefit on the individual being tested - is it actually true that people in America have to pay to be tested? Someone yesterday mentioned $3,000?

Why?

It's so unlikely that it may actually be fake news, I've no idea. That's why I'm asking.

[LarsMac]

Well, I am going with fake news.

Though, in this country, anything is possible.

The news that it now appears to be well-entrenched in the Seattle area gave me a bit of a fright.

This bug is likely wandering about the entire continent, by now.

[spot]

LarsMac;1531063 wrote: Well, I am going with fake news.

Though, in this country, anything is possible.

The news that it now appears to be well-entrenched in the Seattle area gave me a bit of a fright.

This bug is likely wandering about the entire continent, by now.


China has started inbound border restrictions. Given the effort they've made I can't blame them.

As for America, President Trump has set up his scapegoat already and I've no doubt he'd be happy to see the back of his Vice President before November.

[spot]

LarsMac;1531063 wrote: Well, I am going with fake news.

Though, in this country, anything is possible.




This might be it -

High medical costs make the virus particularly problematic - many Americans avoid doctor's visits because of unaffordable charges.

Last month, a Florida man with symptoms had a coronavirus test and was handed a $3,270 bill from his insurance company.

Taking sick leave is another concern. Not all employers offer paid leave and workplace culture often pushes employees to go to work ill.

This could contribute to the virus spreading, as infected people may not show significant symptoms for up to 14 days.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51649897

[LarsMac]

I am flying through Chicago, today. Not relishing being around several thousand of my fellow travelers for a three hour stopover.