ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

Post by spot »

We've had various arguments about Global Warming on ForumGarden, I wonder whether I could talk people into discussing it from scratch rather than occupying their alloted trench and peering over the parapet waiting for the whistle to blow? Go on, just for once, a let's work it out rather than repeat what we've heard from the propagandists. It might be a way of bringing everyone to conclusions which we can at least see are self-induced rather than politically motivated, if we've seen the process by which we've arrived at them.

Tick these bits off until you disagree with one. I hope everyone can get to the end still agreeing but if not, say so and we'll know where we have to start discussing differences of fact.

We've got this spinning ball in space called The Earth, it's hot in the middle because it's a little bit radioactive.

Space has a background temperature due to the light of the stars, it's very cold.

We happen to be fairly close to a huge great ball of radiation, the Sun. Most of the energy coming off the Sun is light, just like if you had a radiative electric fire or a rotisserie and you toasted a marshmallow. We're the marshmallow.

Ignoring clouds and simplifying to make a point, the more a bit of the Earth is facing the Sun, the more that bit warms up. When it spins sufficiently far to be on the night side it loses heat by radiating low energy infra-red light back out into space. That's a daily cycle. Warmer, cooler, warmer, cooler. You go out an hour before dawn and you need a thick fleece on even at the tropics if it's a clear night. You go out at mid-day and you wear fewer layers of thinner material because the air's warmer and you absorb the sunshine.

I want to concentrate on that daily cycle initially, because everything I've read so far about global warming has concentrated on world temperatures averaged over all places over complete years. They're two different timescales.

Take a place on the equator at mid-spring when the Sun passes overhead at noon and make it a cloudless week. The difference between the shaded air and surface land temperature at an hour before sunset and an hour before sunrise is around 80 degrees Fahrenheit (45 degrees Celsius but we'll stick with Fahrenheit - you can convert by halving, I'm not being precise here). That's in 12 hours, a drop of roughly 6 degrees an hour of low-energy infra-red light (which is heat) radiating into space. More than that sets out, some gets reflected back by greenhouse gasses but 6 degrees an hour goes all the way and won't come back. That's the natural cooling rate for the planet when no heat's coming in from outside and the planet's at its hottest, 6 degrees an hour.

And that's happening everywhere, I just took that spring equator as an extreme. Every point on the planet is losing heat, day and night, at something less than 6 degrees an hour. When it's cloudy less escapes so it's milder. When it's already cooler than equatorial then the rate of energy loss is less - there's a formula for by how much, it's called a fourth power black body equation and I'm not going near it, that's what climate modelers use and I don't need it here. The essential detail is that between, say, 1/10th of a degree and 6 degrees an hour, there's a constant loss of heat from the surface of the Earth.

We know why we don't just die of cold. Every day the sun shines and more heat gets to the surface from the Sun's radiating than leaves because the Earth's radiating. The one place where that's not true, the pole furthest from the Sun, gets warmed up by transferred heat from the places where it is true, and it's only a small part of the planet. There's also that very very slow trickle of radiation heat escaping from inside the Earth but it's insignificant compared to these other energies we're looking at.

Let's do a thought experiment and switch the Sun off. There's no heat input from outside, just that constant loss of heat day and night that's always there, 6 degrees an hour when the surface is extremely hot down to 1/10th of a degree an hour where it's currently coldest. Even at that coldest place it's a loss of a couple of degrees a day. How long does it take to - for example - freeze the oxygen out of the air and leave no atmosphere at all? Even with the heat reservoir in the sea which slows the warming and slows the cooling during normal days, I'll take a guess. It's more than six months and less than six years.

End of experiment, the Sun's not gone out. The point remains though, that the Earth's natural reserve of heat (for want of a better expression) is let's take a figure in the middle, one year. One year, however hot things get through climate change, and all the earth's heat radiates out into space. It's doing that now, it did it last year, it'll do it again next year, the reason we don't turn to ice is that the Sun shines and pushes the same amount of heat into the planet. If it pushed more in one year, we'd get slightly warmer. If it pushed less in one year we'd get slightly colder. The Earth has absolutely no long-term reserves of heat, the thought experiment shows it doesn't. Global Warming, if it's thought of as an accumulation of heat year on year, is completely false. The Earth isn't accumulating excess heat. All of the heat we need for living here would disappear in a year if it weren't constantly being replaced. With or without the Sun shining we're losing exactly the same amount of heat as if it weren't there. With the Sun shining we get it replaced. If the earth were shielded from the Sun for even just a week the whole land surface would be as cold as the poles are now though the sea cools more slowly than that.

So, if there's absolutely no cumulative effect of heat, what on earth is Global Warming?

The more the air traps and reflects the heat loss, the slower the planet's heat escapes into space. The air traps and reflects that heat better as it gets more industrial effluent and more moisture in it. A balancing effect is that less Sun heat arrives if there's more clouds and bigger areas of ice worldwide. It's an unstable balance, push toward a higher average world temperature by trapping more heat and the ice tends to go, the more the ice goes the higher the average world temperature grows. That's one of the positive feedback loops and there are several. There are a few dampening feedback loops too.

Everything to do with the average world temperature depends on the condition of the atmosphere and on the absolute amount of energy being put out by the Sun. Nothing else comes into the balance. If it goes up and we lose the ice sheets then the whole system takes an upward jolt and rebalances at that higher state, and it will do the same with any other positive feedback system which the rising average temperature triggers. Similarly if we start cooling we could trigger positive cooling feedback systems.

The trend is toward higher average world temperatures because the trapping of heat is increasing. The trapping of heat is increasing because the industrial effluent content of the air is rising. Stopping the industrial effluent content of the air from rising isn't on anyone's agenda yet, all anyone's even talking about is stopping the rate at which it's getting worse.

That's my piece to start a discussion. I'm desperate for someone to give me reasons why something I've said is inaccurate.
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

Post by nvalleyvee »

This is my take on global warming.

IT HAPPENS EVERY CYCLE THE EARTH GETS INTO - 10,000, or 100,000 or 1,000,000 years. Get a grip!!!!!

What is wrong with you people! Have none of you looked at the history of the Earth?

This global warming? - supposedly caused by mankind can be found in the dirt and ice records of this EARTH!!!! OVER AND OVER AND OVER AGAIN!!!!

I'm sick and tired of this prediction. I live in the high desert. We had 5 years of drought and now we've had 3 years of monsoon. This rock we live upon has its own way of counterbalance and for us humans to think we have major effect on it is arrogant. Just flat arrogant.
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

Post by CARLA »

I agree and when Mother Earth if tired of us she will shake us off like flea's on a Dog. :-6

[QUOTE]This rock we live upon has its own way of counterbalance and for us humans to think we have major effect on it is arrogant. Just flat arrogant.[/QUOTE]
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

Post by Galbally »

Okay here we go again, I have looked at what spot said, in terms of general principals it seems sound to me, though I need to look more carefully at it, as its a complex post.

Firstly, I want to state quite clearly (as a scientist, because thats what I am) for those for whom the penny has not dropped, the planet is heating up due to massively elevated carbon dioxide levels in the upper atmosphere, that carbon dioxide has been produced by humans over the past 150 years, and the level of the CO2 we are emitting is still increasing, there is no sign than anyone is seriously going to deal with the issue, and climate change is, in any case, unavoidable at this stage, essentially its already too late. If we had perhaps started dealing with this around 1990 we may have had a chance, now, its too late. Deal with that, because that is the reality.

The consequence of this is that the global mean temperature of Planet Earth is going to increase by at a minimum 2 degrees centigade over the next 50-75 years, (but I think its more likely to be up nearer the 4 degrees mark), and its going to be extremely serious for every human on this planet in terms of climate impacts. Its got nothing to do with cycles of the sun, or ice ages, or any other misinformation put out by recalitrant governments and polluting industries, and if you are American and you think your government are being honest with you, they are not, they are well aware of the situation, but refuse to deal with it for political and commercial reasons.

The (generally) right wing US and UK economic commentators I have heard disucssing the situation frankly don't understand what they are talking about and are scientifically illiterate in general, their arguments are complete nonsense, and they should stick to discussing the collapse of their cherished equity markets (funny how they didn't see that coming either). Unlike them, and most people here I am an actual scientist and I work in this field, its happening, it is extremely serious, and we are not going to get away from it, so you should inure yourselves to that reality.

The term "global warming" and "climate change" to me are somewhat misleading, what we actually have is an increase in the radiation energy being trapped in the atmosphere because of the increasing greenhouse effect, and this manifests itself in the climate system as more heat energy primarily, but its not the only effect, and the heating is not uniform across the planet, a lot of the energy will also be used up in increased evaporation of water, the heating up of the oceans and their expansion, and very much increased storm frequency and severity, massively increased precipitation etc. The increasing temperature will not be felt uniformly across the surface of the planet, but will be highest at the poles (which are also the most sensitive to temperature change) and lowest around the tropics.

Also the Climate is not changing in some understandable way at the moment, it is destabilizing rapidly, and we don't know at what point a new equilibrium will be reached or where the climate is going, as the predictive models are already breaking down as the pace of destabilization accelerates year on year, and yes thats happening right now, 2008, the climate is undergoing a rapid destabilization and its rate of destabilization is increasing (and for anyone with a basic grasp of mathematics the consequences of that are self-explanatory), meanwhile the rate at which we emit Carbon dioxide is not decreasing in the slightest, it is still increasing year on year, and given what happened at Bali, that is not likely to change at any time soon, take some time to consider the implications.

The general conclusion given by the chair of the IPCC commitee on climate change (who was at a meeting I attended several months ago) was that the predictive scientific models are already breaking down, all the data being recieved is that the climate is destabilizing more rapidly than anyone believed possible, that the best case scenario picture that is being painted is very unlikely to be the real outcome of the rapid and abrupt climate destabilization processes we are witnessing.

It is also highly unlikely that world governments are going to make any serious attempts to actually reduce CO 2 emissions for at least the next 20 years (and he should know as he has to deal with these politicians on a weekly basis, and his opinion is that they just don't get it). It seems to me that they basically don't want to deal with the political cost. (regardless of their economic philosophy, China is now a bigger polluter than the US and the Chinese have no interest in tempering their breakneck economic growth based on coal for anyone).

All the worlds governments are run essentially by lawyers and economists who don't understand scientific or engineering arguments and are wedded to the mantra of continuous economic "growth" based on the cheapest source of energy available at present (which is still fossil fuels), regardless of the consequences. Ultimately the scientific community has no power, and its being ignored by the sort-sighted idiots that run planet earth.

However, once world agriculture is disrupted to the point where will start having global famines involving not millions, but billions of people (already we have problems with food supply, look at the news) and consequent political turmoil, when most of our coastal cities are inundated by rising sea levels, when the melting ice caps are almost entirely gone, as with all the glaciers on planet Earth, when Southern Europe becomes a desert, and Australia along with much of the Western US become uninhabitable, and when several of the world's major glacier-fed rivers (you know the Ganges the Indus, the Yellow River and the Yangze) start to dry up (upon which hundreds of millions of people depend on for their life), perhaps then people will start to understand the magnitude of the folly we are engaged in.

It is a bleak picture.
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

Post by Galbally »

Also the point I have heard made that the planet is not under threat is entirely true (George Carlin's routine is very funny, and he is right, its not the planet that is f*cked, but we are, big time).

In a million years the planet will still be here and it will be perfectly fine, there will still be life and all will be well as it has been for the last 4.5 billion years. However, I will be quite surprised if human civilization survives the next 200 years, and the species itself may well be heading for a mass extinction over the next several centuries.

Is this a good basis for this insane argument for continuing to commit collective suicide by destroying the stability of the climate we have enjoyed for the last 11,000 years (also by conincidence the only point in history where there has been any form of human civilization) and the environment it creates upon which we, as a species, depend on for all aspects of our life?

That picture of the future we are throwing away of course includes the life of all the possible future generations of human beings (including our own children and their children), so that we personally can have more convienient and luxurious lifestyles for a few more decades? If thats the only collective response that human beings can come up with, then we deserve to go extinct and become another footnote in the biological history of this ball of rock.
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

Post by Accountable »

spot;834988 wrote: [...]

Everything to do with the average world temperature depends on the condition of the atmosphere and on the absolute amount of energy being put out by the Sun. Nothing else comes into the balance. If it goes up and we lose the ice sheets then the whole system takes an upward jolt and rebalances at that higher state, and it will do the same with any other positive feedback system which the rising average temperature triggers. Similarly if we start cooling we could trigger positive cooling feedback systems.



The trend is toward higher average world temperatures because the trapping of heat is increasing. The trapping of heat is increasing because the industrial effluent content of the air is rising. Stopping the industrial effluent content of the air from rising isn't on anyone's agenda yet, all anyone's even talking about is stopping the rate at which it's getting worse.



That's my piece to start a discussion. I'm desperate for someone to give me reasons why something I've said is inaccurate.
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But you've described a really balanced system. Didn't the earth get hotter and cooler before industries? Ice ages & stuff?
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Post by Nomad »

Tick these bits off until you disagree with one. I hope everyone can get to the end still agreeing







Why is the optimum goal for everyone to agree with you ?

Lets discuss this shall we ? :wah:
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Post by Nomad »

Well not being a climatologist or any other type of ologist and only a pretend mad scientist in my laymans term mind you have omitted important aspects and subtle nuances that effect the overall general well being of the planet.



Its a fact that the polar ice cap is melting at an alarming rate.

This is new for us so it should be considered pertinent. It may be cyclical but on a much broader scale than your 24 hr Earth cycle example.

The effects of the ice cap will change our planets average temp considerably.

Why is this happening ?



I believe the El Nino and La Nina phenomenon will be amplified by more and warmer water circumnavigating the globe which will in turn alter tradewinds and tides and so on and so on.



You gave a compelling argument but in scientific terms its possible your theory might be a little over simplified.
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

Post by spot »

nvalleyvee;834996 wrote: This is my take on global warming.

IT HAPPENS EVERY CYCLE THE EARTH GETS INTO - 10,000, or 100,000 or 1,000,000 years. Get a grip!!!!!

What is wrong with you people! Have none of you looked at the history of the Earth?

This global warming? - supposedly caused by mankind can be found in the dirt and ice records of this EARTH!!!! OVER AND OVER AND OVER AGAIN!!!!

I'm sick and tired of this prediction. I live in the high desert. We had 5 years of drought and now we've had 3 years of monsoon. This rock we live upon has its own way of counterbalance and for us humans to think we have major effect on it is arrogant. Just flat arrogant.That's the first post to the thread that I challenge on the question of fact. That post carries propaganda and not meaningful information. Firstly, the "history of the Earth" is irrelevant if you go back before mammals became prominent since life can live anywhere and we're concerned here about the current forms of life which we'd quite like to avoid losing - things like all the mammals for example. Secondly, within that most recent 50 million year period (and I note your timescales of 10,000, or 100,000 or 1,000,000 years) there's no instance of an atmosphere so overloaded with contaminants, either soot or carbon dioxide or methane - we're out on an unprecedented limb already and we're going further into the unknown each year as far as they're concerned. The current state of the atmosphere can't "be found in the dirt and ice records" as you claim (within 50 million years of the present) and it's definitely "caused by mankind".

As Galbally says, the planet and life will still be here whatever we do but it won't be woolly or go baa, perhaps it will click instead. If we want to continue our residency we have to bring the atmosphere back into a sustainable state.

nvalleyvee, I've made two testable statements there. The atmosphere's further out of whack than it's been in the last 50 million years and the reason it's so far out of whack is that mankind has polluted it into that condition. Both of those statements contradict what you posted and only one of us can be right. Would you like to show me up with credible evidence that either claim I've made is wrong?



Fuzzy - the "was there an ozone hole in the past" - I've no idea how anyone could find out. You'd need something in the record of the past that you could look at and say "wow, big ozone hole back then" and I've no idea what test that could be. Maybe it was there, maybe it wasn't. It was there the first time anyone took measurements and it's got bigger since.
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Post by Accountable »

spot;835423 wrote: [...] there's no instance of an atmosphere so overloaded with contaminants, either soot or carbon dioxide or methane - we're out on an unprecedented limb already [...]
I thought I heard that a volcano eruption puts out enough pollutants (did you call them 'effluents'?) to qualify as a precedent, quantity-wise.
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Post by Clodhopper »

A lot of the problem with people's acceptance of the reality of Global Warming and how serious it really is, is that people don't understand numbers with more than about four noughts behind them. I know I don't, but I know I don't, if you see what I mean.

I've heard people saying, "Yeah, but it has all happened before - look, 6,000,000 years ago the earth was 4 degrees Centigrade hotter than it is now. What's the problem?" and they happily imagine palm tree fringed beaches on Scotland's West coast...

The problem is the speed of the change. There's not enough time for vegetation to migrate away from the overheating areas, and new forms of life to evolve to exploit them.

Galbally: Thanks for the succinct explanation.

spot: Thanks for raising this.
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Accountable;835426 wrote: I thought I heard that a volcano eruption puts out enough pollutants (did you call them 'effluents'?) to qualify as a precedent, quantity-wise.


Somewhere in a timescale of hundreds of million of years there might have been a lava plain several thousand miles wide and several hundred miles across all erupting at the same time for thousands of years - I think it's called the Deccan Traps. But there's been nothing like it in the last 50 million years and in order to discuss what's happening sensibly I'm suggesting a cut-off at that period because life before then was markedly different to life since, and your ancestor at that point resembled a small foot-high startled deer with flat feet.

An eruption like Krakatoa dips the world average temperature by a degree or two for a year or two by shading. It's not sustained or long-term and the point of my OP was to indicate that only long-term contamination has any effect, the planet's surface heat has no memory, it's just a consequence of what's happening that month. Ocean currents are one of the few things with a longer memory than that. If you could wave a wand and wake up tomorrow with the atmosphere from 1000AD out there worldwide then the arctic ice cap would rebuild itself I imagine. As it is, I've made my prediction a while ago on FG for when it will be completely gone - the summer of 2013. To be honest sooner is better since it's definitely going to completely go and I think that's the huge visible sign that'll push the politicians into finally acting.
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Post by Clodhopper »

You are right about the Deccan Traps and Krakatoa. It also applies to Mt St Helens, but it's to do with the amount of volcanic ash they put out: several million tons of it from Mt St Helens, if I remember right. It's too big a number for most people to comprehend, though - what I was referring to in my earlier post about numbers with more than about four noughts behind them being too big for most of us to understand.

Anyway, the ash gradually settles over a decade or so - nowadays we are pumping gases into the atmosphere which have the opposite effect - a greenhouse effect, not a shading effect.

Please correct me if I'm wrong on any of this.
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

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I think a part of what we're trying to get across is the difference between a condition and a trend. What I wanted to make clear in the OP is that there's no long-term memory to the planet's surface temperature. If the weather systems happen to produce a worldwide cooling for a year then you'll see a worldwide cooling for a year. The trend's set by the atmosphere but weather systems can self-perpetuate for months or, where they're driven by surface sea temperatures, for over a year. A weather system can reflect more than the average Sun heat back into space than normal and give a global cooling effect. Another weather system can do the opposite, let more heat in than average and boost temperatures worldwide for months. The only thing driving global warming is the composition of the atmosphere and the reflectivity of the planet as seen from space, both of which are tending toward weather systems which warm things up.

There - that's the first contentious thing I've written in the thread I think. "both of which are tending toward weather systems which warm things up". That's the $64,000 question which people are trying to demonstrate one way or the other. Nobody seems to have challenged any of my previous sentences yet, I'm still hoping someone will.
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I've been in a karaoke trap. They're fun for everyone but the guy with the mic.



I'll have to think on this.
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Post by CARLA »

I guess for me it is simple as I know what the problem is, how the problem will be solved with or without our making it worse or better in any fashion.

We are the problem for this Planet called Earth, not as big of a problem as we think we are. Like Earth has done so many times in the past when she feels it necessary we won't be a problem for her any longer, we will be gone. Will it happen in our life time no, or our grandkids life times no, but it will happen and only happen when "Mother Earth" is ready and not until then. Will recycling plastic stop this from happening no, will lowering emissions help no, will our attempt to stop the ice caps from melting help no. We are but a NAT on the surface of this Planet it can careless what we do as it will repair its surface, and any another layers that needs fixing when we are gone she is very good at repairs been doing it since her creation.
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spot;835445 wrote: I think a part of what we're trying to get across is the difference between a condition and a trend. What I wanted to make clear in the OP is that there's no long-term memory to the planet's surface temperature. If the weather systems happen to produce a worldwide cooling for a year then you'll see a worldwide cooling for a year. The trend's set by the atmosphere but weather systems can self-perpetuate for months or, where they're driven by surface sea temperatures, for over a year. A weather system can reflect more than the average Sun heat back into space than normal and give a global cooling effect. Another weather system can do the opposite, let more heat in than average and boost temperatures worldwide for months. The only thing driving global warming is the composition of the atmosphere and the reflectivity of the planet as seen from space, both of which are tending toward weather systems which warm things up.

There - that's the first contentious thing I've written in the thread I think. "both of which are tending toward weather systems which warm things up". That's the $64,000 question which people are trying to demonstrate one way or the other. Nobody seems to have challenged any of my previous sentences yet, I'm still hoping someone will.


Are people seriously still questioning that the atmosphere is in general trapping more energy and as a consequence warming up? I though even GW Bush has accepted at least that much of the argument, whatever about the consequences. Then again, perhaps not. It seems to me that the latest flat earth position is that yes, yes, ok the Earth is heating (a bit), but its alright, and it won't be so bad, a few sea walls, and some hybrid cars will solve the whole thing. Anyway, its handy to be able to sail across the pole to Russia, as there are great bargains in Submarines in Archangel.
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Post by spot »

CARLA;835448 wrote: We are the problem for this Planet called Earth, not as big of a problem as we think we are.Carla, either you want this species to survive into the future or you don't, I'm not particularly interested in the planet. I'm hugely interested in keeping humanity in existence and I'm quite keen on not losing a significant percentage of the other existing species too if I can help it. The knowledge that the rats might form a new civilization in another ten million years does not fill me with happiness, I actually want my own offspring to inherit something. Disinterested philosophy can only take me so far.
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Post by spot »

Galbally;835450 wrote: Are people seriously still questioning that the atmosphere is in general trapping more energy and as a consequence warming up? Yes, that's exactly what some people are rejecting. Michael Crichton in particular, if you ever find a copy of State of Fear and a spare half day.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Crichton#Criticism
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Post by CARLA »

Spot it would be nice if Human's were actually part of the "Mother Earths" big picture, but we aren't in my eyes. We like the dinosours are just passing by and will not be allowed to stay forever, just not in the big plan in my opinion. Can we make our stay a bit better maybe, maybe not. I also believer that the other species will come back to "Mother Earth" just not our species. ;)

[QUOTE]Carla, either you want this species to survive into the future or you don't, I'm not particularly interested in the planet. I'm hugely interested in keeping humanity in existence and I'm quite keen on not losing a significant percentage of the other existing species too if I can help it. The knowledge that the rats might form a new civilization in another ten million years does not fill me with happiness, I actually want my own offspring to inherit something. Disinterested philosophy can only take me so far.[/QUOTE]
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That's not enough for me, I insist that whatever carries the torch of intelligence continues to appreciate Shakespeare. So, I'm pushing for us to break the extinction trap and to perpetuate. That, in my book, involves populating the galaxy sometime soon and bugger the planet. It's been nice hanging out here but I've bigger ambitions.
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Post by CARLA »

Well Spot on this we agree as it may be the only way to keep our species around. We will also have to become a bit more humble as our arrogance is what will kills us in the long haul. ;)

[QUOTE]That's not enough for me, I insist that whatever carries the torch of intelligence continues to appreciate Shakespeare. So, I'm pushing for us to break the extinction trap and to perpetuate. That, in my book, involves populating the galaxy sometime soon and bugger the planet. It's been nice hanging out here but I've bigger ambitions.[/QUOTE]
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WOO HOO!!, what a ride!!!"

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Post by Clodhopper »

spot: There's a squirrel in my garden that appreciates Shane Williams, going by his behaviour. Will that do?
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I don't hold conversations with squirrels. Squirrels are not companionable and intelligent, squirrels are lunch.
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Although we all need a good lunch daily this is one of the reasons we won't be invited back to the "New Mother Earth Party." We can't get along with our own species, let alone any of the other humble ones that inhabit this Planet. :wah::wah:

[QUOTE]I don't hold conversations with squirrels. Squirrels are not companionable and intelligent, squirrels are lunch.[/QUOTE]
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The suggestion that the planet is in any way sentient is one with which I have never felt resonance. By all means if you'd like to expand on the way in which sentient can be applied to a planet then have a shot at it.
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Post by Clodhopper »

spot;835462 wrote: I don't hold conversations with squirrels. Squirrels are not companionable and intelligent, squirrels are lunch.


:wah::wah:

Although we all need a good lunch daily this is one of the reasons we won't be invited back to the "New Mother Earth Party." We can't get along with our own species, let alone any of the other humble ones that inhabit this Planet.


Sorry Carla - wish I could believe in Gaia theory, but... I think it's down to us.

If we do go belly up, I will take comfort in the fact that we are just one aspect of LIFE on this planet, but it's pretty cold comfort for the prospect of the non-existance of so many of the lovely people I know.
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:wah::wah: OK, OK no "Gaia theory" it is down to us. Don't need to say our goodbye's just yet I think we have way more time to screw things up.

[QUOTE]Sorry Carla - wish I could believe in Gaia theory, but... I think it's down to us.

If we do go belly up, I will take comfort in the fact that we are just one aspect of LIFE on this planet, but it's pretty cold comfort for the prospect of the non-existance of so many of the lovely people I know.[/QUOTE]
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WOO HOO!!, what a ride!!!"

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Post by Clodhopper »

Carla: I think we're already in BIIIIIIIIIIIG trouble.:-1

I think some of us will survive, but civilisation as we know it is on its last legs. Not a bad thing we may say, but the billions of walking corpses might disagree.:-1
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CH I feel the pain as well. Had we been a little less arrogant and a bit more humble with our time on "Mother Earth" things might have turned out different. We were given a chance as a species but we for the most part have blown it. :(

[QUOTE]Carla: I think we're already in BIIIIIIIIIIIG trouble.:-1

I think some of us will survive, but civilisation as we know it is on its last legs. Not a bad thing we may say, but the billions of walking corpses might disagree.:-1[/QUOTE]
ALOHA!!

MOTTO TO LIVE BY:

"Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body, but rather to skid in sideways, chocolate in one hand, champagne in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming.

WOO HOO!!, what a ride!!!"

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Post by 911 »

Spot, it's always going to be something.

When I was in junior high school, there was a major warning of over population and pollution. They estimated that by this time there would be too many people on this earth for any of us to survive. I actually won a science fair project on that very outcry. Well. . . here we are.

I have seen some convincing data on both sides. And have concluded they are both right. The world has a cycle of it's own. Something about how it rotates and tilts, it's either hotter or colder for a while. But, I believe in recycling and reusing. But Hybrid cars are stupid and will eventually become so expensive to run, we'll have to think of something else. And so, we're off to another major malfunction. We do not need cars that run on electricity or water. What are your electric bills during the summer months as it is? And your water bills during a drought?

We need a car that runs on trash. We wouldn't have to buy it. Except that our grocery bills would double with someone gouging us for packaging. We're going to get gouged to death trying to save our own planet. Damned if you do.

So, plant a tree. Have you seen the cost of trees lately? OK, go out into the woods and get a sucker, grow it on your own and then plant it. Seen any woods lately? And don't forget that land belongs to somebody who may not want you traipsing through their land.

I don't know where you live and how good your land is, but here when they build a subdivision, they cut down all the trees and the houses are within a driveway distance to your neighbor. How can the land breathe with all those building on top of it?

As you said, (I think it was you) this is not something we can fix overnight or even in twenty years. Even if we did, someone would think of something else for us to worry ourselves sick over. That's what we do to get eveyone to conform to one person opinion. Fear.

So, when you leave the house: Don't take your water in anything plastic; put on your sunscreen; wear your sunglasses; only wear cotton; don't walk on the grass; walk, don't drive your car; don't wash your car; don't smoke; don't drink; don't cuss; don't look little children in the eye; compost your garbage; grow your own earthworms for fishing; throw back the little fish; sharks won't hurt you if you don't hurt them; don't be friendly with whales-it freaks them out; don't hunt-animals have rights too and most important, do not go near a cow that farts :wah:.
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:yh_rotfl:yh_rotfl Amen and thank you.

[QUOTE]So, when you leave the house: Don't take your water in anything plastic; put on your sunscreen; wear your sunglasses; only wear cotton; don't walk on the grass; walk, don't drive your car; don't wash your car; don't smoke; don't drink; don't cuss; don't look little children in the eye; compost your garbage; grow your own earthworms for fishing; throw back the little fish; sharks won't hurt you if you don't hurt them; don't be friendly with whales-it freaks them out; don't hunt-animals have rights too and most important, do not go near a cow that farts [/QUOTE]
ALOHA!!

MOTTO TO LIVE BY:

"Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body, but rather to skid in sideways, chocolate in one hand, champagne in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming.

WOO HOO!!, what a ride!!!"

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Post by spot »

911;836394 wrote: When I was in junior high school, there was a major warning of over population and pollution. They estimated that by this time there would be too many people on this earth for any of us to survive.


I just checked - that was in 1798! Gosh you're aging well!

There used to be a word which meant "the use of contraceptives", it was neomalthusianism. It was Marie Stopes who saved the industrial world from overpopulation, the rest of the planet still relies on tuberculosis and malaria.

Your other bit though, that people were estimating that by 2008 none of us would survive because of pollution, that bit I find extremely hard to believe. As a prediction for the future I'd say it's still valid but nobody, surely, ever pitched the date at 2008.
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Funnily enough, although Malthus was wrong in a certain respect as of course all populations will come up against limitations, be they environmental, food, reproductive that will prevent them increasing up to infinity. Essentially what he missed was that there were social, pathogenic, environmental and political factors that meant that in the Western world at least, populations stabilized long before there was any problem in relation to feeding people. Though don't forget that Famine was a reality in Western Europe even in the 19th century, and Russia in the 20th century.

However, if you think about it, in 1800 there were about 800 million humans on the planet, now there are near to 7 billion, and that figure is expected to peak at about 9 and a half billion in 2050. Its a bit like a petri dish experiment, humans just contiunue to fulfill their biological function which is to reproduce as much as possible, while its the environmental limitations that will ensure that numbers will be kept at a certain level, or involve natural "culls", which we will try to stop using technology and manipulation of the environment.

Now in the Western World populations have stabilized and in some places are actually in decline, however in Asia particularly, but also in other parts of the world, the populations continue to explode and the consequences for trying to feed, clothe, house, educate, and employ this amount of people, without exhausting the environment is a daunting one to say the least.
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911: So are you saying there's nothing to worry about, it's just the scientists panicking? Was this warning you heard issued by a collective of the vast bulk of all the world's scientists involved in studying the climate such as the IPCC?

Have you looked at the price of rice today? Know about the crop failures in SE asia?

Can you provide me with any hope that the modern predictions of disaster by the world's climate scientists are no more accurate than this rumour you heard 30 or 40 years ago (you don't say so I'm guessing) and which has never been heard of since? I never heard it.

As you said, (I think it was you) this is not something we can fix overnight or even in twenty years. Even if we did, someone would think of something else for us to worry ourselves sick over. That's what we do to get eveyone to conform to one person opinion. Fear.


It's not GWBush and Iraq you know. Are you saying the opinion of the IPCC is "one person's fear"? You seriously think that all their warnings and science are about getting us to conform to "one person's fear"?

It seems to me that you are saying, "I heard a prediction at school when I was a kid and it didn't come true, so any subsequent warnings on that matter can be ignored because one warning when I was a kid turned out not to be true?" Does this really sound sensible to you?

Ah well, I've got no kids, so what happens in fifty years is unlikely to concern me much...

My personal opinion is that this is such a frightening issue that people are sticking their heads in the sand and hoping it'll go away. It won't.

I really, really hope that I'm wrong on this.
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However, if you think about it, in 1800 there were about 800 million humans on the planet, now there are near to 7 billion, and that figure is expected to peak at about 9 and a half billion in 2050.


Galbally: see my earlier comment about not understanding figures with more than four noughts in them. Can you put that in terms of how much bigger the population is going to be, based on the predictions? Assume 8 billion people alive today for the sake of convenience. Is it ten times? Or does that mean we now have 100 people trying to exist where there was just 1 in 1800?
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The entire population of the USA could live on the Falkland Islands if it were merely a question of space. There, I just fixed a whole bunch of the world's problems in one sentence.
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spot;836563 wrote: The entire population of the USA could live on the Falkland Islands if it were merely a question of space. There, I just fixed a whole bunch of the world's problems in one sentence.


chuckle. They'd have to eat a lot of penguins. Which was really my point. It's resources, not space (as you well knew:p).
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Clodhopper;836566 wrote: chuckle. They'd have to eat a lot of penguins. Which was really my point. It's resources, not space (as you well knew:p).


I like penguins:) prefer a twirl or a kitkat though...:wah:....runs off after throwing her choccy wrapper into clods back garden:sneaky::D
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Chezzie;836694 wrote: I like penguins:) prefer a twirl or a kitkat though...:wah:....runs off after throwing her choccy wrapper into clods back garden:sneaky::D


AH! SO IT'S YOU IS IT?

(Clodhopper storms out of his pc and applies a cattle prod to the obvious portion of Chezzies' avatar!)

Hah! Take that you litterbug.

(returns to pc muttering and growling) "grrrrmumblesnarlgrumf....."

:)
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Post by koan »

I find humans to be entirely self-centered, overindulgent, reckless, needy and generally unwilling to compromise. I think the charities that allow people to donate $100 and think they've done enough to help the rest of the world are doing society a disservice. I think that the likelihood of humans being able to achieve anything useful on a global level is nil when we can't even fix the problem of homeless people in our own cities.

Despite having a bleak view of my species, I do what I can to make the world a better place on an individual level. I choose not to see the forest for the trees because if I can see the whole forest I'm too far away from any actual tree to be able to water it.
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Post by spot »

That's a rather broader issue than I raised. I agree entirely on where to tackle general problems - close enough to have an impact, where you can demonstrate the difference and persuade people that it's worth making an effort.

I go back to my OP to emphasize that there's two issues under this one heading of Global Warming though. There's the average world temperature for a year, which I hope I demonstrated is a short-term issue that can shift way up or way down depending on temporary changes in balance between reflectivity, infrared trapping and surface sea conditions. There's also the degree of air pollution which is steadily rising, which nobody has started to make rise more slowly year on year and which one day needs to be put back to a sensible pre-industrial state.

Air pollution is capable of inducing shifts in the point around which those average annual world temperatures fluctuate - the big shifts that result from a positive feedback system being triggered. Like melting the arctic ice cap and losing its reflectivity. That's why it matters. We've not gone through a shift yet but I think once the arctic ice cap has gone we'll all realize that it can happen and that it will happen again and that we don't want it to. Perhaps that will be the reason we finally tackle air pollution.

Those shifts are the only meaningful description of Global Warming that I can come up with. There is no cumulative warming. Cumulative warming is meaningless. Unless someone would like to explain it? That's what the thread's for, after all.
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Clodhopper;836554 wrote: Galbally: see my earlier comment about not understanding figures with more than four noughts in them. Can you put that in terms of how much bigger the population is going to be, based on the predictions? Assume 8 billion people alive today for the sake of convenience. Is it ten times? Or does that mean we now have 100 people trying to exist where there was just 1 in 1800?


OK

800 Million = 800,000,000

91/2 billion = 9,500,000,000



So you are talking about a 12-fold increase in 200 years. The planet is capable of supporting 10 billion people, though that does involve the use of much of the available arable land directly for food supply. Which is already the case of course, but the amount of land used would have to be increased, and dietary habits would have to change, certainly meat would be very expensive, as its much harder to produce, in terms of the inputs its requires.

In fact theoretically someone calculated that the world could at maximum support 36 billion, but somehow I don't think thats really feasible, I would say once goes over 10 billion you really will find it difficult to prevent really widescale famines and destruction of land from over-farming.

Its interesting, we really do seem to be at a time when a lot of negative things are all coming at the same time, we have the climate problem, the end of cheap oil, the issue of population expansion in Asia, the middle east and africa, geopolitcal problems with terrorism, oh well, never a dull moment.
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You don't seem to have read anything the rest of us have written here Jester.

Presumably you agree that air pollution - by which I mean particles, carbon dioxide and methane - has been rising for the last two hundred years? The recorded values for carbon dioxide for the last 400,000 years vary between 200 and 280 parts per million until 200 years ago, they're now at 380 and rising fast. Are we agreed with at least those facts?

It's a pity you came in writing without reading, I was hoping to discuss rather than watch posturing.
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Post by Clodhopper »

Jester: I hope you're right. I really do. I just don't think the Greens are capable of organising a conspiracy like that without someone spilling the beans - you make them sound like the Illuminati!:wah: It's not a question of the land we stand on, it's how much of the world's resources we consume per person. It would be interesting to see some good statistics on how much land it takes to support one Brit or Yank - though of course, land isn't a good way to measure, say, "access to medical care". Have a feeling we'd already be using a couple of extra Earths - though we can hope the technology improves to allow us to be vastly more efficient.

Galbally: Thanks for the charity to the innumerate (me). More generally, the words "roost" and chickens coming home to.." spring to mind.

spot: Agree with pretty much everything you've said.
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Jester;837132 wrote: I have a stat somewhere that Ive posted here before about population myth... basicly it says that at the 1980 world population factor all the people in the world could stand on 2.5 square feet of land and fit into a city HALF the size of Jacksonville FloridaJust to clear this puzzle up - can we clarify what you mean by "2.5 square feet"? If you mean a square piece of land 2.5 feet on each side (which isn't what I'd mean by it) then you'd need 1,345 square miles to hold the current population of the planet.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... on_density has countries by population density. The highest packing is the entirely urban Macau which has over a half million people in 29.2 km^2. That's each person stood on a square patch of ground 7.5 feet on each edge and I'm told Macau feels very tightly packed.

If everyone in the US had only as much room as people in the UK there'd be 2.4 billion people in the USA. I expect most of them would be illegal immigrants, don't you? We in the UK enjoy a more bijou lifestyle than you're used to.
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ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

Post by spot »

Jester;837199 wrote: In what areas? And how far back do you have actual testable data for, not predictions but actual tests taken from air samples?The composition of the air doesn't vary significantly round the planet so where the measurements were taken doesn't matter a lot but they're from Antarctic core samples. Yes they're measurements of real air samples and yes they really go back 400,000 years, year by year by year each one labelled by the exact date each air sample was captured.
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