The 2014 Grand National

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Oscar Namechange
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The 2014 Grand National

Post by Oscar Namechange »

Here we go again folks... The greatest sporting spectacle on earth. Tis a wonderous sight watching 40 chasers hurtling over the first fence.

I'm not going to give you my final 5 shortlist until the final declarations are In around the beginning of April but already, some Interesting entrants In the first stage anti-post. However, at this stage, I can rule out 30 or so of them right now.

So, once again, I'm looking for an Irish bred and trained horse between the age of 9 and 12 years old. A horse who Is used to running In large fields of over or at least 16 runners.

He must have at least one win over 3 miles, have had at least one outing this season and have Ideally a no fall, no unseat, no pulled up and no refused fence record.... although I am willing to over-look one fall... every horse has a blip In his career.

What I can say this early on, Is there are two horses I have been waiting for news on as to their recovery following being out last season due to Injury.

So at this stage I am looking very seriously at Tim Vaughan's BESHABAR

Nicky Henderson's SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM

And Rebecca Curtis's TEAFORTHREE



I may just risk taking anti-post now with Teaforthree at 20/1

Beshabar 33/1

Shakalakaboomboom 66/1
At the going down of the sun and in the morning, we will remember them. R.L. Binyon
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Wolverine
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Post by Wolverine »

got my hopes up...

thought Buick was bringing back one of the most awesome cars ever produced

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Get your mind out of the gutter - it's blocking my view

Mind like a steel trap - Rusty and Illegal in 37 states.

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The 2014 Grand National

Post by Oscar Namechange »

Wolverine;1444250 wrote: got my hopes up...

thought Buick was bringing back one of the most awesome cars ever produced Nope, you've lost me
At the going down of the sun and in the morning, we will remember them. R.L. Binyon
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The 2014 Grand National

Post by Oscar Namechange »

Last years winner Auroras Encore Is out of the race after breaking a leg at Doncaster Saturday.

The good news Is, the leg has been pinned and he has now been retired. He'll spend the rest of his days with trainer and her husband, Harvey Smith ( he of two finger salute).
At the going down of the sun and in the morning, we will remember them. R.L. Binyon
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The 2014 Grand National

Post by Oscar Namechange »

In the past, I have found It relatively easy to get at least two In the first four, even the winner because until last year, the National was all about jumping.

With last years amendments to the fences those who didn't have a cat In hell's chance of even getting round the course, now need serious consideration. The emphasis on jumping ability has now switched to cruising speed and stamina given the course Is now a damn sight easier for a horse to get round and finish. However, I still firmly believe that experience will play a large part In the result.

This Is a reason I am of the mind that Beshabar and Shakalakaboomboom are good each way punts here.

Yet, one of the most vital Issue's as always, Is the weights, and I can take a serious look when these are declared Tuesday. I predict though that as my reccomendations have been out of action for some time, they will be the lower of the ratings which Is excellent for this race.

With the amendments, two horses who could benefit here are Own His Own who wan a blinder winning The Thyestes Chase and The Hennessy Winner Triolo D’Alene who could score even off a top weight...

We'll see Tuesday

The amendments to the course last year does mean we are seeing far more trainers risk their big guns and this year has seen record entries.
At the going down of the sun and in the morning, we will remember them. R.L. Binyon
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The 2014 Grand National

Post by Oscar Namechange »

Despite my repeating myself from elsewhere, I will continue with the Info here as I do know some you like to have a flutter on the Grand National.

The weights have been declared and I can now take a serious look at the contenders.... a few at a time due to time restraints here.

French horses are out. They are typically trained under 3 miles over lower fences. French horses statistically make more blunders at fences than other horses. You'll hear commentators say a French horse has ' brushed his way through the top' or ' banked a fence ( landed on top of It ) and this Is why. The French also just don't breed stamina Into their stock unlike by comparison the Irish by a sire such as ' Presenting' The only French horse to win the Grand National was Mon Mome In 2009 who was a one off. You have to go back a century to find the last before that. Neptune Collognes was UK trained by Paul Nichol's and It takes a good trainer to rid a horse of the ' French Factor',

So first up:

Tidal Bay heads the weights at 11 stone 10 lb. Statistically, horses winning over 11 stone 5 lbs are like hens teeth. Neptune Collognes won under 11 stone 6 lb In 2012, Don't Push It In 2010 under 11 stone 5 lb but prior you have to go back to the 1970's and to Red Rum.

If he pulls this off, It'll be the race of his life under this weight. Then there's the age factor. Statistically, teenagers have not fared well In this race and last year even with the amendments to the fences, out of the first six, not one was aged under 9 years old, and you have to go back 88 years to find the last winner over 12 years old. Tidal Bay now 13 years old, I believe will struggle to keep up with the 9-11 year olds who are In their prime.

Having said that, this horse has a massive fan base. The horse Is nothing short of a warrior and out of 42 starts, he claims 15 wins and 17 places. He's the epitome of the punters sure bet. He still ticks boxes statistically. A no fall record, Irish, has had an outing this season, coming a respectable 2 nd In the Irish Hennessy this month under 11 stone 10 lbs. He has the Aintree factor having run the course In his career and Is a seasoned Cheltenham stayer. Bags of stamina and hugely popular In racing circles with many fans willing the boy to pull It off, Including me.... I believe he'll stay the distance and may just nab a place, certainly In the top 10...... Don't forget folks, a long price place at a quarter of the odds Is better than a short priced loser.... Tidal Bay currently at 16/1 second favourite.... the bookies know a punters mate when they see him.

Long Run...11 stone 9 lbs What can I say ? I think this Is a massive mistake to enter this horse. Again, Lennie has a huge fan base but I believe the horse has been on the decline for some time. An awful performance at Wetherby last year, almost falling although great recovery. Totally outclassed In the Betfair Chase In November and couldn't even complete the course at Kempton In the King George In December unseating Waley-Cohen at the last but again, totally outpaced and tired In the last mile over 3 miles. I'll hazzard a guess that the Waley-Cohens have retirement In mind but hope to replicate Nichol's decision to throw Neptune Collognes at the biggest event In the hope he'd go out In a blaze of glory. He Is not used to running In large fields and having young Inexperienced horses falling around him and Sam Waley-Cohen an amateur jockey riding his pet, I don't believe has the experience to read the course full of 40 runners. ...25/1

Hunt Ball ( Hunty ) 11 stone 7 lbs. I'm not alone when we believed the biggest mistake Anthony Knott made was to sell Hunty to Equine Atlantic and a career In the USA. Again, the horse has a massive fan base Including me. After failing to Impress In the States although he did run a respectable 9th In the USA Grand National equivilent, the decision was made to bring him back to the UK last year and to Nicky Henderson's yard. He's just come out of quarantine and Is due for his first outing at Kelso this weekend as a prep race. The weight Is against him here but ticks many of the required boxes. 9 years old, Irish, no fall record, 18 starts, 9 wins, 5 places.travels well on good and heavy going, a seasoned Cheltenham stayer winning In March 2012 under 12 stone and has run In fields of 20 runners. He gets a tick from me for the first stage selections.....66/1 Be prepared for this to be cut shorter after his outing at the weekend..Irrelevent of winning, If he stays and keeps up the pace, the odds will shorten.

My gamble paid off... took 66/1 for anti-post as I said In my OP..... Shakalakaboomboom now cut to 25/1

Paddy Power pay for 5 places at one quarter of the odds.
At the going down of the sun and in the morning, we will remember them. R.L. Binyon
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The 2014 Grand National

Post by Oscar Namechange »

Roi Du Mee 9 stone 11 lb... This horse Impressed me greatly when winning at Down Royal In November under 11 stone 10 lb but since then he was pulled up In The Betfair and finished last In his last outing at Leopardstown... A French horse that I rule out. I don't think he can stay the 4 miles. A Thumbs down.

TRIOLO D’ALENE ... 11 stone 6 lbs..... Winner of The Hennessy Gold Cuo.... French and 7 years old... This Is going to rule him out for me as the winner but not for a place. He ticks some boxes, used to running In fields of 20 horses, has champion jockey Barry Garaghty on board, trained by Nicky Hnederson, 10 starts, 4 wins, 3 places, has had an outing this season winning over 3 miles. A candidate for last selections.

Rocky Creek 11 stone 5 lbs...Offically 8 years old now but will be 9 years old come March... Ticks a lot boxes, Irish, a no fall and no P/U record. has had an outing this season In January coming 2nd to The Giant Bolster, Trained by Paul Nichol's, 10 starts, 4 wins, 5 places, a consistent stayer over 3 miles and has The Aintree factor coming 3rd to Dynaste.... a thumbs up for a winning candidate,
At the going down of the sun and in the morning, we will remember them. R.L. Binyon
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The 2014 Grand National

Post by Oscar Namechange »

Some trials today for The Grand National.

First of all.... sack the commentator who called Kauto Stone, Kauto Star 4 times today... Muppet !!! Kauto Star's baby brother wouldn't have been able to beat Captain Chris today and for me, a dissappointing trial. Led from the front. A horse who pulls way too hard and difficult to manage. As of today, I feel he'll do exactly the same In the National. Lead from the front and tire rapidly around the 2 and a half mile mark.

Hunt Ball Hunty first outing since returning from the USA.... a respectable 3rd and although I don't believe he could have beaten Captain Chris today, I do believe that had the race been another half mile, he would have closed the gap. It does give him a nice little warm up and outing before the National. Jumped well and stayed the distance. Bookies keep him at 40/1

Teaforthree Although beaten Into 2nd today, he ran a blinding race..... he now goes In as 14/1 clear favourite and will have benefited greatly from this warm up.

Across The Bay was P/U today... he gets a thumbs down for the National from me.
At the going down of the sun and in the morning, we will remember them. R.L. Binyon
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Post by Oscar Namechange »

Katenko... I like this horse a lot and have backed him In the past. However, French, 8 years old and too Inexperienced with just 8 starts. A thumbs down.

Boston Bob 11 stone 3 lb...Another horse I like and ticks some boxes. Irish, 9 years old, seasoned Cheltenham runner, 12 starts, 7 wins, 2 places... howeverm fell twice last season.... maybe a wild card here for a place,

On His Own 11 stone 3 lb... Irish, 10 years old... but I don't trust his record. 17 starts, 7 wins, no places, 2 falls, a BD and a P/U....too unpredictable for me although used to running In large fields... a thumbs down

Bog Warrior 11 stone 2lb.... Irish, 10 years old, 14 starts, 8 wins, 1 place. Unseated rider last time out. 3 falls.... a thumbs down
At the going down of the sun and in the morning, we will remember them. R.L. Binyon
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Post by Oscar Namechange »

As Teaforthree heads the market as favourite, some further stats to consider.

Since 1970 there has only been 9 winners at odds under 10/1

On 30 occassions, since 1970, the winner has been 16/1

Only 5 female jockeys have managed to finish the course and no female jockey has ever won.

You have to go back to 1951 to find the last mar to win the GN

Only 3 Greys have won the GN

Statiscally this puts Teaforthree In all the boxes.

Irish, 10 years old, has The Aintree factor coming 3rd last year, within the weights, 10 stone 12 lb experienced with 20 starts, has had an outing this season coming second Saturday. Has run In fields of 40 runners, seasoned Cheltenham stayer, runs well on good/soft and heavy going. A no fall record throughout his career.

Both thumbs up from me.

If you're lucky enough to get this boy In a work syndicate or lottery, he'll attack those fences like the lion that he Is and he'll run his heart out for you. A warrior,
At the going down of the sun and in the morning, we will remember them. R.L. Binyon
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Post by Oscar Namechange »

Seabass 11 stone 2lbs. Certainly has The Aintree Factor coming 3rd In 2012 and 13th last year. Ticks a lot of boxes. Irish, 11 years old. Experienced chaser with 18 starts, 6 wins and 5 places. Last fell In 2010. Ridden by female jockey Katie Walsh. Likely to be In the top 10.

Kauto Stone Although trained by Paul Nichol's , this Is Kauto Star's French baby brother. 8 years old. As much as I'd love to see him do It just for being one of the smallest horses I've ever seen, I believe he's way too Inexperienced and will tire around the two and a half mile mark.

Mossey Joe 11 stone 1 lb.. Ticks boxes... Irish, 11 years old, Experienced chaser, 16 starts, 8 wins, 3 places. Has won on heavy and soft going on his last 4 outings over 3 miles plus. Hasn't had an outing this season yet but a thumbs up from me.

QUITO DE LA ROQUE 11 stone 1lb ... French. 10 years old... This may just be the French horse who bucks the trends. Experienced chaser with one fall I am willing to forgive. 23 starts, 9 wins, 6 places. Copes well with soft to heavy going and has run the Aintree course. Has had an outing this season In 18 runners. For me, a possible place.
At the going down of the sun and in the morning, we will remember them. R.L. Binyon
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Post by Oscar Namechange »

Cantlow 11 stone This fella may be the over-looked horse this year. Irish, 9 years old, has the Aintree factor, owned by JP McManus, a man who knows his breeding stock. This fella Is out of Kayf Tara, damn good stamina stock. 17 starts, 4 wins, 6 places. Has run In large fields and has a no fall, no P/U record. Came 2nd at Cheltenham In December... A thumbs up from me.

Colbert Station Another JP McManus entry. Sent champion jockey A.P McCoy crashing to the turf when he unseated In last years National. Also unseated McCoy at Nevan In December. Yet, I like this horse, however, 23 starts, just 5 wins and 4 places with 2 Unseats makes me give him a thumbs down.

Rubi Light French, 9 years old. Highest field of runners just 14. Mostly used to running In fields under 10 runners. 27 starts with just 6 firsts. Finished last on his last outing In February at Clonmel. A thumbs down.

TONER D’OUDAIRIES French, 32 starts but 7 years old... he'd re-write history If he pulled this off... a thumbs down

Walkon 11 stone, French 9 years old. 21 starts, 5 wins, 7 places. A little unpredictable for my liking. He unseated at Aintree In October and was pulled up In January of last season. A thumbs down
At the going down of the sun and in the morning, we will remember them. R.L. Binyon
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Post by Oscar Namechange »

Balthazar King 10 stone 13 lbs. Ordinarily I would dismiss any horse for this race that had 3 P/U and 3 falls In his career but I can over-look these In this boys case. Given that he's massively experienced for this race with 39 starts, 12 wins and 8 places.

He was Pulled up at Sandown In April last year but then went on to win In October and again In November. If ever there was a horse known as ' the comeback kid' then It has to be this boy. He's an absolute warrior who gives his all every time out. He holds a big fan base In racing circles.

Irish, 10 years old, has the Aintree Factor coming 15th In last years Grand National. Used to large fields and a seasoned Cheltenham stayer... a thumbs up for me.

Carlingford Lough An Irish 8 year old.. 19 starts, 6 wins, 5 places. Another JP McManus entry. Raced entirely on Irish turf and for me, doesn't have the Aintree nor Cheltenham factor. Unseated AP McCoy last time out In February and was P/U twice In 2013... A thumbs down from me.

Wayward Prince 10 stone 13 lbs. 22 starts, 6 wins, 6 places. Was Pulled at Aintree In December. 2 P/U's prior. Largest field 15 runners... just too Inexperienced for this race for me. A thumbs down

Cape Tribulation This horse Impressed me when he won at Aintree In 2012 but unfortunately, since then, he's not fired. Was Pulled up In November and with just 7 starts, 1 win and 1 place, for me, too Inexperienced.. A thumbs down

Mr Moonshine 10 stone 12 lbs Irish, 10 years old. With 30 starts and just 6 wins, 9 places, this may make me hmmm but the horse Is consistent winning last time out In February. He was Pulled up In last years Grand National but with the amendments to the course and the jumps, I feel he may just make the first 10. He did come 4th at Aintree In October and won last time on heavy going. A possible place I feel.
At the going down of the sun and in the morning, we will remember them. R.L. Binyon
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Post by Oscar Namechange »

Very flattered to get a message saying my assessment of the entries Is Informative and Interesting... I'll carry on.
At the going down of the sun and in the morning, we will remember them. R.L. Binyon
shinning_like_me
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Post by shinning_like_me »

Well it seems female Jockeys are not good at derby, or Horse Riding
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Post by Oscar Namechange »

shinning_like_me;1450994 wrote: Well it seems female Jockeys are not good at derby, or Horse Riding


No female jockey has won the Grand National, however, the UK has a whole host of successful winning female jockeys.
At the going down of the sun and in the morning, we will remember them. R.L. Binyon
peleus
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Post by peleus »

Which horse is hot right now if I may ask? I have a few ones to unload.
Never quit.
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FourPart
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Post by FourPart »

An each way bet one one of Oscar's seems promising at the moment.
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Post by Oscar Namechange »

FourPart;1465160 wrote: An each way bet one one of Oscar's seems promising at the moment. Thank you... that's a nice thing to say...

What can I say... back Penalty Scorer to come second :wah:

It's funny that because there's a National Hunt horse just retired called Forpaddydeplasterer

His form used to look like this:

122222222222222222222

Twas an easy bet.... back the field to beat him... the bookies hated us :wah:
At the going down of the sun and in the morning, we will remember them. R.L. Binyon

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