ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

Post by spot »

Jester;837199 wrote: Posturing... then I'm done if thats what you think Im doing... Its getting more and more difficult to post a reply around here..:mad:I've no idea how the thread got onto population densities either, it's got nothing at all to do with the original post.

Presumably you agree that air pollution - by which I mean particles, carbon dioxide and methane - has been rising for the last two hundred years? The recorded values for carbon dioxide for the last 400,000 years vary between 200 and 280 parts per million until 200 years ago, they're now at 380 and rising fast. Are we agreed with at least those facts?
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

Post by Clodhopper »

Jester: Not tarred and feathered. Tar is sooo mucky. Would you setlle for mud? ;)

Seriously, I know what you're going to say (I think) and you'll just be disagreed with.
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

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Jester;837220 wrote: A complete impossiblity...(but I suppose I'd be tared and feathered for defying it with religious opinion)...

I'll allow you the delusions of course.


The thing is that once in a blue moon I try getting a thread to run about a topic I'd like to see discussed rationally and never once have I succeeded on ForumGarden. I thought my opening post was potentially interesting. Never mind.

So, you can ask for evidence that the composition of the atmosphere has stayed in bounds for at least the last 400,000 years but I can't answer because God created the earth 6,000 years ago. And you're not posturing and you really did read my original post.

You were, if I remember, leaving the thread.
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spot;836563 wrote: The entire population of the USA could live on the Falkland Islands if it were merely a question of space. There, I just fixed a whole bunch of the world's problems in one sentence.


But Zanzibar is getting a touch too small nowadays :-)
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

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Jester;837220 wrote: A complete impossiblity...(but I suppose I'd be tared and feathered for defying it with religious opinion)...

I'll allow you the delusions of course.


I can re-word my question to fit in with your fundamentalist belief in the literal inerrancy of the Christian bible.

The composition of the air doesn't vary significantly round the planet so where the measurements were taken doesn't matter a lot but they're from Antarctic core samples. Yes they're measurements of real air samples and yes they really go back through 400,000 cycles. The most recent cycles can be seen by observation to be annual. That interpretation cane be placed on the first 6,000 cycles. The remainder of the cyclic record is a part of God's constructed planet and was all made in a day.

For every year in the entire biblical history of the earth up until 200 years ago the trapped air samples for each given year have been measured to contain between 200 and 280 parts per million carbon dioxide.

Presumably you agree that air pollution - by which I mean particles, carbon dioxide and methane - has been rising for the last two hundred years? The recorded values for carbon dioxide from the beginning of biblical time vary between 200 and 280 parts per million until 200 years ago, they're now at 380 and rising fast. Are we agreed with at least those facts?
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

Post by 911 »

OK, don't know why these people can't write in English, but from what I gathered from this article, this has been going on for some time. Hot-cold, hot-cold. We just happen to be in the hot stage now.



http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/ge2003/ge2003.html

Or, I'm a 'tard and don't understand good English. :confused::)
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Post by spot »

Wonderful piece of evidence 911.

I very carefully stated in my OP that "Everything to do with the average world temperature depends on the condition of the atmosphere and on the absolute amount of energy being put out by the Sun. Nothing else comes into the balance". Also relevant is my suggestion that "Global Warming, if it's thought of as an accumulation of heat year on year, is completely false". All I've argued is that the climate is headed toward triggering a positive feedback loop which won't be reversible on any human time-scale, after which the world's average annual temperature will have taken a hard jolting shift upward and which we'll not be able to shift back to where it came from. The total melting of the Arctic ice would be one such jolt and I suggested a date of 2013 for that happening on the basis of recent trends.

Nobody seems to want to take issue with any of that for some reason.
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Post by Bryn Mawr »

Jester;837132 wrote: My very unscientific prediction:

Global warming is a farce, over all its a total invention of the greenies trying to subvert, limit, and other wise by into the myth that I call over population.

I dont think mankind has even scratched the surface of the ability of the earth to provide for its own. And I don't believe weve even used up a 1/100th of its capabilities.

In forty years the 'science' behind the global warming myth will have come full circle and we'll be 'cooling'... yet again...

What are we at now? 6.6 Billion I think.

I have a stat somewhere that Ive posted here before about population myth... basicly it says that at the 1980 world population factor all the people in the world could stand on 2.5 square feet of land and fit into a city HALF the size of Jacksonville Florida, now the population hasnt doubled since 1980, so we'd still be able to fit in the city standing upright, now Im not a scientist, but folks it puts things into perspective doesnt it, if all of us can fit in Jacksonville Florida, and the rest of the world is 'vacant' then thats a small, small, small impact on the earth.

I still believe, given out impact of all the stuff we make (houses, concrete, asphalt, etc) that we barely scratch the earths surface, humans cannot make an impact on the earth large enough to change global climate. If the earth climate is changing we aint the cause.


Interesting problem - taking your figure of 2.5 square feet per person then, at a current population of 7.8 billion, humanity takes up a square just over twenty six miles on a side. London as near as damnit.

However, it is not particularly the houses, concrete and asphalt that have an effect on the climate - you are right there, it's all too small to be noticed beyond locally. The problem is the twenty seven billion tonnes of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere each year.
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Might I mention that 2% of the entire surface of England is paved over?
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Here is one study from China that shows the effect on urbanization and the change in surrounding temperature. The study was conducted by NASA, and they studied how the changing landscape showed an increase in temperature. With the deforestation, change of the natural land patterns in exchange for concrete/blacktop, the study shows a definite temperature change in the area. The long term effects on the global climate patterns is not suggested, since the study needs to be of longer duration for a theory on that effect.

http://gtresearchnews.gatech.edu/newsre ... limate.htm
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Post by 911 »

spot;836493 wrote: I just checked - that was in 1798! Gosh you're aging well!

Thank you. I didn't think you noticed.

There used to be a word which meant "the use of contraceptives", it was neomalthusianism. It was Marie Stopes who saved the industrial world from overpopulation, the rest of the planet still relies on tuberculosis and malaria.

So, women were using contraceptives in 1798? Did the Pope know about this? Why don't you tell me, without me having to do the research, when women started using birth control on a regular basis? If I recall, and I could be wrong since you were so kind to point out that I am over 300 years old and senelity, at best, is setting in; it seems it became a common thing around the mid to end of the 1970's.

Your other bit though, that people were estimating that by 2008 none of us would survive because of pollution, that bit I find extremely hard to believe. As a prediction for the future I'd say it's still valid but nobody, surely, ever pitched the date at 2008.


I forget you take things so literal. No. I never said 2008. I said, by now. Meaning ten years ago to ten years from now. Obviously, that didn't happen, which is my point.
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Post by Bryn Mawr »

spot;837270 wrote: Might I mention that 2% of the entire surface of England is paved over?


And a large amount of flooding is caused by the fact.

The albedo is not, however, significantly different to the surroundings so no effect there. The overall reduction in evaporation could possibly be a factor but I have my doubts.
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spot;837268 wrote: Wonderful piece of evidence 911.

I very carefully stated in my OP that "Everything to do with the average world temperature depends on the condition of the atmosphere and on the absolute amount of energy being put out by the Sun. Nothing else comes into the balance". Also relevant is my suggestion that "Global Warming, if it's thought of as an accumulation of heat year on year, is completely false". All I've argued is that the climate is headed toward triggering a positive feedback loop which won't be reversible on any human time-scale, after which the world's average annual temperature will have taken a hard jolting shift upward and which we'll not be able to shift back to where it came from. The total melting of the Arctic ice would be one such jolt and I suggested a date of 2013 for that happening on the basis of recent trends.

Nobody seems to want to take issue with any of that for some reason.


Oh, I see :-5 DUH! You're saying that mankind has no effect on global warming at all.

So, are you taking solar flares and sun spots into consideration in your argument also? I would think that would be a variable. Have solar flares increased in the last 100 years? Seems I've seen something to that effect.
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911;837274 wrote: So, women were using contraceptives in 1798? Did the Pope know about this? Why don't you tell me, without me having to do the research, when women started using birth control on a regular basis? If I recall, and I could be wrong since you were so kind to point out that I am over 300 years old and senelity, at best, is setting in; it seems it became a common thing around the mid to end of the 1970's.


You're thinking of just one form of contraception, the pill (wiki: The FDA approved the birth control pill in 1960. Until 1972, with the passage of the 26th Amendment, "the Pill" was only available to married women and single women older than 21). The ancient Egyptians were using barrier methods BC and nobody's stopped since, though murderers like George Bush have prevented tens of millions of other people from making use of the option.
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911;837279 wrote: So, are you taking solar flares and sun spots into consideration in your argument also? I would think that would be a variable. Have solar flares increased in the last 100 years? Seems I've seen something to that effect.
My thinking was guided by http://www.internationalreporter.com/Ne ... rming.html (or at least the BBC version of it I listened to last week).the IPCC point out that the contribution from greenhouse gas emissions outweighs the effect of solar variability by a factor of 13 to one.The news was mostly about the conclusion of the UK group into cosmic ray generation of cloud cover reflecting the sun's heat but the article here is more general. Solar flares cause the cosmic ray storms which were being studied. I can't think of any other way in which a solar flare could affect the weather on Earth, they don't cause any variability in the energy leaving the Sun.
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Jester;837284 wrote: Spot to clarify, I did read your original post, I started down the path of reading the rest, when I got a few pages in I said...to my self... Self?, How come you just dont cut to the chase and tell'em what you 'predict' and my Self argued back and said, becaus if you don't have solid evidence to include you aint crap according to the forum garden rage...I would have hoped that, having read the OP which was "desperate for someone to give me reasons why something I've said is inaccurate", you'd have given me a reason why something I'd said was inaccurate. But apparently not.
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I'm not sure how else I can put such a question but as I say, I've never successfully managed it in the past. There's something about a forum which prevents an enquiry from generating an answer, I've no idea how to go about it and I've had a lot of practice trying. Perhaps it was just a silly question in the first place.
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There is so much misdirection.

Smokers are made to feel like pariahs by people who own one SUV for every driving age adult in the house. How many people who are concerned about the environment bought a bike instead of a car? Forest. Trees.

I can't stop society from destroying the environment. I can choose to not own a car.

I personally enjoy warmer weather but the pollution is killing us all.
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Clodhopper;835428 wrote: A lot of the problem with people's acceptance of the reality of Global Warming and how serious it really is, is that people don't understand numbers with more than about four noughts behind them. I know I don't, but I know I don't, if you see what I mean.

I've heard people saying, "Yeah, but it has all happened before - look, 6,000,000 years ago the earth was 4 degrees Centigrade hotter than it is now. What's the problem?" and they happily imagine palm tree fringed beaches on Scotland's West coast...The problem is the speed of the change. There's not enough time for vegetation to migrate away from the overheating areas, and new forms of life to evolve to exploit them.

Galbally: Thanks for the succinct explanation.

spot: Thanks for raising this.
Another thing people aren't grasping is how quickly mankind has cleared the land and replaced it's natural forestation with paved roads, homes, fields and farmland. Man has been on the earth's time line for just one moment. Litterally, you could miss us with the a blink of an eye. Yet, we have scraped, scalded, slashed and soiled this planet with everything you can imagine--in a fraction of the time the dinosaur lived. The methane alone, released from the livestock we raise for food WORLDWIDE could be the cause for concern, maybe even the culprit with the ozone hole. Babies being born in the U.S. are testing positive for chemicals found in every day plastics (sorry, senior moment. Can't recall the name of the chemicals) one that causes small amphibians to change gender, young girls to grow breasts and pubic hair at nine and ten and sterility in men.

Add to that our failure to admit our culpability worldwide and I would not blame Mother Earth for getting rid of us..
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double helix;837428 wrote: and I would not blame Mother Earth for getting rid of us..There's another of these curious verbal constructs implying conscious sentient action on the part of the planet. Is that what you're saying or am I reading it wrong?
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We don't need to wait to see the effect on the landscape or other life forms to know if we are creating harm. Look at the human race. We are sick. We are poisoning ourselves and everyone thinks they can find some magic pill that allows them to continue their lifestyle and still be healthy.

I meet people every day who think the new weight loss pill will allow them to keep eating whatever they want and still lose weight. So it is with the environment. People want to keep living their lives of convenience without the consequences. The only way to mobilize a successful effort would be to come up with an atomizer that people can spray every time they use something toxic. The environmental magic pill.

If we don't start taking our own personal health more seriously how can we begin to think that the planet's health has a chance?
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Post by Bryn Mawr »

spot;837483 wrote: There's another of these curious verbal constructs implying conscious sentient action on the part of the planet. Is that what you're saying or am I reading it wrong?


To the extent that any control system is "intelligent". It is not uncommon to say that a control system "selects" the level(s) it is controlling.

Certainly there is a control system built into the ecosphere - not consciously, but the many feedback loops that control almost all aspects of the ecosphere undeniably exist. To that extent, Gaia exists. Whether it is wrong to personify the system or whether it is just convenient I leave to your judgement.
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Jester;837922 wrote: I think the problem there is that not all of us are sick, we dont all see the need, for the most part most of us live fairly normal lives up to death... I think we just dont see the need generally speaking.

I think there are parts of the world that are polluted, no doubt some places here in the US are terribly polluted. I hear the 'Ohio Valley' has the highest incident of Breast Cancer than anywhere else in the world... some places blame that on pollutants... which is arguable, because it may be that our high rates of processed foods contribute as well, as lack of exercise etc...

I think folks assume that there are so many causative factors, and 'you have to die of something' coupled with the idea that 'I wont get sick', makes us negate the levels of the scaring of the earth.

My position has always been to be a wise steward of whats been given us. Its how I was raised and it has a lot to do with living of our own land, if food disnt grow we didnt live. but there have been enough scientific 'scares' that turn up false that sends massive confusion to the avaerage american at least, we dont know who to believe... so many agenda's, so many special interest, so many companies trying to make a buck. Its confusing.


Whilst there are many individual humans who are not sick, we only have one planet and it *is* sick.

The main cause of confusion of the average American is that the subject has been turned into a political football. This is not Republican against Democrat, Al Gore is not the architect of Global Warming. This is our children's lives and the survival of the species.
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Bryn Mawr;838087 wrote: To the extent that any control system is "intelligent". It is not uncommon to say that a control system "selects" the level(s) it is controlling.

Certainly there is a control system built into the ecosphere - not consciously, but the many feedback loops that control almost all aspects of the ecosphere undeniably exist. To that extent, Gaia exists. Whether it is wrong to personify the system or whether it is just convenient I leave to your judgement.


There are degrees of complexity but I have seen no evidence ever that "I would not blame Mother Earth for getting rid of us.." can carry any reflection of reality, all I can see it doing is carrying a lie. It's why, every time I've seen such a phrase, I've asked for an explanation from whichever poster wrote it, and so far I've never had a response.
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spot;838111 wrote: There are degrees of complexity but I have seen no evidence ever that "I would not blame Mother Earth for getting rid of us.." can carry any reflection of reality, all I can see it doing is carrying a lie. It's why, every time I've seen such a phrase, I've asked for an explanation from whichever poster wrote it, and so far I've never had a response.


No, Gaia / Mother Earth is not sentient and will not take a concious decision to "get rid of us".

The control systems, however, are close to several tipping points. Triggering any of those tipping points would have the effect of making our current civilisation untenable and, very possibly, would include the human race in the mass extinction event that would soon follow.

To this extent, Mother Earth would get rid of us.
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Jester;838127 wrote: Well, then what needs to happen is make the science simple, like Spot did.What I thought I'd done was to make a point I've never seen made before, that the heat gain and loss from the planet is massive and continuous which makes the average temperature for a week or a month or a year solely a function of current conditions, and nothing to do with non-existent heat build-up. It's obviously true, obviously relevant and I've never seen it mentioned.

You've still not decided whether the current carbon dioxide excess levels in the entire atmosphere are man-made and (in your case, with a 6,000 planetary history) higher than they've ever been in all history. (For the non-fundamentalists the ice core history of directly measured carbon dioxide goes back 400,000 years and the inferred concentration (from, for example, sea cores) go back a lot further and the current levels are without precedent over the last 50 million years). The current carbon dioxide excess levels balance, as a sum, with the mined coal and burned forests and pumped oil added up since industrialization less what's been slowly absorbed into the oceans. Would it help if I produced that sum as well? It's not rocket science, this carbon dioxide excess argument.
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I don't agree that most people aren't sick.

How many children are on prescribed drugs? How prevalent is asthma now? Where did fibromyalgia and chronic fatigue syndrome come from? How many people take prozac?
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Jester;838127 wrote: 'if we hit the wrong trigger', which you claim is nearly ready to fire out of control 'we are doomed'? I dont believe that. Those are scare tactics, just tell the truth and dont sugar coat it nor try to hype it up. (and I'm not refering to you persay Bryn, you are typically very reasonable about such things.)


These positive feedback loops that rush the balance from one low value to one high value, around which the weather fluctuates, are quite real and can be seen in history. If you want to be fundamentalist about the age of the planet, they can be seen as a warning in the way the Lord formed the planet on his day of creation since the evidence is there and He can't have just put it there by accident.

The Clathrate Gun is a good example, it's not the melting of the Arctic ice cap (which I offered as the first big visible feedback event and which I'm telling you I think will have completely melted by Summer 2013, it's not a doomsday event but it's pretty major and will have easily detectable temperature effects), the Clathrate Gun is a major potential calamity just sat there on the continental sea shelf and in Siberia, just waiting for the local temperature to go over a trigger value (around 10 degrees Fahrenheit in the case of the sea clathrates). Once they rise above that local temperature they bubble out into the air and stay there. There's more Clathrate carbon than there is current carbon from all sources in the air now, and once it starts bubbling out it keeps bubbling faster and faster. It's a runaway effect from a positive feedback loop, and it's probably happened before. The stuff's definitely there to bubble out, people have been and found it. and made good estimates of how much there is of it.
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About the science aspect of the thread... I have to admit I don't have much temptation to analyse it. I read spot's OP, which I don't have any objections to, as meaning that Earth's temperature is in constant flux. We can alter the temperature by how much pollution we create but it will be restored if we eliminate the pollution. We may all die before we correct the pollution problem but the Earth will continue to warm and cool every day.

We might turn the Earth's surface into a scarred monstrosity with our pavement and clear cutting but we aren't about to cause its disintegration.

I've been responding to the title regarding FG predictions. I predict that we will pollute ourselves into a health crisis long before we decide the Earth is going to be destroyed. As our offspring becomes weaker and weaker our species will have to either do something or die.
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In the case of people I'd have thought what they eat and drink forms the major part of their problem, rather than what they breathe. They have absolute control over that, though finding water without contaminants is a harder job than it ought to be. Next in line for people fixing their own condition is the extent to which they exercise and think constructive thoughts. Or is it harder than I'm suggesting?
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koan
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

Post by koan »

spot;838165 wrote: In the case of people I'd have thought what they eat and drink forms the major part of their problem, rather than what they breathe. They have absolute control over that, though finding water without contaminants is a harder job than it ought to be. Next in line for people fixing their own condition is the extent to which they exercise and think constructive thoughts. Or is it harder than I'm suggesting?


It's not just the water.

As more and more is understood about the mechanics of oxygen deprivation, it is becoming clear that many more mechanisms are being triggered as a result of this. Thus, the implications here are very different, when resultant damage cause by episode(s) of chronic sub-lethal (acute) exposures are taken into consideration, the stakes are raised as they include damage that are potentially serious, long term and ultimately irreparable.

Exposure potentially leads to many resultant problems, such as chronic fatigue, multiple chemical sensitivity, fibromyalgia, neurological deterioration, auto-immune deficiency, arteriosclerosis and much more.

Some of these, where conventional medical practice have yet to openly embrace, where once many of these conditions were attributed to stress or psychological factors, new research are beginning to point to an environmental link and a physical cause for such conditions.

Environmental Toxins Foundation
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

Post by spot »

Jester;838225 wrote: I just cant take you at face value, usually my experince is there is a hidden agenda with you, its like playing chess with you, and I'm a checker player.:-3


All I'm doing here, and all I do elsewhere, is to go back to the point where our opinions part ways and say here's the first stage, if you can't swallow this bit then all the rest is out of reach entirely. I identify the difficulty and lay it out plainly. If you can accept that portion then I'll go on to a bit which would have been senseless without the first. It's not aggressive and it's not trickery, it's just me recognising a logical order to my argument and an awareness that only a small section of it is relevant at a time. This bit about the carbon dioxide content of the air for the last 200 years being outside the boundary it's been in for the last 400,000 years (or, in your terms, since the day of creation) is all there is, take it or leave it. If you take it then I'll try to get you to agree what the consequence of it is. Why it's happened and what caused it and what it's doing to weather systems.

Personally I'm more interested in how anyone can be so intransigent as not to accept the truth of the statement, given that it's direct measurement of the air itself as it was trapped in identifiable annual layers as distinct as tree rings.
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

Post by spot »

For anyone watching trends, the July Arctic ice coverage was the lowest since records began.

Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

Post by Bryn Mawr »

spot;1365203 wrote: For anyone watching trends, the July Arctic ice coverage was the lowest since records began.

Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis


Are you still predicting the summer of the year after next for the Arctic sea to be clear of pack-ice?

Always did look to be adventurous - it's obviously going to happen but so soon?
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Accountable
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

Post by Accountable »

I won't get into this, but I found something I think you all might enjoy.

David Christian: Big history | Video on TED.com

Don't worry, Ahso. Christian is his name, not necessarily his ideology. :yh_wink
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

Post by spot »

Bryn Mawr;1365225 wrote: Are you still predicting the summer of the year after next for the Arctic sea to be clear of pack-ice?

Always did look to be adventurous - it's obviously going to happen but so soon?It was a worst-case extrapolation and oddly enough I still think it's a viable one. The July conditions this year are appalling - the entire cover is a half of the thirty-year average, just over 4 units compared to the average 8 - and it still has a month to run before it starts growing again. And I still think that if in a couple of years the whole sheet collapses it will be an extremely good thing as far as wow get something done immediately is concerned.
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

Post by spot »

Here we are - mainstream commentThe last five summers are the five minimum ice extent summers on record [...] Some computer models forecast that the Arctic could be completely clear of summer sea ice within a decade, though others recently published say there may be high years and low years en route to the final disappearance.

BBC News - Arctic sea routes open as ice melts



That "though" is odd - the two statements seem consistent.
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

Post by Clodhopper »

It will pay those in the track of Irene to prepare for many more like her and worse. I think it a likely consequence of the climate destabilisation that is going on.

I am actually very concerned for New York at the moment. If the flooding gets to the power lines there might be real trouble.
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

Post by spot »

I've never lived less than 200 feet above sea level and I'm not sure I'd be keen to.

Hmm. I just checked, the Islington place was at 120 feet. If I'd been hit by a tidal surge there, a lot of other Londoners would have had their day ruined first.
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Clodhopper
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

Post by Clodhopper »

chuckle. At a measly 17 feet or so above sea level, and ten minutes' walk from the Thames, I'll be chatting to the fishies long before you. However, I reckon civilisation will be crumbling long before my house. I'm rather banking on being dead when it happens.

However, your elevation does make you more vulnerable to high winds, lightning strikes, and meteors. So I wouldn't abandon the tinfoil hat just yet. (I've fitted mine with a rubber ring, just to be on the safe side)
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