How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

Post by spot »

It's a puzzle, going back to the published figures and demonstrating the probability that the voting last month was rigged by outsiders.
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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

Post by Bryn Mawr »

spot;1504120 wrote: It's a puzzle, going back to the published figures and demonstrating the probability that the voting last month was rigged by outsiders.


More than a puzzle, almost an impossibility.
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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

Post by Ahso! »

In a sense all US elections are fixed. The fix is in the marketing campaign the corporate media outlets participate in. Had Clinton won a fix would still have given the office to her.

I understand Trump is an avid CNN viewer. The few times I've seen CNN's telecast on any monitor, it seems its been mostly slanted in an effort that might persuade Trump's outlook on Russia and the wars we're currently involved in.
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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

Post by Ahso! »

Bryn Mawr;1504135 wrote: More than a puzzle, almost an impossibility.I agree wholeheartedly, but even if it were true, who is America to complain with all the election interference we're guilty of in other countries.
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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

Post by LarsMac »

Well it sure needs to be fixed. It's been broken for a while.
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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

Post by spot »

Bryn Mawr;1504135 wrote: More than a puzzle, almost an impossibility.


I was thinking, if it was at the polling station level, the precincts that were interfered with would form a different bell curve to the others, within a given district. And only the polling stations with a specified range of equipment would be interfered with, and the test for whether your bell curves are true is whether they distinguish that limited set of polling stations.

If it's at the collated higher level then the test would be whether the reported numbers agree with what each precinct sent in. Given how easy that ought to be to check I thought it an unlikely place for the intervention.

The precincts sample is for Stevens County, Washington State.

Attached files precinct.txt (6.7 KB) 
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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

Post by Bryn Mawr »

spot;1504148 wrote: I was thinking, if it was at the polling station level, the precincts that were interfered with would form a different bell curve to the others, within a given district. And only the polling stations with a specified range of equipment would be interfered with, and the test for whether your bell curves are true is whether they distinguish that limited set of polling stations.

If it's at the collated higher level then the test would be whether the reported numbers agree with what each precinct sent in. Given how easy that ought to be to check I thought it an unlikely place for the intervention.


Trouble with that is the bell curve would vary at each polling station depending on the demographics covered which is, in practice, an unknown quantity.
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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

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Bryn Mawr;1504149 wrote: Trouble with that is the bell curve would vary at each polling station depending on the demographics covered which is, in practice, an unknown quantity.


The variations are what the bell curve consists of. I'm looking for two sets superimposed.

Go back a post for the sample data, we cross posted. I don't expect that data to include tampered voting.
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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

Post by Bryn Mawr »

spot;1504150 wrote: The variations are what the bell curve consists of. I'm looking for two sets superimposed.

Go back a post for the sample data, we cross posted. I don't expect that data to include tampered voting.


I didn't understand what the data represented. I presume that the text is the name of the polling station but what do the two numbers for each candidate represent?
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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

Post by spot »

Precinct number (= polling station) and votes cast.
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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

Post by Bryn Mawr »

spot;1504153 wrote: Precinct number (= polling station) and votes cast.


Then I still do not think it's sufficient to determine interference.

Even if you had the total number registered at each polling station or, going one stage further, the total number within those registered to each party then the unknown (unknowable?) differences in demographics would vary voting rates and candidate voted for more than the numbers required to fix the election.
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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

Post by spot »

I think if you plot the difference in votes in a precinct as a bar chart for all precincts from lowest to highest, and there are two superimposed bell curves, you'll see two peaks.

The states which, if there was a fix in favour of Trump, need scrutiny, are

Michigan, 0.22%

Pennsylvania, 0.73%

Wisconsin, 0.77%

Florida, 1.20%

and you can just normalize the size of the precincts and then plot every precinct from all four states onto a single graph.
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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

Post by Bryn Mawr »

spot;1504158 wrote: I think if you plot the difference in votes in a precinct as a bar chart for all precincts from lowest to highest, and there are two superimposed bell curves, you'll see two peaks.

The states which, if there was a fix in favour of Trump, need scrutiny, are

Michigan, 0.22%

Pennsylvania, 0.73%

Wisconsin, 0.77%

Florida, 1.20%

and you can just normalize the size of the precincts and then plot every precinct from all four states onto a single graph.


There would be too much scatter in such a plot to show such a difference.
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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

Post by spot »

The scatter, without tampering, would form a distinct bell curve - we do agree on that?

And if you tamper you'll shift the peak for those you tampered with, yes?

I'm aware of the scatter, I just think the curve absorbs it into a known distribution whatever it consists of.
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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

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My 'gut' feeling is that the results were accurate--with HC winning the popular based on cities and DT winning the electoral college based on rural. Since the electoral takes precedence over the popular...................:-5; IMO, no 'rigging' involved. Well, ain't that America...
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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

Post by gmc »

If it was fixed with how come hilary won the popular vote? If hilary had won the electoral vore no doubt the trump camp would be screaming fix at the top of their voices. The russians aren't being accused of tamperng with the voting they're being accused of releasing hacked e-mails. I can see why riussia would want trump to win though.

Ukip claimed they tampered with the eu referendum

Brexit poll: Ukip leader Nigel Farage claims Government rigged the EU referendum - Business - NZ Herald News
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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

Post by spot »

AnneBoleyn;1504165 wrote: My 'gut' feeling is that the results were accurate--with HC winning the popular based on cities and DT winning the electoral college based on rural. Since the electoral takes precedence over the popular...................:-5; IMO, no 'rigging' involved. Well, ain't that America...


I wouldn't question that were it not for the extent of the popular vote majority. 2.9 million votes is several times larger than I'd see as reasonable. The 2000 election where the popular vote also went against the electoral college, the popular vote majority was 543,895. I think the 2016 difference is so large as to at least raise the question, and the electronic voting system is a disgrace as far as security goes.
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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

Post by AnneBoleyn »

I never see anything wrong with raising the, or any, question. As my mom preached: "There are no dumb questions, only people too afraid to ask them."
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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

Post by spot »

To clarify, this thread isn't suggesting there was actually any tampering. What I invited was ideas on how to test whether or not there had been. I have no idea whether there was, though I think anyone who believes the existing electronic voting booths are secure is barking mad because these machines, together with the lack of an independent paper audit trail contemporary with the poll which should be openly spot-checked after the election and available indefinitely for court-ordered inspection, are an open invitation to tampering.
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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

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AnneBoleyn;1504165 wrote: My 'gut' feeling is that the results were accurate--with HC winning the popular based on cities and DT winning the electoral college based on rural. Since the electoral takes precedence over the popular...................:-5; IMO, no 'rigging' involved. Well, ain't that America...


Thankfully this isn't America.



I was still in school when I learned of the insanity of One man, one vote

Imagine, the formerly Great State of California had a Constitution which copied the US Constitution declared UNCONSTITUTIONAL.

Voter fraud?

Gerrymandering
What happened to Kamala Harris' campaign?
She had the black vote all locked up.
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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

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Gerrymandering is a Pox upon our nation & we must get rid of it.
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How to discover whether the US Presidential Election was fixed

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AnneBoleyn;1504236 wrote: Gerrymandering is a Pox upon our nation & we must get rid of it.


I don't know about Kansas, but when we lived in California. It was very frustrating to me.

We lived in a Republican district but that gave me no satisfaction as my vote was superfluous and the Mrs essentially disenfranchised.

We joke we vote to cancel the other vote.

I don't know how well it works but since then CA passed

California Citizens Redistricting Commission
What happened to Kamala Harris' campaign?
She had the black vote all locked up.

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