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Post by gmc »

Hoon and Hewitt challenge Brown's leadership


Hoon and Hewitt challenge Brown's leadership - UK Politics, UK - The Independent

Secret ballot indeed-I hear they have a plank of wood lined up as an alternative and hope the electorate won't notice the switch. They better hurry up before the rest of the party members leave in despair.
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Post by Oscar Namechange »

gmc;1279763 wrote: Hoon and Hewitt challenge Brown's leadership - UK Politics, UK - The Independent

Secret ballot indeed-I hear they have a plank of wood lined up as an alternative and hope the electorate won't notice the switch. They better hurry up before the rest of the party members leave in despair.
You speak too soon. It's all horribly backfired on the back-stabbing pair. The Cabinet supported Brown and left them looking stupid.

The Tories are now only 9% ahead of Labour In the Polls, not enough for a Majority in the General Election. Looks like Brown for another 5 years.
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Post by spot »

I rather liked yesterday's description of Geoff Hoon as "a serial backstabber". He always was incompetent and he obviously still is.

It made headlines for a day, that's the end of it. All over, nobody hurt.
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Post by Raven »

oscar;1279831 wrote: You speak too soon. It's all horribly backfired on the back-stabbing pair. The Cabinet supported Brown and left them looking stupid.

The Tories are now only 9% ahead of Labour In the Polls, not enough for a Majority in the General Election. Looks like Brown for another 5 years.
I personally think everyone is in for a terribly big suprise come election time. Exciting innit!!
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Post by spot »

Raven;1279897 wrote: I personally think everyone is in for a terribly big suprise come election time. Exciting innit!!


I'm sure you're right.

Shall we make bets on the result?

I reckon an overall majority of 30 to Labour.

We could bet on when, too. First Thursday of May?
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Post by Clodhopper »

Liberal Democat Overall Majority. Yeah!

I'm prepared to bet all my Icelandic savings on it.
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Post by spot »

Clodhopper;1279912 wrote: Liberal Democat Overall Majority. Yeah!

I'm prepared to bet all my Icelandic savings on it.


I will, as it happens, be voting Liberal Democrat. That doesn't mean I want the current administration to fall.
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Post by gmc »

I'm scunnered with the lot of them:-5:-5

At least thatcher had enough character to really detest.
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Post by Clodhopper »

Dear Vincent Cable, Oh, dear Vince

You're more Full Fat than Lean Beef Mince.

We don't want Brown or "Camera-On"

Who'd nick the plate the food's put on.

You want a good meal on your table?

Vote Lib Dem - vote for Vince Cable!
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Post by Raven »

spot;1279907 wrote: I'm sure you're right.



Shall we make bets on the result?



I reckon an overall majority of 30 to Labour.



We could bet on when, too. First Thursday of May?
I think it all depends on what they say about the NHS. Remember it is the largest employer of the UK. If anyone starts saying 'cut the budget' means that majority goes to the party that says 'preserve what is there'.

I'll take your bet on that. 30 to Labour? Noway. I would say a conglomerate of conserative, Lib Dem, and Greens.

If the Raving Looney Party runs, I would bet on them frankly.

One thing that is a safe bet, Britain is P'd off!
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Post by Snowfire »

gmc;1279763 wrote: Hoon and Hewitt challenge Brown's leadership - UK Politics, UK - The Independent

Secret ballot indeed-I hear they have a plank of wood lined up as an alternative and hope the electorate won't notice the switch. They better hurry up before the rest of the party members leave in despair.


I'm wondering whether this "plank of wood" might not be a good choice, given the vegetation that adorns the Government at the moment
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Post by gmc »

Raven;1279944 wrote: I think it all depends on what they say about the NHS. Remember it is the largest employer of the UK. If anyone starts saying 'cut the budget' means that majority goes to the party that says 'preserve what is there'.

I'll take your bet on that. 30 to Labour? Noway. I would say a conglomerate of conserative, Lib Dem, and Greens.

If the Raving Looney Party runs, I would bet on them frankly.

One thing that is a safe bet, Britain is P'd off!


Just how pissed off we are i don't think the political establishment appreciate. At one point I would have thought the SNP would wipe the floor with labour at the next election now I'm not so sure-they're proving to be just as corrupt as labour at a local level and just as ready to let big business **** on us when money is involved.
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Post by Clodhopper »

I'm wondering if the Financial Crisis has saved the Union? (Whether the Union is worth saving may be a different matter)
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Post by Raven »

gmc;1279993 wrote: Just how pissed off we are i don't think the political establishment appreciate. At one point I would have thought the SNP would wipe the floor with labour at the next election now I'm not so sure-they're proving to be just as corrupt as labour at a local level and just as ready to let big business **** on us when money is involved.
Totally agree. All it would take is a grass roots 'good 'ol boy' to sweep the vote from all the main parties. They think people are stupid. Thats where they will fall on their faces. One good facebook campaign and it's all over for the main parties this election.
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Post by Bryn Mawr »

spot;1279907 wrote: I'm sure you're right.

Shall we make bets on the result?

I reckon an overall majority of 30 to Labour.

We could bet on when, too. First Thursday of May?


I propose a sweep on the turnout rather than the result - one in three would be my guess.
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Post by Clodhopper »

All it would take is a grass roots 'good 'ol boy' to sweep the vote from all the main parties.


That's the core of my concern at this election with the BNP.
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Post by Raven »

Clodhopper;1280013 wrote: That's the core of my concern at this election with the BNP.
People are very angry. I think this will be a robust election with a high turn out. I think people will vote simply because the government is counting on them NOT to!
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Post by Bryn Mawr »

Raven;1280016 wrote: People are very angry. I think this will be a robust election with a high turn out. I think people will vote simply because the government is counting on them NOT to!


Not convinced - unless this grass roots, good old boy stands to offer a viable alternative I think they'll stay away in droves because they're sick of the lot of them.
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Post by Raven »

I think too much has happened to support the idea of apathy now. I can see the facebook campaign to vote coming. Everyone is going to urge for something new. They are sick of the lot thats in there for sure.
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Post by Bryn Mawr »

Raven;1280028 wrote: I think too much has happened to support the idea of apathy now. I can see the facebook campaign to vote coming. Everyone is going to urge for something new. They are sick of the lot thats in there for sure.


Sick of every last one of the ones in Westminster at the moment but how do you vote for something new when it's the same set of pillocks on offer next time round?

Voting change for change sake knowing than the new lot are no different gets you nowhere.
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Post by Raven »

Okay, lets say for example, you yourself decides to run as an independent for your borough, how would you begin?

If you truly want change you have to be willing to stand up and make it happen. Americans understand this. But that is where it all falls down here. Nobody has the confidence to stand up and change things, and probably because they think the main parties are too big and entrenched. And that is EXACTLY what they want you to think. But they are not. Start with the local level, and work up.
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Post by spot »

It can be done when there's a vital local issue under discussion, like closing the hospital at Kidderminster last time round or Gorgeous George fighting back in Tower Hamlets. Even someone as electable as John Smeaton failed in the Glasgow by-election last year. There has to be an overriding reason for a constituency to go for an independent.
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Post by Bryn Mawr »

Raven;1280665 wrote: Okay, lets say for example, you yourself decides to run as an independent for your borough, how would you begin?

If you truly want change you have to be willing to stand up and make it happen. Americans understand this. But that is where it all falls down here. Nobody has the confidence to stand up and change things, and probably because they think the main parties are too big and entrenched. And that is EXACTLY what they want you to think. But they are not. Start with the local level, and work up.


Until people are prepared to say NO to the main parties standing as an independent is not viable - either you are fighting on a specific local issue (if there is one in your area) or you are marginalised as a lone voice in the wilderness.

I am finally coming round to supporting Proportional Representation as the only way of breaking the monopoly - I know, late to the party again :-)
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Post by spot »

Bryn Mawr;1280690 wrote: Until people are prepared to say NO to the main parties standing as an independent is not viable - either you are fighting on a specific local issue (if there is one in your area) or you are marginalised as a lone voice in the wilderness.

I am finally coming round to supporting Proportional Representation as the only way of breaking the monopoly - I know, late to the party again :-)


You're wrong, and I'll tell you why you're wrong.

PR can only work at a national level if there are party lists of most-wanted to least-wanted candidates. There's no way to eject despised figures like William Waldegrave or Michael Portillo or Chris Patten in those circumstances, they're guaranteed a seat. As someone who threw one of those out of politics I'd be extremely unhappy to lose the opportunity in future.

PR on a constituency basis is another thing entirely, by all means go for that but it's not what most people consider to be PR if you don't qualify it.
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Post by Oscar Namechange »

Raven;1280665 wrote: Okay, lets say for example, you yourself decides to run as an independent for your borough, how would you begin?

If you truly want change you have to be willing to stand up and make it happen. Americans understand this. But that is where it all falls down here. Nobody has the confidence to stand up and change things, and probably because they think the main parties are too big and entrenched. And that is EXACTLY what they want you to think. But they are not. Start with the local level, and work up. I am standing In the Election. I won't win due to our local MP having a safe seat and a vast amount of Gerrymandering. I am not Interested In the wider Issue's as I will leave the elected Politicians to those. As far as I'm concerned, It is about local Issue's and what concerns the electorate on a day to day basis in the Constituancy. Some times It does take more courage to stand up and say 'This Is what I want for my Country' and be damned with other people's opinions of which Party your are representing. The Country will not be v oting for me, only locals who know me and know what I strive for In our community.
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Post by spot »

oscar;1280802 wrote: and a vast amount of Gerrymandering


Perhaps you'd like to expand on that? What aspect of the Kingswood boundaries persuades you that it's the case? Or are you discussing the nature of FPTP nationally?
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Post by gmc »

spot;1280704 wrote: You're wrong, and I'll tell you why you're wrong.

PR can only work at a national level if there are party lists of most-wanted to least-wanted candidates. There's no way to eject despised figures like William Waldegrave or Michael Portillo or Chris Patten in those circumstances, they're guaranteed a seat. As someone who threw one of those out of politics I'd be extremely unhappy to lose the opportunity in future.

PR on a constituency basis is another thing entirely, by all means go for that but it's not what most people consider to be PR if you don't qualify it.


They're guaranteed a seat at present-we are also -guaranteed that either the Tories or labour will have enough seats to from a majority I parliament with less than a third of the electorate voting for them. 100% of the power with 33% support. We are paying dearly for our electoral system and will continue to do so until it is changed. The tories in scotland now think it a good idea-why? because without it they would not have any seats at all, without it we would still have the labour mafia in charge-with it the parties have to pay attention and the last scottish parliament election scared the **** out of labour, finally they have to listen and not just be able to count on apathy getting them re-elected.

It would be the same nationally-our parliament is no longer scared of the electorate we need to break this your turn my turn routine they have got in to.
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Post by spot »

gmc;1280863 wrote: It would be the same nationally-our parliament is no longer scared of the electorate we need to break this your turn my turn routine they have got in to.


I gave three important examples of cabinet ministers being thrown out of politics by the electorate, I'm not sure why you think they're guaranteed a seat.

The alternative you're describing is a succession of weak hung parliaments. I'd rather avoid that.
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Post by gmc »

spot;1280872 wrote: I gave three important examples of cabinet ministers being thrown out of politics by the electorate, I'm not sure why you think they're guaranteed a seat.

The alternative you're describing is a succession of weak hung parliaments. I'd rather avoid that.


No it's not. That is red herring much beloved of opponents to PR. Besides i think i;d ratye5 a hung parliament than a strong government run by idiots-look at the last four decades and try to tell me you think we have been netter off with strong government.
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Post by spot »

gmc;1280879 wrote: No it's not. That is red herring much beloved of opponents to PR.


What makes you think so? I'd take it to be a mathematical function. Again, are you talking about PR within a single constituency or are you talking about balancing the total representation to the national proportion of the vote? If it's the latter then you get a hung parliament every time the top party fails to secure at least 50% of the national turnout. When did that last happen?

I think you need to at least state the PR model you're advocating, so we can analyse the consequence a bit. We could use Proportional representation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia as a common background. Closed party lists are anathema as far as I'm concerned. Letting the lunatic fringes into parliament is a worrying idea, given the nature of the national press. I think we need a responsible informative neutral national press far more than we need electoral reform.
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Post by Bryn Mawr »

spot;1280887 wrote: What makes you think so? I'd take it to be a mathematical function. Again, are you talking about PR within a single constituency or are you talking about balancing the total representation to the national proportion of the vote? If it's the latter then you get a hung parliament every time the top party fails to secure at least 50% of the national turnout. When did that last happen?

I think you need to at least state the PR model you're advocating, so we can analyse the consequence a bit. We could use Proportional representation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia as a common background. Closed party lists are anathema as far as I'm concerned. Letting the lunatic fringes into parliament is a worrying idea, given the nature of the national press. I think we need a responsible informative neutral national press far more than we need electoral reform.


Rather than a hung parliament (which I agree you would get every time) I think you'd see the parties fragmenting and the fragments spreading across the political spectrum. The resulting coalition would then more accurately reflect the wishes of the population.
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Post by spot »

If you consider what it's done to Israel in terms of allowing small single-issue groups to dictate that area of policy, I think you'd find it rather scary.
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Post by Oscar Namechange »

spot;1280856 wrote: Perhaps you'd like to expand on that? What aspect of the Kingswood boundaries persuades you that it's the case? Or are you discussing the nature of FPTP nationally?


The boundaries of Kingswood Parliamentary Constituency will change at the next election. Frome Vale, Hillfields, Staple Hill and Downend will no longer be part of Kingswood. However, parts of Hanham, Bitton and Oldland Common that are currently in Wansdyke constituency will come into Kingswood.

Do you think the mass building on Greenbelt in Emerson Green and proposed builds on Siston Common are nothing more than co-incidence?
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Post by spot »

oscar;1280955 wrote: The boundaries of Kingswood Parliamentary Constituency will change at the next election. Frome Vale, Hillfields, Staple Hill and Downend will no longer be part of Kingswood. However, parts of Hanham, Bitton and Oldland Common that are currently in Wansdyke constituency will come into Kingswood.

Do you think the mass building on Greenbelt in Emerson Green and proposed builds on Siston Common are nothing more than co-incidence?


The last person to interfere with the voting tendency of residents fled to Israel when she was handed a £22 million fine, if I remember the details right. I'd be amazed if the new estates had anything to do with gerrymandering.

The adjustment of constituency boundaries stems from regional shifts in the electoral roll, nothing else. How it's accomplished might occasionally lead to cries of foul play but the people protesting have a stake in the result too.

Refusing to adjust boundaries in response to changes in the electoral roll causes rotten boroughs. There was a struggle to stop those too, once. Steering a middle course is the answer.
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Post by Oscar Namechange »

spot;1280963 wrote: The last person to interfere with the voting tendency of residents fled to Israel when she was handed a £22 million fine, if I remember the details right. I'd be amazed if the new estates had anything to do with gerrymandering.

The adjustment of constituency boundaries stems from regional shifts in the electoral roll, nothing else. How it's accomplished might occasionally lead to cries of foul play but the people protesting have a stake in the result too.

Refusing to adjust boundaries in response to changes in the electoral roll causes rotten boroughs. There was a struggle to stop those too, once. Steering a middle course is the answer.
I do tend to agree with you.

This will be an Interesting Constituancy to watch in the election. The current Incumbant is looking for his 20th return. From the canvassing we have been doing, the general feeling is one of despair for him. The closure of our local Hospital, the closure of Kingswood Police Station and the failure to stop more Greenbelt dissapearing to new builds especially on Siston Common has done his no favours although he puts on a front of making the right noises in the right places. It would like a swing to the Tories but the General feeling again, while out canvassing is lack of trust In the candidate who I know well but Is very young. I personally feel the Lib Dems will witness a blood bath in the Constituancy and we will see votes going to alternative parties. Also watch out for my cousin who is Standing for Labour in the Lockleaze area.
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Post by gmc »

spot;1280940 wrote: If you consider what it's done to Israel in terms of allowing small single-issue groups to dictate that area of policy, I think you'd find it rather scary.


The way things are are bloody awful. We need electoral change and yes we can argue about the best way but the fact is both the main parties have a vested interest in keeping the status quo. God forbod they should ever be in favour of accountable democracy. People who object to PR almost invariable come up with spurious reasons usuall;y intended to change the object away fropm the need for reform. Germany had PR imposed on it to prevent a situation where a party with a minority vote ends up with the majority of the seats and is able to take power. We've gone from parliamentary democracy to cabinet government to a ludicrous situation where the PM thinks they have presidential powers.

Yes you can point to PR systems that don't work for one reason or another but I don't really care what we have is failing us and it's about time we had a change to stop a party machine being able to decide who gets elected. Most people don't vote out of despair that it makes no difference.

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Post by spot »

At least tell us what your preferred PR system for electing the UK government is, so we can assume it further down the thread. The options which fall under the same banner are wildly different in their consequence.
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Post by gmc »

spot;1281209 wrote: At least tell us what your preferred PR system for electing the UK government is, so we can assume it further down the thread. The options which fall under the same banner are wildly different in their consequence.


I don't have any strong preference at the moment since it's highly unlikely we will get it but the one used in the Scottish parliament elections seems to work OK-a kind of hybrid first past the post and a transferrable vote

Voting system for the Scottish Parliament

The tories would have no seats at all without it which is why they are now keen on it. It also broke the hold of the labour mafia that would be running the place otherwise. It's quite funny watching the their frustration and disbelief
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Post by spot »

spot;1279907 wrote: Shall we make bets on the result?

I reckon an overall majority of 30 to Labour.

We could bet on when, too. First Thursday of May?


That's one bit right, eh. How's the other looking?
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Post by gmc »

spot;1301963 wrote: That's one bit right, eh. How's the other looking?


Sadly looking very likely. Yet again we will have a government that the vast majority of the population do not support. Only a complete half wit can still argue we have democracy in this country.
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Post by Amythest »

YouTube - How Dictators spread Democracy
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Post by spot »

gmc;1302021 wrote: Sadly looking very likely. Yet again we will have a government that the vast majority of the population do not support. Only a complete half wit can still argue we have democracy in this country.


This is a new use of "vast majority" which I've never seen before. If that's the case, they'll lose.

Majority, yes. Vast, no.

No party enjoys the confidence of the majority of the electorate.
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Post by gmc »

spot;1302032 wrote: This is a new use of "vast majority" which I've never seen before. If that's the case, they'll lose.

Majority, yes. Vast, no.

No party enjoys the confidence of the majority of the electorate.


You surprise me it is a phrase in common parlance.

From the oxford english dictionary

vast

• adjective of very great extent or quantity; immense.

— DERIVATIVES vastly adverb vastness noun.

— ORIGIN Latin vastus ‘void, immense’.


Vast Majority

. Possibly the most over-used, tired and tautological phrases ever to have survived in the English language. 2. Majority: The greater number or part; a number more than half of the total. 3. Vast: Very great in size, number, amount, or quantity.


I would put it to you that having more than 60%, indeed it was almost 70% of the electorate vote against new labour I think it a reasonable assertion that a vast majority of the population did not want the present incumbent on number 10 or his party in power. If labour get in a gain despite polling less than a third of the votes it is a travesty that should annoy the most reasonable of individuals.
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Post by spot »

gmc;1302047 wrote: I would put it to you that having more than 60%, indeed it was almost 70% of the electorate vote against new labour


9,562,122 voted Labour, 8,772,598 Conservative and 5,981,874 Liberal. Overall 27,110,727 voted from an electorate of 44,226,000.

64.3% of those who voted supported parties other than Labour.

78.4% of those with a vote failed to support Labour.

17,112,000 enfranchised people failed to cast their vote at all. In Australia they'd have been fined, I think.

Perhaps voting should be obligatory.

Whatever the system, I still think the party with the highest vote should govern. Coalitions give too much power to the single-interest groups.
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Post by gmc »

spot;1302054 wrote: 9,562,122 voted Labour, 8,772,598 Conservative and 5,981,874 Liberal. Overall 27,110,727 voted from an electorate of 44,226,000.

64.3% of those who voted supported parties other than Labour.

78.4% of those with a vote failed to support Labour.

17,112,000 enfranchised people failed to cast their vote at all. In Australia they'd have been fined, I think.

Perhaps voting should be obligatory.

Whatever the system, I still think the party with the highest vote should govern. Coalitions give too much power to the single-interest groups.


No it doesn't that's one of the myths spread around by opponents of PR. You seriously argue that a system where 78% of the people get ignored is better?

One thing proportional representation does do is prevent a party with a minority of the overall vote being able to from a government because they got the most seats in a first past the post system - exactly what we have here. Constituency by constituency the candidate with the highest number of votes wins even if the majority voted against them and those who don;t want that candidate can't do anything about being effectively disenfranchised. That is not democracy however you try and justify it, rather it's a kind of elected dictatorship with both parliament and the cabinet now sidelined. Blair could have been stopped at any time and if MP's had had to worry about losing their seats maybe he would have been.

Thatcher never had mass support and neither do new labour and look at what has happened to us over the last three decades maybe coalition governments might have stopped the excesses of both parties

17,112,000 enfranchised people failed to cast their vote at all. In Australia they'd have been fined, I think.


A lot of people don't bother because they feel it is pointless as their vote won't change anything.
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Post by spot »

gmc;1302076 wrote: No it doesn't that's one of the myths spread around by opponents of PR.


How about I'll give an example or two and you come up with a counter-example?

Israel, and the power of the ultra-religious parties with fewer than 5 members. If you'd like instances I'll post them.

Italy, and the rate of coalition crashes through the 1970s and 1980s. A generation of paralysed governance.

Now, what examples of coalition government can you offer which have been stable and productive?

I seriously argue that a system where 78% of the people get ignored is better than perpetual coalitions composed of party-list members who can't ever be voted out of the assembly.
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Post by Bruv »

I am always bemused by people wanting PR.

I always equate it with a business run by a committee, or the old caricature of the Liberals, compromise, compromise,with no definitive direction.

As much as I hated Thatcher at the time, I like to see such a hardheaded leader emerge right now.
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Post by spot »

Bruv;1302104 wrote: As much as I hated Thatcher at the time, I like to see such a hardheaded leader emerge right now.


We had one but he got elected Speaker.

I'd quite like to see William Hague take a turn as PM, he has a lot of value.
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Post by Bryn Mawr »

Bruv;1302104 wrote: I am always bemused by people wanting PR.

I always equate it with a business run by a committee, or the old caricature of the Liberals, compromise, compromise,with no definitive direction.

As much as I hated Thatcher at the time, I like to see such a hardheaded leader emerge right now.


I'm coming more and more to the opinion that a parliament with 600+ different parties forming ad-hoc coalitions on a vote by vote basis is the closest we'll come to democracy.

The Thatcher government was more akin to a time limited dictatorship than a democracy.
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Post by Oscar Namechange »

spot;1302108 wrote: We had one but he got elected Speaker.

I'd quite like to see William Hague take a turn as PM, he has a lot of value.


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