My prediction for the 2013 Grand National

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My prediction for the 2013 Grand National

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Although the event Is over 20 weeks away and we have no declarations until nearer the day, looking at the entrants, I am thrilled to see listed, Beshabar.

I was bitterly disappointed this year when after watching him like a hawk all year, he missed the race due to Injury.

By my methods of choosing horses for the National, he ticks all the right boxes.

10 years old, Irish bred, has run over distances of 4 miles, has never fallen, has run In fields of up to 28 runners and can stay the distance.

I'm also delighted to see ' Shakalakaboomboom' entered again this year.

Finishing 9th this year, he ran a magnificent race leading from the front until his stamina gave out around the 3rd last fence. Although the stats for 8 year old's winning the race are very few, I believe that with the experience he gained this year may put him In good order for a place, possibly a win.

I'm very surprised to see ' Imperial Commander', one of Kauto Star's great rivals entered. Having been out of action for over a year due to Injury, I would consider him too valuable a horse to risk entering.... oh well, plenty of time between now and the run up where much will change with withdrawals and declarations.

Regardless, I see fit to take Beshabar at 33/1 with Paddy Power and 25/1 Shakalakaboomboom at this early stage,
At the going down of the sun and in the morning, we will remember them. R.L. Binyon
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My prediction for the 2013 Grand National

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84 are entered or this years Grand National.... 44 of these will drop out by April but am pleased to see Beshabar down to AP 25/1 after I have taken 33/1 for him a month ago.....Your roving race reporter will whittle these down for you as the declarations and weights come In but I've highlighted a few who I think will be the main players for now....



THE 2013 JOHN SMITH’S GRAND NATIONAL - ENTRIES

Class 1, Grade 3, £975,000 total prize fund. 4.15pm, Aintree, Saturday, April 6, 2013, four miles, three and a half furlongs

Form / Horse / Age / Owner / Trainer

P3-1120 ACROSS THE BAY (IRE) 9 Scotch Piper Syndicate Donald McCain

P12/123- ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 12 Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O’Neill

0513-30 ALFIE SHERRIN 10 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill

044001- ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 12 Mr & Mrs Peter James Douglas Peter Bowen

3-614U4 ANY CURRENCY (IRE) 10 Cash Is King Martin Keighley

2-U0P45 AURORAS ENCORE (IRE) 11 D Pryde, J Beaumont & D P van der Hoeven Sue Smith

P/5000/P- BACKSTAGE (FR) 11 MPR & Capranny Syndicate Gordon Elliott IRE

121/46-P BALLABRIGGS (IRE) 12 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain

P0F1-12 BALTHAZAR KING (IRE) 9 The Brushmakers Philip Hobbs

2F-63PP BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 10 Noel Glynn Noel Glynn IRE

1/U121/5- BESHABAR (IRE) 11 Middleham Park Racing X & Ann Burrows Tim Vaughan

440/-U31 BIG FELLA THANKS 11 Crossed Fingers Partnership Tom George

051130 BOB LINGO (IRE) 11 J P McManus Tom Mullins IRE

P-06F22 BOSTONS ANGEL (IRE) 9 Elder Scouller Jessica Harrington IRE

5110-P4 CALGARY BAY (IRE) 10 Camilla Radford Mick Channon

234-F21 CALL THE POLICE (IRE) 10 DD Racing Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE

P//1334-2 CAPPA BLEU (IRE) 11 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams

2B-0U63 CHICAGO GREY (IRE) 10 John Earls Gordon Elliott IRE

40//2161- CLOUDY LANE 13 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain

413-521 COLBERT STATION (IRE) 9 J P McManus Ted Walsh IRE

1P-4PP0 CROSS APPEAL (IRE) 7 John Corr Noel Meade IRE

120-25F FABALU (IRE) 11 Tim Leslie Donald McCain

64-2P15 FORPADYDEPLASTERER (IRE) 11 Goat Racing Syndicate Thomas Cooper IRE

21B-4FP FRISCO DEPOT 9 Waley-Cohen, Burke, Broughton, Broughton Charlie Longsdon

0/44-060 GULLIBLE GORDON (IRE) 10 Yeh Man Partnership Peter Bowen

112P-P0 HARRY THE VIKING 8 Sir Alex Ferguson, Ged Mason, R Wood & P Done Paul Nicholls

51U/1P/-2 IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 12 Our Friends in the North Nigel Twiston-Davies

30/1122/- JESSIES DREAM (IRE) 10 David Johnson Gordon Elliott IRE

11P3-02 JOIN TOGETHER (IRE) 8 Ian Fogg & Paul Barber Paul Nicholls

20-3523 JONCOL (IRE) 10 Kay Browne Paul Nolan IRE

4-F0211 KATENKO (FR) 7 A Brooks Venetia Williams



01236-1 LAMBRO (IRE) 8 Byerley Thoroughbred Racing Willie Mullins IRE

10511-P LION NA BEARNAI (IRE) 11 The Lock Syndicate Tom Gibney IRE

6P00-1F LITTLE JOSH (IRE) 11 Tony Bloom Nigel Twiston-Davies

011611 LOST GLORY (NZ) 8 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill

PP-5220 MAGNANIMITY (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Dessie Hughes IRE

4P2P-26 MAJOR MALARKEY (IRE) 10 Baker, Dodd & Cooke Nigel Twiston-Davies

030U-06 MATUHI 10 Willsford Racing Incorporated David Pipe

310-3P4 MIDNIGHT CHASE 11 Lady Clarke Neil Mulholland

04-1311 MISTER HYDE (IRE) 8 Bensaranat Club & W McLuskey Jonjo O’Neill

1P-2215 MORTIMERS CROSS 12 John Needham John Needham

0-23602 MR MOONSHINE (IRE) 9 Sue Smith Sue Smith

1133FP MUMBLES HEAD (IRE) 12 Karen Bowen Peter Bowen

1F-3F60 NINETIETH MINUTE (IRE) 10 Dermot Cox Tom Taaffe IRE

33F425 ODYSSEAS (FR) 10 Mrs Jean Porzier Yann Porzier FR

4P1/B1F- ON HIS OWN (IRE) 9 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE

F5U-540 ORGANISEDCONFUSION (IRE) 8 Grace Dunlop Arthur Moore IRE

632/4-4U OSCAR TIME (IRE) 12 Robert Waley-Cohen/Sir Martin & Simon Broughton Martin Lynch IRE

05r316 OUTLAW PETE (IRE) 9 J P McManus John Halley IRE

11/P10/-0 PANDORAMA (IRE) 10 R J Bagnall Noel Meade IRE

30/F2PP- PEARLYSTEPS 10 The Glazeley Partnership Henry Daly

0-00016 PENTIFFIC (NZ) 10 P Sinn, P Lawrence, L Sutcliffe, M Smith Venetia Williams

5/230-53 PLANET OF SOUND 11 Charles Lloyd-Baker Philip Hobbs

(0)6U1/-50 POKER DE SIVOLA (FR) 10 David Johnson Ferdy Murphy

351/51-1 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 10 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE

1211-5F PROBLEMA TIC (FR) 7 Jo Tracey David Pipe

F1113-0 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 9 Red Barn Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE

131P/PP- QUINZ (FR) 9 Andrew Cohen Philip Hobbs

4010F-6 QUISCOVER FONTAINE (FR) 9 J P McManus Willie Mullins IRE

13-3361 QUITO DE LA ROQUE (FR) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Colm Murphy IRE

053B0-6 RARE BOB (IRE) 11 D A Syndicate Dessie Hughes IRE

000-1U3 ROBERTO GOLDBACK (IRE) 11 Simon Munir Nicky Henderson

511112 ROI DU MEE (FR) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE

U1F102 ROMANESCO (FR) 8 Annie Flora Joan Bowles Gordon Elliott IRE

4U01-F4 SAINT ARE (FR) 7 David Fox Tim Vaughan

1//11113- SEABASS (IRE) 10 Gunners Syndicate Ted Walsh IRE

0-12136 SHAKERVILZ (FR) 10 Wicklow Bloodstock Limited Willie Mullins IRE

1/21B-00 SOLL 8 Derrick Mossop Jo Hughes

1P/1/401- SUMMERY JUSTICE (IRE) 9 Mrs H Brown Venetia Williams

Betting for John Smith’s Grand National (Betfred)

16/1 On His Own, Prince De Beauchene; 20/1 Colbert Station, Join Together, Katenko, Seabass, Sunnyhillboy, Tidal Bay; 25/1 Beshabar, Cappa Bleu, Harry The Viking, Imperial Commander, Roberto Goldback, Roi Du Mee, Teaforthree, The Package, What A Friend; 33/1 Across The Bay, Albertas Run, Alfie Sherrin, Ballabriggs, Balthazar King, Big Fella Thanks, Bostons Angel, Frisco Depot, Lambro, Lion Na Bearnai, Organisedconfusion, Oscar Time, Outlaw Pete, Romanesco, Saint Are, Tofino Bay, Weird Al, Wyck Hill; 40/1 Call The Police, Jessies Dream, Little Josh, Lost Glory, Magnanimity, Mister Hyde, Planet Of Sound, Quel Esprit, Quiscover Fontaine, Quito De La Roque, Tarquinius; 50/1 Always Waining, Any Currency, Auroras Encore, Becauseicouldntsee, Bob Lingo, Chicago Grey, Cross Appeal, Forpadydeplasterer, Joncol, Mr Moonshine, Ninetieth Minute, Pandorama, Problema Tic, Quinz, Rare Bob, Shakervilz, Summery Justice, Swing Bill, Tartak, The Rainbow Hunter, Treacle; 66/1 Backstage, Calgary Bay, Cloudy Lane, Midnight Chase, Odysseas, Pearlysteps, Pentiffic, Poker De Sivola, Soll, Viking Blond; 100/1 Fabalu, Gullible Gordon, Major Malarkey, Matuhi, Mortimers Cross, Mumbles Head, Tatenen.

¼ 1-2-3-4 - All Quoted
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My prediction for the 2013 Grand National

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Trainer Tim Vaughan has made no bones about it, “It’s all about that one day” he said recently about he 2013 Grand National and all his eggs have been placed firmly in the Beshabar basket.

Now 11 years old, the 2011 Coral Scottish National, Beshabar has been off the track since damaging a tendon in last year’s Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury but Vaughan has been working hard and steadily building up his workload in preparation for the 2013 Grand National on April 6th where he will head without a prep run, a risky strategy, but one that just might pay off for him.

Beshabar Prepping For 2013 Grand National | Grand National
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My prediction for the 2013 Grand National

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Most people feel picking a good bet for the Grand National Is a lottery.... to most It Is but I've followed a plan over the years that although not fool proof has always given me at least two places at decent odds If not the winner. Last year, here on this forum, I gave you the winner In my final 5 and a 4th.... 4 of my 5 stayed on their feet and completed the course which Is what this race Is about... not speed. In 2011 I predicted the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th....

Over the weeks as the weights and declarations come In, I hope to be able to whittle down the 40 runners to a final 5 again... don't forget that Paddypower pays out on a 5th place.

First of all, I ditch any French horses.... Mon Momme In 2009 was a one off after high calibre horses were brought down but It's worth noting also that he was UK trained. Typically, French horses are not trained over 2 and a half miles and trained over lower hurdles. The GN Is just way out of their league.

10 year old horses have won 10 times since 1970 and have won 4 of the last 6 GN's

The last 7 year old to win the race was Bogskar in 1940...... new BHA rules mean 6 year olds are ruled out of the race.... just as well, I don't thin there's been a 6 year old winner for 100 years.

Since 1970 there have only been 7 horses to win carrying more than 11 stone. Red Rum twice, 1974, 1977 L’Escargot 1975, Grittar 1982, Corbiere 1983, Hedgehunter 2005, Don’t Push It 2010 and Neptune Collonges 2012 however, I'd put some of these wins down to experience and half of the fields not even completing the course.

The last mare to win the GN was Nickel Coin in 1951

Only 5 Lady jockeys have actually managed to complete the course. None have won.

Irish horses have won 6 times since 1998

More later
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My prediction for the 2013 Grand National

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The weights and declarations are In....

Heading the weights Is Paul Nicholls Tidal Bay who will carry top weight of 11 stone 10 lb.... always makes me laugh when racing pundits refer to him as The Enigmatic Tidal Bay... this Is the horse that Nicholls revealed would turn round and bite your face off soon as look at you...

I like Tidal Bay very much. He's a warrior and on experience and stamina alone, I would have to put him In my shortlist, however, no horse has won carrying top weight since Red Rum In 1974. If any horse bucks this trend It will be him. He has the heart of a lion. He's the right age, Irish, has won over 3 miles and Is a stayer. He's an experienced jumper who'll stay on his feet. He's accustomed to large fields, heavy conditions and he ticks all the right boxes.

Beshabar will carry just 10 stone 5 lb.... good news on the that but statiscally, selection should be horses rated 136 and 157 on the day of the race but this horse has won The Scottish Grand National under appalling conditions.

I can't believe that Imperial Commander Is entered. I have always said I just don't think he's a GN horse.

Also entered Is Sir Alex Ferguson's What A Friend This Is a far too quirky pest for my likely. He gave Denman a damn good challenge In The Hennessy Gold Cup In 2009 and can jump and stay well but he's a freak and unpredictable to me... He's quite likely to throw his jockey before the tape even goes up.

More later when I can be arssed
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My prediction for the 2013 Grand National

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Now some good new for you rabid animal rights protesters.

Yes, horses get hurt, yes, horses die. We don't relish that... most of us shed tears on the day but the HRA Is always working with animal welfare to help find ways to minimise this.

I am very please to see that horses under 7 years old now can not be entered. I've never had any time for owners and trainers who risk such young Inexperienced horses In race that requires so much stamina and experience.

There Is now a new design for the fences. It will Incorporate all fences except the open ditches. New design has a core of plastic birch, 18 Inches In height with the ground below being adjusted to give each fence varying heights from 4ft 6in at the first to 5ft at the 5th, 8th, 9th, 10th, and 12th. The Inner fence will be covered with spruce with a minimum depth of 14 Inches.

At the bottom of each fence will be a toe board 14 Inches high to give a clear ground line. Added to this there will be a padded rail one third of the way up to the height of the hurdle.

The Inner core of the ditches will be standard Birch which yields and Is more forgiving than fences of previous years.
At the going down of the sun and in the morning, we will remember them. R.L. Binyon
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My prediction for the 2013 Grand National

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Tidal Bay today suffered a Stress facture of the cannonbone.

Might be OK by April... will have to wait and see.
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My prediction for the 2013 Grand National

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So, now I can start to whittle down the field...starting with those horses who are the right age and are Irish....I'm leaving out Tidal Bay now depending on his recovery.... I'll whittle down further nearer the day depending on form, distance of form, Jockey and weights.

Beshabar

Seabass

Cappa Bleu

Colbert Station

Sunnyhill Boy

Teaforthree

The Package

Wyck Hill

Alfie Sherrin

Ballabrigs

Chicago Grey

Imperial Commander

Across The Bay

Balthazar King

Big Fella Thanks

Roberto Goldback

Lion Na Bearnai

Oscar Time

Planet Of Sound

Weird Al

Always Waining

Auroras Encore

Treacle



Today's shortlist from 40 entrants.... I can bin several of these right now due to form but more nearer the day and a shorter shortlist from your roving racing reporter.
At the going down of the sun and in the morning, we will remember them. R.L. Binyon
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My prediction for the 2013 Grand National

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It's confirmed... Tidal Bay Is out of The Grand National

This has seen a mad scramble by bookies to re-adjust the odds with some big big changes with at least 2 lb being added to the weights to compensate for Tidal Bay.

First, Prince De Beauchene moves In as favourite now being slashed from 12/1 to 10/1

Closely followed by 6 others who have had their odds shortened.
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My prediction for the 2013 Grand National

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In last years Grand National Chicago Grey was, through no fault of his own brought down.

This horse ticks 7 of the boxes of statistics and trends so even this early on, I have to put Chicago Grey In my final 5 line up.

With 8 of the last 10 winners being aged 9 or 10 years old while 14 of the 16 placed horses over the last four years have carried a weight of 10 stone 11 lb or higher.

This massively narrows down the field leaving only 5 possibles remaining once horses who have won on more than one chase start this season. Chicago Grey won today.



Weird Al, Planet Of Sound, Junior and West End Rocker all trained in England, Chicago Grey Is the sole Irish horse from these 5.

Aged 10 years old, Irish, run on the Aintree course, has won on extremely heavy going, has won over 3 miles, hasn't fallen since 2010, experienced Jockey, right weight. has run In large fields.....Came second behind Beshabar In The Scottish Grand National.

You'd do well to take 25/1 anti post each way before the betting Is adjusted after his win today.
At the going down of the sun and in the morning, we will remember them. R.L. Binyon
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My prediction for the 2013 Grand National

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An Interesting race at Kempton Park Saturday In the 3.50 for we will see how some of the Grand National entrants perform.

Favourite Is Wyck Hill who has just been newly acquired by J.P McManus and Is likely to be saddled by A.P. McCoy...

That pest What A Friend Is also entered here and I'll be very Interested to see If he behaves himself or weather he remains too unpredictable for my liking.

Good to see one of my old favourites Nacarat entered and have taken 8/1 each way.

Also entered are Roberto Goldback, and Opening Batsman.

Just the one bet for me here.... Nacarat
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My prediction for the 2013 Grand National

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Thanks to my racing pal Tracey, a proffessional race photographer who trades as Turfpix for this photograph she took yesterday at the Paul Nicholls Yard.



The pest...What A Friend... Looking good.

Attached files
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My prediction for the 2013 Grand National

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Interesting race...

Sadly, IMHO a massive blunder early could have cost Nacarat the race.. ... at 12 years old, he looks headed for retirement now.

Opening Batsman was the winner

Wyck Hill and Roberto Goldback both disappointing and I would rule them out of The Grand National now

The pest managed to behave himself today and was actually travelling well until a blunder cost him the pace . However, If It wasn't for that one blunder, he didn't put a foot wrong.... For that reason, I won't rule out What A Friend yet.
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Meanwhile over In Fairyhouse a few more GN entrants raced today.

The Grand National favourite Prince De Beauchene got beaten Into 2nd with Seabass 3rd and Oscar Time last
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11 entrants ruled out of The Grand National today.

Call The Police, Lambro, Shakervilz, Tidal Bay, Organisedconfusion, Pandorama, Little Josh, Mister Hyde, Cross Appeal, Outlaw Pete and Fabalu.
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I've just been doing some more research for Cheltenham statistics and It's worth noting that Chicago Grey was the winner of the 2011 National Hunt Steeple Chase at The Cheltenham Festival.

It's a marathon test of stamina run over 4 miles for amateur jockey's only.

This Is making him more appealing by the day...

He now stands with most bookies at 18/1

I can't recommend this horse as a good each way bet strongly enough.

Paddypower pay on a 5th place and remember, a long priced place at 1/4 off the odds is better than a short priced loser.

I you take 18/1 now, he only has to finish In the first 5 and you have a return of 9/2..... I'm already on him.
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Grade 1 Grand National entrant Jessies Dream was this morning killed on the gallops...

Sigh
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I'm going to stick my neck out with my third choice for my final 5 selections.....

This Is a horse that's right outside the betting at 25/1 but I think he's worth an each way punt....

Tofino Bay

Tofino Bay’s Cheltenham run gives him big Grand National chance | Ladbrokes.com
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Sunnyhill Boy goes Into my final 5 bets...

He was beaten by a nostril hair In last years Grand National but that's not to play It safe...

To ask any horse to compete In 2 major handicap races within a month of each other Is a big ask, however, when this race depends on stamina, staying power and jumping ability, I believe experience will see him through....

At 20/1, I feel he's worthy of an each way bet...
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Rumours from neighing circles are that Beshabar Is lame...
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I've just taken 20/1 for Outlaw Pete each way In the Irish Grand National Easter Monday
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Looks like the greatest Jumps Jockey In history will ride Colbert Station In The Grand National.... He's ridden over 3,000 winners, however, the Grand National Is one that regually eludes him...

Love this video AP McCoy

AP McCoy:|| I'll Keep Dreaming::||The Greatest Jockey - YouTube
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FFS.... Tofino Bay out of the Grand National

Also out Is 2 nd Favourite Wyck Hall...

Also out Is the 3 rd favourite Prince De Beauchene

This Is going to upset the betting...

Now here's the thing... It's been revealed that Sam Thomas will likely ride that pest What A Friend

For me he's too damn quirky but I can't shake off how he almost had Denman In the 2009 Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury, one of the most gruelling National Hunt Chases. If he's on form, he could be In with a chance. He fell at the Cheltenham festival last year and he made a massive blunder at the fences last time out, that worries me still...but, when he's on form, he's a stayer and has the stamina....hmmmmm
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My prediction for the 2013 Grand National

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Blimey !!!

BetVictor are paying out on 6 places In the Grand National and money refunded If your horse falls...
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My prediction for the 2013 Grand National

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So strictly sticking to statistics, I am looking for Irish horses that are 9 or 10 years old, have won over 3 miles, are used to running In large fields of numbers, who have not fallen In the past two years, have an experienced Jockey and Ideally have run the Aintree course before...

This Year, this Is going to narrow the field right down....

The short list fitting this criteria Is as follows:

Beshabar ( with a run ) Winner of Scottish Grand National

Seabass 3 rd last year

Cappa Bleu ( last fall In 2009 ) 3 rd In Welsh National and 4 th last year In Grand National

Chicago Grey ( brought down through no fault of his own last year )

Colbert Station ( Has never fallen )

Teaforthree ( Has never fallen ) Bags of stamina and excellent jumper

Sunnyhill Boy ( Has never fallen ) 2nd last year

Balthazar King ( fell In December 2011 )

Across The Bay ( never fallen )

Magnaminity ( never fallen )

What A Friend ( fell In March 2012 ) ( Pest of a horse )

I will whittle this down to 5 nearer to next week as and when I see news on fitness.
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My prediction for the 2013 Grand National

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Statistically, I am ruling out What A Friend too damn unpredictable for a serious wager but.... he's one of those that when he wins, you sit there saying ' I knew It, I bloody well knew It'.... so I am going to have a very small each way bet on the pest. But at 50/1 he has to be worth a small risk bet... he's capable that's the nagging doubt... My biggest concern Is his lack of jumping skill of late and he's not encountered the Aintree hurdles before....

It's worth remembering that when he came In behind Denman In the Hennessy In 2009, he actually easily beat Niche Market, the Irish Grand National winner, Gone To Lunch, a former Hennessy Gold Cup winner, Mon Monne, the former Grand National winner and War Of Attrition, a former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner... His jumping was Impeccable... If he's on form, he may get placed....

Scroll through to 5.30.... see what you think

Newbury - Hennessy Gold Cup 2009 - YouTube
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My prediction for the 2013 Grand National

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Now we start to get picky with the 11 on the shortlist....

There's always one horse that everyone wants to see win.... my husband actually wants to see What A Friend win just only to see a smile on his owners face. Sir Alex Ferguson, miserable bugger.

For me, I'd love to see Imperial Commander win... The horse Is a legend, a warrior and has the heart of a lion... I adore him but for me he's a Gold Cup Chaser not a Grand National horse; Statistically, I have ruled him out from the get go. He's coming up to his 13th birthday In May and has spent two years out of action due to Injury. He seemed to return to form on his first outing from that Injury at Cheltenham In January coming a close 2nd to Cape Tribulation but.... only 10 runners In that race....40 GN entrants Is a whole new ball game.. Then there's the weight Issue.....

Red Rum was the only horse to win off a weight greater than 11 stone 5 lb since the 70's...Carrying 11 stone 10 lb.... Imperial Commander would have to brea every hoodoo to pull It off.... I just can't see It happening...

Also out would be Seabass.... slighty picky on the weights as he carries, as It stands 11 stone 6 lb, but I predict the handicapper will be adjusting the marks given the recent withdrawals and his weight will Increase maybe by even 3 lb..... also.... no woman has ever ridden the winner of the Grand National... ridden by Katie walsh

Weights are not a huge Issue when we're talking 3 lbs here and there In your average 3 mile chase.... But at 4 and a half miles, just one extra pound In the last half mile will slow down the greatest of stayers.... will be checking for weight adjustments this week/
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Into my final 5 goes Teaforthree

He's ticking all the right boxes. Irish, 9 years old, within the weights, as It stands, carrying 11 stone 3lb, has won over a distance of 4 miles, has won on both heavy and good/soft going, has never fallen and has run In large fields...

Bags of stamina and an excellent jumper. The only box he doesn't tick Is the ' Aintree factor' however, he Is a seasoned Cheltenham chaser and stayer.

He's won and been placed In 11 out of his 17 starts.... he looks a very good each way bet.... In a race that depends on staying ability and stamina, he's a plodder who gives his all every time... I like him a lot.

Current market, he stands at 14/1
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Here's an Interesting fact.... only 37 percent of horses over the last ten years have actually finished The Grand National race...
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It's confirmed.... Beshabar Is out... ankle Injury
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Last year's finish....

I am still of the opinion that It should have been declared at a dead heat.... look at how close Katie Walsh came to making history as the 1 st woman to win the GN, In the middle....

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I am ruling out Balthazar King from my final 5...... although I do believe he'll be within the first 10.....

This now narrows down my field to:

Chicago Grey

Cappa Bleu

Sunnyhill Boy

Teaforthree

Colbert Station

Magnaminity

Across The Bay

With Chicago Grey, Teaforthree and Sunnyhill Boy In the final 5.... I now have to get very picky with the remaining 4...

.
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So let's first look at Cappa Bleu....

There Is no denying he has to be one of the most experienced this year...I remember not rating this horse when he first appeared on the scene but he's one of those that I have come to like very much and admire him for his guts.

3 rd In Welsh National and 4 th last year In Grand National... there Is no question on his stamina and staying power.

My problem here Is that he will be 12 years old In June.... but he Is used to large fields and has run on heavy as well as good going.

From 11 starts, he's been placed or won 8 times....
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Colbert Station

Won the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown In December...

He ticks all the boxes... Irish, 9 years old, run In large fields, has never fallen, ran well on heavy as well as soft and good going, well within the weight, currently at 11 stone 1 pound, likely to be ridden by champion jockey AP Mccoy,...

The only box he doesn't tick Is ' The Aintree factor'... but Is seasoned to Leopardstown and Punchestown Ireland...

Has won or been placed In 8 of 18 starts
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Magnaminity

Irish, 9 years old, within the weights, currently carrying 10 stone 7 pound, has run on heavy and good to soft going, has never fallen, has run In large fields ,doesn't have the Aintree factor but is seasoned to Punchestown, Ireland...

Has won or been placed 13 times out of 23 jumps starts
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Across The Bay

Ticks all the boxes... Irish, 9 years old, within the weights currently carrying 11 stone 2 pounds, used to large fields, has never fallen, has run over 3 and a half miles, has tun on heavy and good going and has the Aintree factor...has run the Aintree course coming In 3rd.

He had a comfortable win In February this year on heavy ground carrying 11 stone 4 lbs...

Has won or been placed 16 out of 31 starts...
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Blimey !!!!

One of the countries top racing tipsters said today exactly what I said about Magnaminity yesterday.....

hmmmm Is he a lurker ? lol
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10 lurkers currently viewing this thread....
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I am ruling out Cappa Bleu from my final 5 although I must state, I believe he'll be right up there in the first 10...

The thing that rocks my confidence with him despite his excellent form, Is the way he tires In the final stages. Although 4th last year, he was a good 12 lengths behind the first 3 and It was his stamina eking out In the last half mile that cost him... Unless trainer Evan Williams has Improved him at home for 4 miles, this makes me lose confidence In napping him and having a serious bet on him... The drying Aintree ground will suit him better, but then, so It will many of the other entrants.

In a way, I hope I am wrong as I like this horse a lot. If some of the big guns fall or get brought down, he may just get lucky....but for me... my money goes on ability not luck
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Although I spend much time weighing up the stats, when It comes to the Grand National, many people who never usually bet believe It Is a lottery and will go with superstition...they will choose a horse on lucky numbers or the name may strike a chord with them...

I don't go with the superstition but here's some very little known Info about something that could look that way....

Historically whenever there has been a 7 In the year, the Grand National has seen a drama, a historical moment or a disaster.... oooo errrr

This Includes the 1997 GN run on a Monday after racing was abandoned after a bomb scare...

None of these drama's was more outstanding than the 1967 GN which saw the biggest disaster In racing history.... It has been historicall called ' Disaster at the 23 rd ever since... The 23 rd fence was renamed ' The Foinavon' hurdle...

This Is truely astonishing footage from 1967 and even if you don't like Horse Racing...this Is a wonderful look back In time...... no horses were hurt In the race

Foinavon Wins Grand National after Huge Pile Up Causes Race Shambles (1967) - YouTube
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I'm going to throw you a wildcard....... a rank outsider....One of those horses that If some of the big guns fall or get brought down, he may just get lucky you know...At 50/1.... he's got to be worth a small each way bet......If you put your bet on with Paddypower bookies... he only has to come In the first 5 and you have a place pay out of 12/1

Bear In mind In 2011 saw less than half of the field actually complete the course..... This one may just get lucky
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The wild card....

This horse seems to have been over-looked by the pundits and the 50/1 price seems to confirm that but he ticks boxes...

He's Irish, he's 10 years old..... he Is well withing the weights at just 10 stone 9 lb which In fact, Is the lowest weight he's ever carried before,

There's not even a blemish on his jumping career. He's always jumped exceptionally well and stamina....

He's classy Grade 1 but his problem Is that he Is slow... and he'll struggle to keep up with the top speed.... but then... this race is not about speed. It's about stamina, jumping ability and the ability to stay on doggedly... This horse Is a Tugboat and has only run races over 3 miles.... out of 21 starts he has won and been placed 18 times.

With a few accidents.... he will stay on and who knows ? He may just get lucky....

At 50/1 Joncol
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So It's Thursday and the final declarations have been made this morning..... as I expected, those outside the betting have lost a place while It Is Imperial Commander heads the field and champion Jockey AP McCoy has opted to ride Colbert Station over Sunnyhill Boy.

This Is It folks.... The final 40 runners, riders and trainers. I will post my final 5 tonight...........

Grand National racecard

Card number | Form | Name | Breeding | Age - Weight | Trainer | Jockey I Approx odds

1) 51U/1P/-2 IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 12-11-10 Nigel Twiston-Davies/Sam Twiston-Davies 14-1

2) P/33F0-0 WHAT A FRIEND 10-11-09 Paul Nicholls/Sam Thomas 50-1

3) 3PF-4PP WEIRD AL (IRE) 10-11-08 Donald McCain/Timmy Murphy 50-1

4) 1113-04 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 9-11-07 Willie Mullins IRE 40-1

5) 40/-U312 BIG FELLA THANKS 11-11-06 Tom George/Denis O'Regan 40-1

6) 1113-23 SEABASS (IRE) 10-11-06 Ted Walsh IRE/Katie Walsh 10-1

7) 0-1U355 ROBERTO GOLDBACK (IRE) 11-11-06 Nicky Henderson/Barry Geraghty 33-1

8) P012-5P SUNNYHILLBOY (IRE) 10-11-04 Jonjo O'Neill/Richie McLernon 16-1

9) 1/46-P03 BALLABRIGGS (IRE) 12-11-04 Donald McCain/Jason Maguire 20-1

10) 11-0620 TEAFORTHREE (IRE) 9-11-03 Rebecca Curtis/Nick Scholfield 14-1

11) 3-11201 ACROSS THE BAY (IRE) 9-11-02 Donald McCain/Henry Brooke 33-1

12) 1P3-02P JOIN TOGETHER (IRE) 8-11-02 Paul Nicholls/Daryl Jacob 16-1

13) 413-5211 COLBERT STATION (IRE) 9-11-01 Ted Walsh IRE/AP McCoy 12-1

14) 2P1536 FORPADYDEPLASTERER (IRE) 11-11-00 Thomas Cooper IRE/Andrew McNamara 66-1

15) P1/B1F-1 ON HIS OWN (IRE) 9-11-00 Willie Mullins IRE/Ruby Walsh 7-1

16) 0-35233 JONCOL (IRE) 10-10-13 Paul Nolan IRE/Robbie Power 50-1

17) P0F1-12 BALTHAZAR KING (IRE) 9-10-12 Philip Hobbs/Richard Johnson 20-1

18) 1334-22 CAPPA BLEU (IRE) 11-10-11 Evan Williams/Paul Moloney 11-1

19) 2/4-4U60 OSCAR TIME (IRE) 12-10-11 Martin Lynch IRE/Sam Waley-Cohen 66-1

20) 44001-00 ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 12-10-10 Peter Bowen/Tom O'Brien 40-1

21) 15U-606 TATENEN (FR) 9-10-10 Richard Rowe/Andrew Thornton 66-1

22) 423F-01 TREACLE (IRE) 12-10-09 Tom Taaffe IRE/Andrew Lynch 33-1

23) 011611 LOST GLORY (NZ) 8-10-08 Jonjo O'Neill/Mark Walsh 50-1

24) P-P1440 SWING BILL (FR) 12-10-08 David Pipe/Conor O'Farrell 66-1

25) U01-F430 SAINT ARE (FR) 7-10-08 Tim Vaughan/Dougie Costello 50-1

26) B-0U631 CHICAGO GREY (IRE) 10-10-07 Gordon Elliott IRE/Paul Carberry 12-1

27) 010F-605 QUISCOVER FONTAINE (FR) 9-10-07 Willie Mullins IRE/David Casey 40-1

28) 3B0-643 RARE BOB (IRE) 11-10-06 Dessie Hughes IRE/Bryan Cooper 20-1

29) 04-311P4 THE RAINBOW HUNTER 9-10-06 Kim Bailey/Aidan Coleman 66-1

30) F-63PP5 BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 10-10-06 Noel Glynn IRE/Martin Ferris 66-1

31) 12P-P00 HARRY THE VIKING 8-10-06 Paul Nicholls/Ryan Mahon 40-1

32) 2360264 MR MOONSHINE (IRE) 9-10-05 Sue Smith/Peter Buchanan 66-1

33) 1133FP MUMBLES HEAD (IRE) 12-10-04 Peter Bowen/Jamie Moore 100-1

34) 3F6042 NINETIETH MINUTE (IRE) 10-10-03 Tom Taaffe IRE/Niall Madden 66-1

35) 0P45F5 AURORAS ENCORE (IRE) 11-10-03 Sue Smith/Ryan Mania 66-1

36) P11420 TARQUINIUS (FR) 10-10-02 Gordon Elliott/K Renwick IRE 100-1

37) 614U40 ANY CURRENCY (IRE) 10-10-00 Martin Keighley/Ian Popham 66-1

38) 2P-265P MAJOR MALARKEY (IRE) 10-9-13 Nigel Twiston-Davies/Tom Scudamore 100-1

39) 621B-001 SOLL 8-9-12 Jo Hughes/Mark Grant 40-1

40) 023P25 VIKING BLOND (FR) 8-9-11 Nigel Twiston-Davies/Adam Wedge 66-1

RESERVES (if withdrawals before 10:00 BST on Friday)

000165 PENTIFFIC (NZ) 10-9-08 Venetia Williams 100-1

P-22150 MORTIMERS CROSS 12-9-06 John Needham 200-1
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So.... my final five.... the horses I have wagered my hard earned cash on....

Chicago Grey

Sunnyhill Boy

Teaforthree

Across The Bay

Colbert Station

I have two very small each way bets also as The ' You never know' bets after Day One of Aintree today saw some shake-ups Including a 100/1 winner...

Joncol

What A Friend

They are the one's that could just get lucky and get a place at 50/1 a piece....

There could be accidents, even a pile up.... I hope not...

May every 40 of them come home safe along with their riders.

Good luck to all who have a bet Saturday
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Today at Aintree we had some high and a low...

Sprinter Sacre, Dynaste, My Tent or Yours all won for me but we lost the classy Grade 1 Chaser Little Josh In the John Smith's Topham Chase following a fatal fall..

It was heartwarming to see Jockey Ruby Walsh get up and run to help the horse because he wasn't In contention...
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More later but...........

Only 17 of the 40 horses finished the race.......

The winner was the first win for Scotland.... a rank 66/1 outsider Auroras Encore

All 40 horses and riders are safe and not one casualty

That's all that matters. :guitarist:guitarist:guitarist Now protesters..... shut the feck up
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It's heartwarming tonight to see how many grooms, Jockey's and general racing pundits are on Facebook and Twitter so delighted that all 40 horses returned home safe. No-one cares about losing, just delighted that they are all safe.

In the race that has seen 22 horses die since 2000, we all know It can happen but the new measures put In place this year seem to have paid off.

I noticed horses clouting the fences pretty hard, something that would have possibly caused Injury before the padded toe boards were Introduced this year.

Not a total disaster for me with Teaforthree 3rd but have to say that I never saw the winner coming. I do believe however that a massive blunder at the last fence cost him the race.

Cappa Bleu came 2nd and ran magnificently

Across The Bay led all the way until his stamina just gave out.

Colbert Station decided to unseat champion Jockey AP McCoy at The Chair ( slight snigger )

What A Friend Pulled Up

Sunnyhill Boy Pulled Up

Joncol Pulled Up

Chicago Grey Massive blunder at the 3 rd fence which seem to roc his confidence and he went on to blunder again running an absolute s.hitter of a race...

40 ran, 17 finished.... tough race but my heartiest congratulations to Trainer, wife of ex showjumper Harvey Smith ( remember him ??? ) and connections of the winner.
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The pic on the left shows the last fence after two horses collided.... The fence Is absolutely demolished and the horses are unharmed.... It certainly proves that replacing the fences with Spruce has had a significant result this year.

2nd pic... The winner being brought Into the winners enclosure...

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